1. PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION Dave Finkelstein Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses & Director, CNA China Studies

2. THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES THE CHINESE ARMED FORCES ARE DISPLAYING TODAY ARE THE FRUITS OF FUNDAMENTAL DECISIONS, PLANS, AND PROGRAMS PUT INTO PLACE 18 YEARS AGO. POINT 1

3. 1993: THE WATERSHED YEAR PROGRAMMATIC BLUEPRINT FOR LONG-TERM MODERNIZATION OF PLA CAPABILITIES-BASED & CONTINGENCY- BASED MILITARY STRATEGIC GUIDELINES FOR THE NEW PERIOD FORMER CCP SECRETARY GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN

4. CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT GALVANIZING IMPACT OF DESERT STORM ENDS PLA DEBATES ABOUT TECHNOLOGY & REFORM ADJUSTMENTS FOR KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, CHECHNYA, CYBER ATTACKS ON ESTONIA, GEORGIA

5. LOCAL WARS UNDER MODERN INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS LIMITED POLITICAL OBJECTIVES & GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE SHORT IN DURATION BUT DECISIVE IN OUTCOME HIGH-INTENSITY OPERATIONS TEMPO LOGISTICS-INTENSIVE C4ISR & NEAR-TOTAL BATTLE SPACE AWARENESS OPERATIONS IN ALL BATTLE SPACE DIMENSIONS NON-LINEAR OPERATIONS & VULNERABLE REAR AREAS PRE-EMINANCE OF JOINT SERVICE OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGNS BUILD A PLA TO FIGHT THIS KIND OF WAR

6. CONTINGENCY-BASED ASSESSEMENT LITTORAL /MARITIME CONCERNS MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION MSD

7. MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION & IMPORTANT STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS PREPARE FOR LOCAL WAR UNDER INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS

8. POINT 2 – EVEN WITHOUT TAIWAN…. …THE CAPABILITIES- BASED ASSESSMENT WOULD STILL IMPEL THE PLA TO HIGH-TECH CAPABILITIES, & OTHER CONTINGENCIES WOULD SERVE AS DRIVERS

9. MOST CONTIGENCIES ARE MARITIME AND AEROSPACE IN NATURE –IF PLA CAN BUILD A MILITARY FOR THE TAIWAN CONTINGENCY, IT CAN ALSO DEAL WITH OTHERS BIG POWER STATUS –A MILITARY BEFITTING AN EMERGING POWER –STICK AS WELL AS CARROT EXPANDING NATIONAL INTERESTS –MARITIME TRADING NATION WITH GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTERESTS WHY?

10. WHAT THE LEADERS OF THE PLA ARE TRYING TO ACHIEVE IN MILITARY MODERNI- ZATION IS NOTHING SHORT OF TRANS- FORMATIVE RELATIVE TO THE PLAS PAST. POINT 3

11. PARADIGM SHIFTS FOR PLA STRATEGICALLY SEEKING DEFENSIVE DEPTH EAST OFF THE LITORRAL ORGANIZATIONALLY GIVING INCREASING EMPHASIS TO NAVY, AIR FORCE, & TECHNICAL BRANCHES OPERATIONALLY AND DOCTRINALLY TRAINING FOR JOINT, HIGH OPS TEMPO CAMPAIGNS CONCEPTUALLY LEARNING TO UTILIZE HIGH-TECH ASSETS IN DYNAMIC OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT SU-27 AIRCRAFT PURCHASED FROM RUSSIA

12. THREE PILLARS OF REFORM 1.HARDWARE & TECHNOLOGIES 2.SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS 3.OPERATIONAL- LEVEL DOCTRINE

13. SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS COMMISSIONING PROFESSIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT NCO CORPS RECRUITMENT DOWNSIZING UNIT RESTRUCTURING NEW C2 RELATIONSHIPS EQUIPMENT R & D SYSTEM LOGISTICS FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT

14. DOCTRINE FOR A NEW TYPE OF CAMPAIGN FROM LONG CAMPAIGNS OF ATTRITION BASED ON CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS) AGAINST ENEMYS WEAKEST SECTOR & ASSETS… ….TO …. SHORT CAMPAIGNS OF PARALYSIS TO LEVEL THE TECHNOLOGICAL PLAYING FIELD BY CONCENTRATING PLAS BEST CAPABILITIES AGAINST ENEMYS MOST IMPORTANT ASSETS.

15. COMBINED ARMSJOINT OPERATIONS CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS) CONCENTRATION OF CAPABILITIES (WPNS, UNITS) ENEMYS WEAK POINTSENEMYS STRENGTHS EMPHASIS ON DEFENSEPRIMACY OF OFFENSE GROUND FORCE-CENTRICNAVAL AND AEROSPACE ABSORBING BLOWS CONVENTIONAL BATTLE SPACES OPERATIONAL PRE-EMPTION NEW BATTLE SPACES (SPACE, CYBER SPACE, EM SPECTRUM) PARADIGM SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL DOCTRINE FROM TO

16. THE PLA IS NOT (YET) BUILDING A MILITARY FOR SUSTAINED GLOBAL CONVENTIONAL FORCE PROJECTION. IT IS BUILDING A PLA FOR REGIONAL CONVENTIONAL FORCE PROJECTION & DEFENSE IN THE REGION WITH EXTENDED DEPTH. POINT 4

17. ALTHOUGH THE PLA IS NOT A GLOBAL FORCE, THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS OF CAPACITY THAT DO HAVE GLOBAL REACH. POINT 5

18. NUCLEAR FORCES –LIQUID FUELED TO SOLID FUELED –SILO-BASED TO ROAD MOBILE, and SUBMARINES –QUESTIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DOCTRINE PERSIST CYBER WARFARE –PRC AS EMERGING WORLD-CLASS CENTER OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACE –INCREASING FOOT PRINT IN OUTER SPACE –DEMONSTRATED INTEREST IN COUNTER SPACE STRATEGIC REACH

19. THE PLA IS AT THE INCIPIENT STAGES OF BECOMING AN EXPEDITIONARY FORCE POINT 6

20. 24 DEC 2004: NEW HISTORIC MISSIONS THE PLA IS TRANSFORMING FROM A MILITARY TRADITIONALLY FOCUSED ON THE DEFENSE OF SOVEREIGNTY TO A MILITARY PREPARED TO DEFEND CHINESE INTERESTS. HU JINTAO BECOMES CMC CHAIRMAN IN 2004

21. ANTI-PIRACY OFF HORN OF AFRICA HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE & DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONS UN PEACEKEEPING & OBSERVER MISSIONS COMBINED EXERCISES WITH RUSSIA & OTHERS IN SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION –Turkey October 2010! INCIPIENT EXPEDITIONARY OPERATIONS

22. POINT 7 – THE PLA REMAINS A PARTY ARMY

23. WHILE THE PLA IS MAKING IMPRESSIVE PROGRESS, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN OR INEVITABLE THAT THE PLA WILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ALL OF ITS OBJECTIVES. POINT 8

24. INHIBITORS PLA A VERY LARGE ORGANIZATION EDUCATION LEVELS CONSCRIPTS VERSUS PROFESSIONALS COMPETITION FOR BEST & BRIGHTEST ONLY SON SOLDIERS BUREAUCRATIC INERTIA NO RECENT COMBAT EXPERIENCE

25. THE CHINA FACTOR A GLOBAL ACTOR OF CONSEQUENCE FOR MANY U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS

26. GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

27. NORTH KOREA

28. IRAN

29. AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN

30. SOUTH CHINA SEA USNS IMPECCABLE INCIDENT, MARCH 2009

31. CLIMATE CHANGE & GLOBAL WARMING

32. DOMESTIC CHALLENGES ALL UNDER HEAVEN IS NOT WELL

33. RISING CHINA

34. CHALLENGED CHINA

35. DAUNTING DOMESTIC ISSUES RICH-POOR GAP WIDENING UNEVEN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PEASANTS ARE LOSERS BREAK DOWN IN SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICAL SYSTEM INADEQUATE GENDER IMBALANCE GRAYING POPULATION ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION RAMPANT CORRUPTION BY OFFICIALS IRRATIONAL TAX BASE HEALTH CRISES (SARS, AVIAN VIRUS, AIDS/HIV) POOR POWER GRID; NET OIL IMPORTER NET GRAIN IMPORTER INCREASINGLY EMPOWERED MIDDLE CLASS & ELITE IRRATIONAL BANKING & FINANCIAL SYSTEM

36. POPULAR UNREST A SERIOUS CONCERN IN 2006 THE CHINESE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY REPORTED 87,000 CASES OF PUBLIC ORDER DISTURBANCES. IN 2005 THERE WERE 84,000 INCIDENTS OF UNREST IN CHINA INVOLVING AS MANY AS 3.5 MILLION PEOPLE MOSTLY DISPLACED PEASANTS AND URBAN POOR LOSING JOBS OR PENSIONS IN STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES

37. XINJIANG JULY 2009

38. CCP IS WORRIED FEARFUL OF THE MASSES WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE PARTY KNOWS IT MUST CHANGE STYLE OF GOVERNANCE –BUT HOW? –TO WHAT? –HOW FAST? LESSONS OF CPSU, EASTERN EUROPE, PRI, LDP, DLP, KMT WEIGH HEAVY –BEING STUDIED TODAY AT CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL

39. FOR THE PRC SO WHAT ? BEIJINGS MOST PRESSING AGENDA IS THE DOMESTIC AGENDA (!) FUTURE OF THE PARTY HINGES UPON ITS ABILITY TO –CONTINUE TO DELIVER ECONOMIC GROWTH –SPREAD THE WEALTH TO CURRENT LOSERS –ENHANCE GOVERNANCE (CORRUPTION, LEGAL REFORM, ETC) –MAINTAIN INTERNAL STABILITY REQUIRES THAT CHINA REMAIN ENGAGED IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC & POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HAVE A SEAT AT THE TABLE IN THIS REGARD, THE TAIWAN ISSUE CUTS BOTH WAYS –ASSUAGING THE NATIONALISM OF THE MASSES WHILE UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS TO ECONOMY RESULTING FROM WAR

40. FOR THE U.S. SO WHAT? U.S. HAS VITAL & MAJOR INTERESTS AT STAKE IN BOTH RISING CHINA & CHALLENGED CHINA STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE CHINA IS HEADED CANNOT DEAL WITH CHINA LIKE THE USSR DURING THE COLD WAR THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO EMPLOY ALL ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER IN DEALING WITH CHINA

41. QUESTIONS?