1 The EUROBRISA Project David Stephenson University of Exeter 1 st EUROBRISA workshop, Paraty, Brazil March 2008

2 Aims of EUROBRISA 1.Strengthen collaboration and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American climate scientists; 2.Produce improved seasonal climate forecasts for South America using recent scientific advances in both coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling and statistical calibration and combination of multi-model ensemble forecasts; 3.Develop forecast products for non-profitable governmental use in South America (e.g. reservoir management, hydropower production, and agriculture). A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO DO SOMETHING REALLY IMPRESSIVE!

3 Institutions and people University of Exeter (UE), U.K. David Stephenson, Rachel Lowe … + Trevor Bailey Centre for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (CPTEC), Brazil Caio Coelho, Maria Assuncao Dias, Simone Costa European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK. Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Magdalena Balmaseda U.K. Met Office (UKMO), Exeter, U.K. Richard Graham, Alberto Arribas Météo-France (MF), Toulouse, France Michel Deque, Jean-Philippe Piedelievre Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), Brazil Alexandre Guetter Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), Brazil Antonio Moura, Lauro Fortes and Yumiko Marina T. da Anunciação University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brazil Tercio Ambrizzi

4 Partner committments University of Exeter, School of Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics (UK): Overall coordination of the network assisted by the Network Facilitator Expert advice in the statistical calibration, combination, and verification of forecasts Centre for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (CPTEC, Brazil): Develop and implement a procedure for producing best quality seasonal climate forecasts Act as the S. American point of contact for the Network. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): Provide CPTEC with real-time seasonal forecast data from the European coupled model forecasting systems Met Office (U.K. Met Office): Provide ECMWF with real-time seasonal forecast data from the U.K. Met Office forecasting system; Advise on the development of forecast products for applications in S. American hydropower production; Collaborate with the U. of Exeter on how best to improve the seasonal forecasting system. Météo-France: Provide ECMWF with real-time seasonal forecast data from the Météo-France coupled model forecasting system Federal University of Paraná (UFPR - Brazil): Develop a seasonal stream flow forecasting system for use in hydro-electric power production forecasting Perform diagnostic studies of hydrologic extreme events Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET): Research on the use and value of the combined and calibrated forecasts in agricultural activities University of São Paulo, Department of Atmospheric Science (USP, Brazil): Theoretical and observational studies of seasonal predictability Production of regional seasonal predictions for southeast Brazil

5 Objectives of this workshop Give EUROBRISA partners chance to meet each other and share ideas; Report on research achievements; Plan what to do next: –Identify research required for improving South American seasonal forecasts; –Identify research required for user applications (e.g. agriculture, hydropower and health); –Any other good ideas??!

6 EUROBRISA achievements so far 1.Strengthen collaboration between European and S. American climate scientists 1 st EUROBRISA workshop (Mar 2008) EUROBRISA web site launched (Oct 2007) www6.cptec.inpe.br/eurobrisa Network facilitator appointed in Exeter (Oct 2007) 2. Produce improved seasonal climate forecasts for South America Creation of a great case study event – La Nina 2008! New visualisation approaches for seasonal forecasts Project summary published in CLIVAR Exchanges (Oct 2007) Real time forecasts and verification products made available online (Oct 2007) Real time forecasting system set up in Brazil (Jul-Oct 2007) 3. Develop forecast products for non-profitable governmental use in South America Entrainment of new application areas (e.g. health)

7 Research outputs Publications Talks Web sites Examples of improved decision-making

8 Day 1: Monday 17 March 2008 Session 1: Introduction 09:00 – 09:30 David Stephenson: "Introduction to the EUROBRISA workshop" 09:30 – 10:00 Caio Coelho: "The EUROBRISA operational system" 10:00 – 10:30 Rachel Lowe: "Visualisation of seasonal forecasts“ COFFEE BREAK Session 2: Reports from EUROBRISA partners 11:00 – 11:30 Francisco Doblas-Reyes: "Model uncertainty in climate forecasting from seasons to decades: the ENSEMBLES project" 11:30 – 12:00 Magdalena Balmaseda: "ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 3" FREE TIME 18:00 – 18:30 Alberto Arribas: "Seasonal Forecasting at the Met Office" 18:30 – 19:00 Tercio Ambrizzi: "How well are SH teleconnection patterns predicted by seasonal climate models?" 19:00 – 19:30 Alexandre Guetter: "Hydropower Generation Programming with Application of the Stochastic Reservoir Theory and Streamflow Prediction Ensemble" 19:30 – 20:00 Marina T. da Anunciação: "Use of the Eurobrisa data in agricultural applications: forecasting the Evapotranspiration and the Index of Severity of the Soybean Rust Disease"

9 Day 1: Monday 17 March 2008 Session 1: Introduction 09:00 – 09:30 David Stephenson: "Introduction to the EUROBRISA workshop" 09:30 – 10:00 Caio Coelho: "The EUROBRISA operational system" 10:00 – 10:30 Rachel Lowe: "Visualisation of seasonal forecasts“ COFFEE BREAK Session 2: Reports from EUROBRISA partners 11:00 – 11:30 Francisco Doblas-Reyes: "Model uncertainty in climate forecasting from seasons to decades: the ENSEMBLES project" 11:30 – 12:00 Magdalena Balmaseda: "ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 3" FREE TIME 14:00 – 14:30 Alberto Arribas: "Seasonal Forecasting at the Met Office" 14:30 – 15:00 Tercio Ambrizzi: "How well are SH teleconnection patterns predicted by seasonal climate models?" 15:00 – 15:30 Alexandre Guetter: "Hydropower Generation Programming with Application of the Stochastic Reservoir Theory and Streamflow Prediction Ensemble" 15:30 – 16:00 Marina T. da Anunciação: "Use of the Eurobrisa data in agricultural applications: forecasting the Evapotranspiration and the Index of Severity of the Soybean Rust Disease"

10 Days 2 and 3 Tuesday 18 March Session 3: Talks from guests 09:00 – 09:30 Simone Costa: "Linking seasonal forecasts to a crop yield model" 09:30 – 10:30 Miguel Monteiro and Trevor Bailey: "Climate, environmental change and public health in Brazil: Scenarios, opportunities and uncertainties for improved seasonal forecasting" COFFEE BREAK Session 4: Discussion about health applications 11:00 – 12:00 FREE TIME Session 4: Discussion about agriculture and hydropower applications 18:00 – 20:00 Wednesday 19 March Session 5: Discussion about the EUROBRISA forecasting system 09:00 – 10:30 COFFEE BREAK Session 6: Future plans and end of workshop 11:00 – 12:00

11 Now let the show begin …