Presentation on theme: "® The Future of Intelligence: Not Federal, Not Secret, Not Expensive Robert David Steele Fall 2004 A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas."— Presentation transcript:
® The Future of Intelligence: Not Federal, Not Secret, Not Expensive Robert David Steele Fall 2004 A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson
® 9-11: Systemic Failure THE ONLY THING THAT WORKED RIGHT ON 9-11 WAS INFORMED CITIZENS COUNTER-ATTACKING ON THEIR OWN.
® Conclusion First Local cops are key to spotting/neutralizing terrorism at home Local observation & collection is one-half to two-third of the preventive policing answerbottom-up intelligence Community Intelligence Centers, $30M per state per year at FOC, are the hub of the seven tribe wheel Open Source Agency, $1.5B at FOC, is the one transformative tool we can deploy right now Done right, we can redirect $30B/Year from secret collection to state & local & regional intelligence, and $200B/Year from a largely useless heavy metal military to soft power capabilities. Its not going to happen until Governors & Mayors raise hell. Now, in the second term with a majority on the Hill, is our time.
® Seven Intelligence Tribes: The Way Ahead Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGO & Media Religions & Clans
® State of the Tribes Today National 50% Military 40% Business 30% Academic 30% Law Enforcement 20% NGO-Media 20% Religious 20% We have much to do.
® TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW Bottom-Up and Peer-to-Peer
® Future is NOT Federal TODAY (Per Year) $50B/Federal TOMORROW (Per Year) $5B/International $5B/Regional $20B/Federal $5B/State $5B/Local $10B/Non-State Actors Bottom Line: All levels of government have major role to play.
® Future is NOT Secret $50B for secrets, $250M for open sources, yet open sources answer 40% of the need. Imagine $5B for open sources displacing $30B for secrets, the balance then available for distribution. From terrorism to proliferation to illegal immigration to disease, 90% of what we need to know is not secretwe simply have to pay attention 24/7 in 29+ languages. We also have to share easily, without baloney.
® Future is NOT Expensive Leadership is freeyou just do it. Sharing is freeyou just do it. Thinking is freeyou just do it. Keys to victory are: –Bottom-up police empowerment –Seven tribes harnessed at every level –Nail Congress now, before Christmas
® Shockingly Dysfunctional IC: $50B a year in waste & mismanagement Collect 10% of what we need to know Lose 80% of that in processing failures Analysts young, isolated from reality Management guilty of bureaucratic treason Political process extremely corrupt Public interest has been betrayed
® History of Failure 1947 Flawed by designPentagon opposed 1949 CIA, State, Pentagon fighting daily 1955 CI & Language bad, OSINT bad 1961 Failures in planning, coordination 1971 Grotesquely expensive, duplicative 1976 DCI needs budget power, OSINT bad 1992 DCI needs budget power, OSINT bad
® DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Collection Failure Breakdown in Coverage and Language Access
® 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
® Analysis Failure Breakdown in Thinking & Mindset Analysts end up with 2% of the relevant data Analysts have no historical, cultural, or religious context Analysts can safely be ignored because their findings are secret Managers are weak
® Leadership Failure From Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney defeating intelligence reform in 1992, to a series of DCIs refusing the implement the Aspin-Brown recommendations of 1996, our last fifteen years are marked by leadership that focuses more on protecting their budgets than protecting the Nation. Current IC leadership continues to resist
® Global Threats to Local Survival *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries
® Military Cannot Defend USA $500K = $500B cost $1 = $1M cost to us Terrorists can keep this up forever –Exploding ships –Exploding tunnels –Exploding buildings –50 caliber bullets into Power generators Pipelines
® Four Different Threats to America: Require Four Different Security Approaches PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (BIG WAR) LOW TECH BRUTES (GANGS) HIGH TECH SEERS (HOME) LOW TECH SEERS (POOR) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR
® Taxpayer Dollars Focused on 10% of the Threat
® New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need huge increase in soft power capabilities 50% 15% 20% 15% 250B vs. 500B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 36B CINCWARCINCSOLICCINCPEACECINCHOME Strategic NBCSmall WarsState/USIAIntelligence Big War(s)ConstabularyPeace CorpsBorder Patrol Ground TruthEconomic AidPort Security 1iii Electronic Reserve Environment Public HealthReserve
® New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
® Leveraging Best Practices: The Generic & The Esoteric Generic to All Tribes Open Source Collection Multi-media processing Analytic toolkits Analytic tradecraft Operations security Defensive counterintelligence Leadership skills Training & culture skills Unique to Some Tribes National clandestine & covert collection, offensive CI Military targeting, mobility Police arrest & interrogation Business fiscal accountability Media attention-getting skills NGO humanitarian values Religious faith-based insights Ethnic blood-based insights
® Localizing Intelligence: Transfer resources & process Community Intelligence Centers Community Information Commons Community Open Decision Networks Digital Marshall Plan to every corner of globe –Empowers local population with global access –Makes local information digital at least cost –Converts neighborhood watch into global watch
® Globalizing Intelligence: A Geneva Convention for Information International convention on open source software and transparent stable Application Program Interfaces (API) XML Geo is fundamental--every datum in every medium, every language, every device ISO standards for generic intelligence collection, analysis, counterintelligence, covert action ISO standards for data security & privacy that empower software and marginalize hardware
® OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Local Hubs & World Brain: Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams
® Focus of Global Effort Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now) 30% Need, 20% Cost Daily/Weekly Reports 40% Need, 10% Cost Shared Among Tribes Partial Sharing Tribal Secret Top Secret
® U.S. Intelligence Reform Cant Have Smart Spies in a Dumb Nation XML Geo and XML Security Standards National Analysis Agency (CIA Re-Focus) National Processing Agency (NSA Re-Focus) National Collection Agency (NRO Re-Focus) New Clandestine Service Agency New Homeland Counterintelligence Agency New Community Intelligence Centers (Each State/City) New Open Source Agency ($1.5B/Yr)