PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION Dave Finkelstein — Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses & Director, CNA China Studies

POINT 1 THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES THE CHINESE ARMED FORCES ARE DISPLAYING TODAY ARE THE FRUITS OF FUNDAMENTAL DECISIONS, PLANS, AND PROGRAMS PUT INTO PLACE 18 YEARS AGO.

FORMER CCP SECRETARY GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN 1993: THE WATERSHED YEAR “MILITARY STRATEGIC GUIDELINES FOR THE NEW PERIOD” PROGRAMMATIC BLUEPRINT FOR LONG-TERM MODERNIZATION OF PLA CAPABILITIES-BASED & CONTINGENCYBASED FORMER CCP SECRETARY GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN

CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT GALVANIZING IMPACT OF DESERT STORM ENDS PLA DEBATES ABOUT TECHNOLOGY & REFORM LESSONS OF KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, CHECHNYA, CYBER ATTACKS ON ESTONIA, GEORGIA MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN 2002 & 2004

BUILD A PLA TO FIGHT THIS KIND OF WAR “LOCAL WARS UNDER MODERN INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS” LIMITED POLITICAL OBJECTIVES & GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE SHORT IN DURATION BUT DECISIVE IN OUTCOME HIGH-INTENSITY OPERATIONS TEMPO LOGISTICS-INTENSIVE C4ISR & NEAR-TOTAL BATTLE SPACE AWARENESS OPERATIONS IN ALL BATTLE SPACE DIMENSIONS NON-LINEAR OPERATIONS & VULNERABLE REAR AREAS PRE-EMINANCE OF JOINT SERVICE OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGNS

CONTINGENCY-BASED ASSESSEMENT MSD LITTORAL /MARITIME CONCERNS “MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION”

PREPARE FOR “LOCAL WAR UNDER INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS” “MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION ” & “IMPORTANT STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS” New Data from D.J. Email from Dennis 23 Oct 09 Dave and friends, the SCMP article Scot passed around is derived from the two articles I sent to Dave yesterday (below, both having the same content, one in English and the other in Chinese from PLA Daily). The sentence "Northwest China is China’s important strategic direction " "西北是我国重要战略方向"caught my eye. My question is how does the "northwest" compare to th "southeast (Taiwan/SCS)" in terms of strategic direction? We had Considered the "southeast" as the "main strategic direction" based on changes in the 90s. Now with cross-strait tensions lessening and the rise of Islamic extremism, separatism, and terrorrism in the northwest (the "three evils") are we seeing the beginning of a change in the "main strategic direction"? I assume you guys have researched the term "重要战略方向" more than I have and can compare this useage to previous references. Dennis Liang Guanglie: to boost innovative development of national defense mobilization construction http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/china-military-news/2009-08/18/content_4024262.htm Liang Guanglie, member of the Central Military Commission (CMC), state councilor and defense minister, stressed at the 5th plenary meeting of the National Defense Mobilization Committee of the Lanzhou Military Area Command (MAC) of the PLA that the surrounding environment and the conditions for national defense mobilization construction are seeing profound changes in the new century and the new period, the national defense mobilization System must hold high the great banner of the socialism with Chinese characteristics, stick to the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of the “Three Represents”, implement the scientific outlook on development in a deep-going way and constantly boost the innovative development of national defense mobilization construction. In Shaanxi Province, Liang Guanglie listened to the reports of Shaanxi Province and Yan’an City on national defense mobilization. In Gansu Province, Liang Guanglie went to militia companies to learn situations on infrastructure building. In Qinghai Province, Liang Guanglie watched video on national defense mobilization construction of five provinces (autonomous regions) in Northwest China and viewed and emulated the research-oriented exercise of Qinghai Province’s national defense mobilization system in implementing stability-maintenance action. Liang Guanglie fully affirmed The achievements obtained by the Lanzhou Theatre in national defense mobilization construction and urged the national defense mobilization departments at all levels to further enhance the awareness of unexpected development and mission and try to form strong mobilization ability commensurate with maintaining the security and stability of Northwest China. Liang Guanglie pointed out that Northwest China is China’s important strategic direction and involves heavy military struggle preparation task. It is imperative to proceed from actual situation to do a good job in Making a comprehensive arrangement for the construction of battle-meeting and emergent-handling ability, as well as for reserve force and other > mobilization fields.Liang Guanglie stressed that national defense mobilization departments At all levels should be fully aware of the long-time, complexity and hardnessfeature of the struggle with the “three evil forces”, always hold high the banner of maintaining social stability, maintaining socialist legal system, safeguarding the basic interests of the people and safeguarding unity of nationalities, steadfastly fight against the separatist and sabotage activities of the “three evil forces” and make greater contributions to the long period of peace and stability of Northwest China. Wang Guosheng, commander of the Lanzhou MAC, accompanied Liang Guanglie on the tour. Li Changcai, political commissar of the Lanzhou MAC, and relevant leaders of the five provinces (autonomous regions) in Northwest China were present at the conference. By Han Guoxian PREPARE FOR “LOCAL WAR UNDER INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS”

POINT 2 – EVEN WITHOUT TAIWAN…. …THE CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT WOULD STILL IMPEL THE PLA TO HIGH-TECH CAPABILITIES, & OTHER CONTINGENCIES WOULD SERVE AS DRIVERS THE CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT “PREPARATIONS FOR MILITARY COMBAT” WOULD DEMAND IT

WHY? MOST PRESSING CONTIGENCIES ARE MARITIME AND AEROSPACE IN NATURE IF PLA CAN BUILD A MILITARY FOR THE TAIWAN CONTINGENCY, IT CAN ALSO DEAL WITH OTHERS “BIG POWER” STATUS A MILITARY BEFITTING AN EMERGING POWER “STICK” AS WELL AS “CARROT” EXPANDING NATIONAL INTERESTS MARITIME TRADING NATION WITH GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTERESTS

POINT 3 WHAT THE LEADERS OF THE PLA ARE TRYING TO ACHIEVE IN MILITARY MODERNI- ZATION IS NOTHING SHORT OF TRANS- FORMATIVE RELATIVE TO THE PLA’S PAST.

PARADIGM SHIFTS FOR PLA STRATEGICALLY SEEKING DEFENSIVE DEPTH EAST OFF THE LITORRAL ORGANIZATIONALLY GIVING INCREASING EMPHASIS TO NAVY, AIR FORCE, & TECHNICAL BRANCHES OPERATIONALLY AND DOCTRINALLY TRAINING FOR JOINT, HIGH OPS TEMPO CAMPAIGNS CONCEPTUALLY LEARNING TO UTILIZE HIGH-TECH ASSETS IN DYNAMIC OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT SU-27 AIRCRAFT PURCHASED FROM RUSSIA

“THREE PILLARS OF REFORM” HARDWARE & TECHNOLOGIES SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS OPERATIONAL-LEVEL DOCTRINE

SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS COMMISSIONING PROFESSIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT NCO CORPS RECRUITMENT DOWNSIZING UNIT RESTRUCTURING NEW C2 RELATIONSHIPS EQUIPMENT R & D SYSTEM LOGISTICS FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT

DOCTRINE FOR A NEW TYPE OF CAMPAIGN FROM LONG CAMPAIGNS OF ATTRITION BASED ON CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS) AGAINST ENEMY’S WEAKEST SECTOR & ASSETS… ….TO …. SHORT “CAMPAIGNS OF PARALYSIS” TO LEVEL THE TECHNOLOGICAL PLAYING FIELD BY CONCENTRATING PLA’S BEST CAPABILITIES AGAINST ENEMY’S MOST IMPORTANT ASSETS.

PARADIGM SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL DOCTRINE FROM TO COMBINED ARMS JOINT OPERATIONS CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS) CONCENTRATION OF CAPABILITIES (WPNS, UNITS) ENEMY’S WEAK POINTS ENEMY’S STRENGTHS EMPHASIS ON DEFENSE PRIMACY OF OFFENSE GROUND FORCE-CENTRIC NAVAL AND AEROSPACE ABSORBING BLOWS CONVENTIONAL BATTLE SPACES OPERATIONAL PRE-EMPTION NEW BATTLE SPACES (SPACE, CYBER SPACE, EM SPECTRUM)

POINT 4 THE PLA IS NOT YET BUILDING A FORCE FOR SUSTAINED GLOBAL FORCE PROJECTION.

2012 — CHINA COMMISSIONS FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER HOWEVER…. IT IS BUILDING A MILITARY FOR REGIONAL CONVENTIONAL FORCE PROJECTION & DEFENSE IN DEPTH IN THE MARITIME-AEROSPACE DOMAIN. 2012 — CHINA COMMISSIONS FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER

POINT 5 THAT SAID, THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.

STRATEGIC REACH NUCLEAR FORCES CYBER WARFARE OPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACE LIQUID FUELED TO SOLID FUELED SILO-BASED TO ROAD MOBILE, and SUBMARINES QUESTIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DOCTRINE PERSIST CYBER WARFARE PRC AS EMERGING WORLD-CLASS CENTER OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACE INCREASING FOOT PRINT IN OUTER SPACE DEMONSTRATED INTEREST IN COUNTER SPACE

POINT 6 THE PLA IS AT THE INCIPIENT STAGES OF BECOMING AN EXPEDITIONARY FORCE

24 DEC 2004: “NEW HISTORIC MISSIONS” “THE PLA IS TRANSFORMING FROM A MILITARY TRADITIONALLY FOCUSED ON THE DEFENSE OF SOVEREIGNTY TO A MILITARY PREPARED TO DEFEND CHINESE INTERESTS.” HU JINTAO BECOMES CMC CHAIRMAN IN 2004

INCIPIENT EXPEDITIONARY OPERATIONS ANTI-PIRACY OFF HORN OF AFRICA HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE & DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONS NEW HOSPITAL SHIP UN PEACEKEEPING & OBSERVER MISSIONS COMBINED EXERCISES WITH FOREIGN NATIONS TURKEY OCTOBER 2010 “QUASI-NEO” IN LIBYA 2011 FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER CV 16 LIAONING

POINT 7 – THE PLA REMAINS A “PARTY ARMY”

POINT 8 WHILE THE PLA IS MAKING IMPRESSIVE PROGRESS, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN OR INEVITABLE THAT THE PLA WILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ALL OF ITS OBJECTIVES.

INHIBITORS PLA A VERY LARGE ORGANIZATION EDUCATION LEVELS CONSCRIPTS VERSUS PROFESSIONALS COMPETITION FOR “BEST & BRIGHTEST” “ONLY SON SOLDIERS” BUREAUCRATIC INERTIA NO RECENT COMBAT EXPERIENCE

A GLOBAL ACTOR OF CONSEQUENCE FOR MANY U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS THE “CHINA FACTOR” A GLOBAL ACTOR OF CONSEQUENCE FOR MANY U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS

Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou Chairman Hu Jintao Vice Chairman Members Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou Chen Bingde GSD Liang Guanglie MND Li Jinai GPD Liao Xilong GLD Chang Wanquan GAD Jing Zhiyuan 2nd Arty Wu Shengli Navy Xu Qiliang PLAAF

Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou ? Chairman Hu Jintao Vice Chairman X X Members Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou X X X X X Chen Bingde GSD Liang Guanglie MND Li Jinai GPD Liao Xilong GLD Chang Wanquan GAD Jing Zhiyuan 2nd Arty Wu Shengli Navy Xu Qiliang PLAAF

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

NORTH KOREA

IRAN

AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN

CLIMATE CHANGE & GLOBAL WARMING

GLOBAL COMMONS OUTER SPACE CYBER SPACE MARITIME

USNS IMPECCABLE INCIDENT, MARCH 2009 SOUTH CHINA SEA USNS IMPECCABLE INCIDENT, MARCH 2009

“ALL UNDER HEAVEN” IS NOT WELL DOMESTIC CHALLENGES — “ALL UNDER HEAVEN” IS NOT WELL

“RISING CHINA”

“CHALLENGED CHINA”

DAUNTING DOMESTIC ISSUES RICH-POOR GAP WIDENING UNEVEN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PEASANTS ARE “LOSERS” BREAK DOWN IN SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICAL SYSTEM INADEQUATE GENDER IMBALANCE “GRAYING” POPULATION ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION RAMPANT CORRUPTION BY OFFICIALS IRRATIONAL TAX BASE HEALTH CRISES (SARS, AVIAN VIRUS, AIDS/HIV) POOR POWER GRID; NET OIL IMPORTER NET GRAIN IMPORTER INCREASINGLY “EMPOWERED” MIDDLE CLASS & ELITE IRRATIONAL BANKING & FINANCIAL SYSTEM

POPULAR UNREST A SERIOUS CONCERN IN 2006 THE CHINESE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY REPORTED 87,000 CASES OF PUBLIC ORDER DISTURBANCES. IN 2005 THERE WERE 84,000 INCIDENTS OF UNREST IN CHINA INVOLVING AS MANY AS 3.5 MILLION PEOPLE MOSTLY DISPLACED PEASANTS AND URBAN POOR LOSING JOBS OR PENSIONS IN STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES

XINJIANG — JULY 2009

CCP IS WORRIED FEARFUL OF “THE MASSES” WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE PARTY KNOWS IT MUST CHANGE STYLE OF GOVERNANCE BUT HOW? TO WHAT? HOW FAST? LESSONS OF CPSU, EASTERN EUROPE, PRI, LDP, DLP, KMT WEIGH HEAVY BEING STUDIED TODAY AT CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL

FOR THE PRC — SO WHAT? BEIJING’S MOST PRESSING AGENDA IS THE DOMESTIC AGENDA (!) FUTURE OF THE PARTY HINGES UPON ITS ABILITY TO— CONTINUE TO “DELIVER” ECONOMIC GROWTH SPREAD THE WEALTH TO CURRENT “LOSERS” ENHANCE GOVERNANCE (CORRUPTION, LEGAL REFORM, ETC) MAINTAIN INTERNAL STABILITY REQUIRES THAT CHINA REMAIN “ENGAGED” IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC & POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HAVE “A SEAT AT THE TABLE” IN THIS REGARD, THE TAIWAN ISSUE CUTS BOTH WAYS — ASSUAGING THE NATIONALISM OF “THE MASSES” WHILE UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS TO ECONOMY RESULTING FROM WAR

FOR THE U.S. — SO WHAT? U.S. HAS VITAL & MAJOR INTERESTS AT STAKE IN BOTH “RISING CHINA” & “CHALLENGED CHINA” STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE CHINA IS HEADED CANNOT DEAL WITH CHINA LIKE THE USSR DURING THE COLD WAR THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO EMPLOY ALL ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER IN DEALING WITH CHINA

QUESTIONS?

2008: PRC BECAME U.S.’S LARGEST CREDITOR OVERTAKES JAPAN TO BECOME LARGEST HOLDER OF U.S. DEBT PRC IS U.S.’S 2ND LARGEST TRADE PARTNER LARGEST SOURCE OF IMPORTS TO U.S. 3RD LARGEST EXPORT MARKET FOR U.S. U.S. IS LARGEST PRC TRADE PARTNER U.S. IS LARGEST EXPORT MARKET OF PRC

“PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN MAINTAINING WORLD PEACE AND PROMOTING COMMON DEVELOPMENT” Text FIRST TIME THE PLA HAS BEEN GIVEN A “MISSION” SEEMINGLY NOT CONFINED TO CHINA PROPER PEACETIME ORIENTED SEEMINGLY BEYOND CHINA’S BVOERDERS

As China’s Global Footprint Expands… …China’s global security interests will also expand. The PLA will likely be called upon more and more for regional security advice.

III. Institutional Sources of PLA Influence

THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS THAT SAID… THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.