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TPB SCENARIO STUDY Development of “What Would it Take?” Scenario Ronald F. Kirby Director of Transportation Planning Presentation to the Transportation.

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Presentation on theme: "TPB SCENARIO STUDY Development of “What Would it Take?” Scenario Ronald F. Kirby Director of Transportation Planning Presentation to the Transportation."— Presentation transcript:

1 TPB SCENARIO STUDY Development of “What Would it Take?” Scenario Ronald F. Kirby Director of Transportation Planning Presentation to the Transportation Planning Board April 16, 2008

2 2 Starting Point: The Goal COG Climate Change Steering Committee Proposed Goals: By 2012: 10% reduction in CO 2 below 2012 business as usual levels By 2020: 20% reduction in CO 2 below 2005 levels By 2050: 80% reduction in CO 2 below 2005 levels

3 3 Implementation Strategies How to Reduce Mobile Carbon Emissions: Fuel Efficiency Beyond CAFE standards (currently 35 mpg by 2020) Fuel Carbon Intensity Alternative fuels (biofuels) Vehicle technology (electric, fuel cell) Reducing Vehicle Travel Changes in land use development (TOD, infill) Changes in travel behavior (education campaigns) Changes in prices for travel

4 4 Prioritizing Strategies A cap and trade program for CO2 will provide a cost-effectiveness benchmark via a price for CO2 abatement McKinsey report ranks strategies based on cost-effectiveness Initial estimates show Commuter Connections with a cost-effectiveness of $17 per ton, which falls in the center of the McKinsey ranking Cost-effectiveness of other TDM measures should be assessed

5 5 Prioritizing Strategies, cont

6 6 In addition to cost-effectiveness, interventions can be organized by timeframe for implementation and realization of benefits Short Term Medium Term Long Term “Low-hanging fruit” that are relatively fast and cost-effective (fuel economy packages) Major changes to current land use patterns Major Transit Investments

7 7 Products “Sliders” metaphor Different combinations of interventions can be assessed for cost-effectiveness and feasibility.

8 8 Next Task Force Meeting: Wednesday June 18, 2008 Review “Strawman” Aspirations Scenario Review “Sliders” for What Would it Take? Scenario

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