1 Climate Change Goals for the Metropolitan Washington Area Climate Change Steering Committee February 27, 2008 Joan Rohlfs, MWCOG/DEP

2 Regional Goals & Ways to Get There Propose Short-Term Goal (2012) Propose Short-Term Goal (2012) Low Hanging Fruit Low Hanging Fruit Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below 2005 Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below 2005 Actions to Reach Goal Actions to Reach Goal Adoption of Long Term Goals (2050) Adoption of Long Term Goals (2050) Policies to Reach Goal Policies to Reach Goal

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4 Regional Short Term Goal: 2012

5 Long Term and Short Term Goals Long Term Goals Needed to Stabilize Climate Long Term Goals Needed to Stabilize Climate Spur investment in new technology Spur investment in new technology Incentive for technological innovation Incentive for technological innovation Short Term Goals to Insure Immediate Progress Short Term Goals to Insure Immediate Progress Analyze strategies using existing technology Analyze strategies using existing technology Nearer term year is easier to comprehend, anticipate Nearer term year is easier to comprehend, anticipate

6 Local Government Short Term Goals Cool Counties agreement : Stop emissions growth in 2010 Cool Counties agreement : Stop emissions growth in 2010 Mayors’ Agreement: Reduce 7% below 1990 by 2012 Mayors’ Agreement: Reduce 7% below 1990 by 2012

7 Proposed Short Term Goal: 2012 Proposed goal: Reduce 7% by 2012 Proposed goal: Reduce 7% by Emissions expected to increase by 7% Emissions expected to increase by 7% Achievement of 7% reduction goal by 2012 would return regional emissions to 2005 levels Achievement of 7% reduction goal by 2012 would return regional emissions to 2005 levels

8 Low Hanging Fruit

9 Individual Actions Individuals contribute an estimated 7 tons CO2e per year Individuals contribute an estimated 7 tons CO2e per year Residential energy use (37%) Residential energy use (37%) Appliance use, AC and heating Appliance use, AC and heating Transportation (63%) Transportation (63%) Personal car use, mass transit, air travel Personal car use, mass transit, air travel Source: M. Vandenbergh, “Carbon Neutral Individual,” 2007

10 Total use per household Metric tons CO2 % Heating1.5824% Electricity % Transp/Auto/Air4.1363% TOTAL % Individual Contribution to GHG Emissions

11 Individual GHG Emissions  Individuals contribute about 1/3 of CO2 emissions in the U.S.  Individuals can play an important role in achieving short and long term targets  Some behaviors can be modified to generate large emission reductions (“low hanging fruit”)

12 Transportation Buy more efficient car Buy more efficient car Carpool w/ 2 others Carpool w/ 2 others Cut shopping trips in ½ Cut shopping trips in ½ Alter driving habits Alter driving habits Get frequent tune-ups Get frequent tune-ups Maintain tire pressure Maintain tire pressure Subtotal: Subtotal: 20% 4% 2% 1% 31% Reduction

13 Household Energy Reduction Weatherize house Weatherize house Install efficient HVAC Install efficient HVAC Reduce inside temp to 68 o Reduce inside temp to 68 o Install efficient water heater, reduce by 20 o Install efficient water heater, reduce by 20 o Install efficient appliances Install efficient appliances Change bulbs to CFL Change bulbs to CFL 10% 8% 4% 3% 2.5% 1.0% SUBTOTAL: 28.5% Reduction

14 / Impact of 60% Reduction in Consumer Emissions by 2012

15 60% Reductions from Consumers Assumes 2012 BAU emissions Assumes 2012 BAU emissions 33 percent are consumers 33 percent are consumers Consumers can reduce by 60% Consumers can reduce by 60% BAU is 82.3 million MT BAU is 82.3 million MT Reductions would be 16.3 million MT Reductions would be 16.3 million MT Equivalent to about 20 percent from overall BAU. Equivalent to about 20 percent from overall BAU.

16 Midterm Goal: 2020 How to get there…

17 Example: Transportation Scenario for 2020 Transportation Emissions Transportation Emissions 2005 to 2020Increase 24.6% 2005 to 2020Increase 24.6% Reduction Goal:Reduce: 20% below 2005 Reduction Goal:Reduce: 20% below 2005 Reduction Measures Reduction Measures CAFÉ Standards Reduce 20.0% CAFÉ Standards Reduce 20.0% 55 mpg by 2020Reduce 5.1% 55 mpg by 2020Reduce 5.1% VMT limit (?) VMT limit (?)

18 Measures to Reduce Regional GHG RGGI RPS Biomass Fueled Power Plants Green Buildings Energy Conservation Low Carbon Fuel Low Emission Vehicles Smart Growth/Reduced VMT CAFE/CAL LEV Tree Canopy Conservation 2%3% 3% 2% 5% 1% 1% 2% 4% Apply to DC/MD/VA 10% RPS, applied to all electricity, MD 8% 40 % buildings % reduction, Assume 15%, double counts with GB Displace 0.8 to 1.6% by 2012 Above and beyond CAFÉ Between 2% and 10% 14% based on COG DTP Assumption Measure %

19 How to Get 20 % Reduction by 2020

20 Long Term Goal: 2050

21 IPCC Stabilization Scenario IPCC recommends reduction in global CO2 emissions in 2050 of % (of 2000 emissions IPCC recommends reduction in global CO2 emissions in 2050 of % (of 2000 emissions Stabilization defined as CO2-eq concentration at ppm, Stabilization defined as CO2-eq concentration at ppm, Global mean temperature increase kept at o C Global mean temperature increase kept at o C

22 Proposed Long Term Regional GHG Reduction Goal Based on science in IPCC Report and consistent with the Warner Lieberman bill’s reduction goals Based on science in IPCC Report and consistent with the Warner Lieberman bill’s reduction goals 70% below 2005 by 2050

23 Regional Greenhouse Emissions (2005) Source: MWCOG estimates.

24 Estimated Washington Region CO 2 Emissions, (Business As Usual) MWCOG Dept. of Environmental Programs, Sept. 2007

25 List of Actual and Potential Government Programs to Reduce GHG Emissions Federal Measures Federal Measures Energy Bill of 2007 (CAFÉ standards, EEE) Energy Bill of 2007 (CAFÉ standards, EEE) Energy Efficient appliance standards Energy Efficient appliance standards Establish price and trading for carbon emissions Establish price and trading for carbon emissions Limit CO2 emissions from power plants, motor vehicles Limit CO2 emissions from power plants, motor vehicles Invest in Renewable energy technology (solar, wind, hydro) Invest in Renewable energy technology (solar, wind, hydro) Support nuclear energy research Support nuclear energy research State Measures: State Measures: CAL LEV limits on mobile CO2 emissions CAL LEV limits on mobile CO2 emissions RGGI RGGI Renewable Porfolio Standards (RE as % of Energy Efficiency goals) Renewable Porfolio Standards (RE as % of Energy Efficiency goals) Require GHG emissions analysis as part of Environmental Impact analyses Require GHG emissions analysis as part of Environmental Impact analyses Local Local Purchase of alternative/renewable energy Purchase of alternative/renewable energy Increase tree canopy Increase tree canopy LED traffic lights LED traffic lights Incentives to build to LEED standards (green buildings) Incentives to build to LEED standards (green buildings) Education and Outreach Education and Outreach Federal State Local

26 Recommendations Adopt Regional Climate Change Goals: Adopt Regional Climate Change Goals: 2012Reduce GHG emissions by 7% 2012Reduce GHG emissions by 7% 2020Reduce GHG emissions by 20% below Reduce GHG emissions by 20% below Reduce GHG emission by 70% below Reduce GHG emission by 70% below 2005