Demographic Transition Critique ► This is a 1940s theory ► It is an excellent starting point but subject to some real problems: Death rates start to decrease before public health improvements do much good or medical disease control has any effect Birth rates vary widely, actually increase as death rates fall in Britain Every region has a different transition! Little reason to believe that developing countries will follow the model
A New Demographic Transition? ► Life expectancy continues to rise ► Birth rates continue to fall below replacement level in many European countries ► Migration is more important determinant of regional population growth and distribution than is natural increase
Local population growth: Calgary-EdmontonCorridor
Source: Statistics Canada, Infomat, Aug 24, 2004
Immigrant Trends ► Settle at intended destination and do not migrate interprovincially. ► Second generation immigrants tend to remain in large metropolitan centres. ► On average, higher levels of educational attainment than born Canadians. ► Yet, a far higher proportion of recent immigrants were employed in jobs with lower skill requirements than the Canadian- born.