1 Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks Ontario East Municipal Conference September 10, 2014 Kingston Ray D. Bollman Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan

The demographic trends of rural Ontario Conclusions Rural development is getting harder because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 Regarding employment trends Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 In Eastern Ontario, employment in: the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September,

Rural Development is getting harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees Components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths) –Voting with your feet –Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or –International immigration 3 Generally, migration is the largest component of population change across non-metro Ontario

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Rural Development is getting harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees This implies labour market growth only from: Net in-migration from elsewhere in Canada; or International immigration

The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees First, trends in total population Then, components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths) –Voting with your feet –Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or –International immigration

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The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees First, trends in total population Then, components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees First, trends in total population Then, components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths) –Voting with your feet –Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or

The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees First, trends in total population Then, components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths) –Voting with your feet –Prince Edward Census Division: Largest % decline in total population in 2013 Largest % decline due to net migration in 2013 Here we look at net migration of youth for the three census divisions with the largest % decline in population in 2013: Prince Edward -0.9%, Hastings -0.2%, Renfrew -0.1%

t=1 Population 15 to 19 in 1996 Population 15 to 19 in 1997 Population 15 to 19 in 1998

t=5 Population 20 to 24 in 2001 Population 20 to 24 in 2004 GAP = net decline from 2001 to 2006

The demographic trends of rural Ontario Conclusions Rural development is getting harder because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 Regarding employment trends Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 In Eastern Ontario, employment in: the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September,

Economic Regions 3510 Ottawa (and area) Economic Region: includes Census Divisions: 01 Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry United Counties, 02 Prescott and Russell United Counties, 06 Ottawa Division 07 Leeds and Grenville United Counties,and 09 Lanark County Kingston – Pembroke Economic Region: Includes Census Divisions: 10 Frontenac Management board, 11 Lennox and Addington County, 12 Hastings County, 13 Prince Edward Division, and 47 Renfrew County.

June, 2012

September, 2005

The demographic trends of rural Ontario Conclusions Rural development is getting harder because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 Regarding employment trends Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 In Eastern Ontario, employment in: the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September,

77 Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks Ontario East Municipal Conference September 10, 2014 Kingston Ray D. Bollman Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan Questions / Discussion

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