BAS I C BASIC Vulnerability and Adaptation in Coastal Zones of India Lessons from Indias NATCOM D.Parthasarathy, K.Narayanan, and A.Patwardhan Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay

BASI C BAS I C Assessment of vulnerability of coastal zones to climate related natural hazards Climate related hazards in coastal zones tropical cyclones, sea level rise, temperature and precipitation changes Trends & patterns of incidence of these hazards identified General impacts of tropical cyclones on human socio- economic systems in the coastal zones Identification of districts most vulnerable to extreme events (storms & severe storms)

Profile of coastal zones of India: Important and critical region for India, endowed with a coastline of over 7500 km 3 of 4 major Indian metropolitan cities are located in the coastal region (Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai). Total area occupied by coastal districts: sq. km, with an average population density of 455 persons per sq. km, (about 1.5 times the national average of 324) BAS I C BASI C

Socio-economic and geophysical features of the Indian coastline: Historical assessment of key climate related issues in the Indian coastal zones. BAS I C BASI C

BASIC BAS I C Exposure – Uncertainty – Risk Vulnerability - Adaptation

Components of exposure - population and housing stock classified by material of construction BASIC BASIC EXPOSURE

Vulnerability encompasses exposure to risk, hazards, shocks and stress, difficulty in coping with contingencies, and access to assets. Vulnerability refers to a situation when certain groups in society are more vulnerable than others to shocks that threaten their livelihood and/or survival. This has two elements: the severity of the impact of the shock (the more severe the impact if the risk is not managed, the higher the vulnerability), a persons resilience to a given shock (the higher their resilience, the lower their vulnerability): resilience is an indicator of adaptive capacity. BAS I C BASIC VULNERABILITY

BASIC BAS I C Socio-economic dimension of vulnerability Socio-economic status of a group closely linked to the adaptive capacity of that particular group.

BASIC BAS I C Many factors contribute to social and economic vulnerability at the level of a region rapid population growth, poverty and hunger, poor health, low levels of education, gender inequality, hazardous location, and lack of access to infrastructure, resources and services, including knowledge and technological means.

BASIC BAS I C Vulnerability derives from: (i) exposure to risks and shocks and (ii) an inability to manage these risks and shocks (adaptive capacity) due to: inadequate assets, infrastructure and social protection mechanisms (eg. social insurance and assistance)

Socioeconomic context of vulnerability in costal zones of India: Focusing on indicators that measure both the state of development of the region as well as its capacity to progress further. BAS I C BASIC

BASIC BAS I C Variables considered in NATCOM for examining the socio-economic context of vulnerability infrastructure development (banks, schools & teachers, hospitals, roads) agriculture development (crop production and area for major crops, cropping pattern changes, fertilizer consumption and net area irrigated) Assessing the vulnerability by region (districts) in the coastal zones of India. Main focus on the macro level and vulnerability to current natural hazards.

BASIC BAS I C Large variation in extent of vulnerability over the districts covered in the study Clustering in terms of vulnerability indicators Clusters of districts with low infrastructure and demographic development (regions of maximum vulnerability) Growth in provision of infrastructure very low: outpaced by growth rate of population Results

BASIC BAS I C Most vulnerable districts have low infrastructural availability and a high population density any occurrence of extreme events is likely to be catastrophic in nature Clustering of disasters: storms, floods, and droughts Climate change and economic decline / stagnation

BASIC BAS I C Limitations of the study Development of scenarios: Apart from climate scenarios essentially what is required is a socioeconomic scenario critical for designing the adaptation options for reducing future vulnerability to climate change. A more comprehensive set of development indicators required for assessing generic adaptive capacity in finer detail

BASIC BAS I C Limitations … Identification of event specific adaptation options that suits the socioeconomic structure of a particular area Identifying ways of merging adaptation policy with local developmental policies Unable to focus on all districts in the coastal zones due to time constraints

BASIC BAS I C Limitations regarding comparability of different districts across states due to reallocation of district boundaries over time Vulnerability assessment confined to one type of extreme events: storms, severe storms, and cyclones. No stress on climate variability pattern Role of institutions not considered Limitations …

Thank you BAS I C BASIC