Presentation on theme: "1 Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research Beth Ebert (BOM, Australia) co-chair Laurie Wilson (CMC, Canada) co-chair Barb Brown (NCAR, USA)"— Presentation transcript:
1 Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research Beth Ebert (BOM, Australia) co-chair Laurie Wilson (CMC, Canada) co-chair Barb Brown (NCAR, USA) Barbara Casati (Ouranos, Canada) Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil) Anna Ghelli (ECMWF, UK) Martin Göber (DWD, Germany) Simon Mason (IRI, USA) Marion Mittermaier (Met Office, UK) Pertti Nurmi (FMI, Finland) Joel Stein (Météo-France) Yuejian Zhu (NCEP, USA)
2 Aims Verification component of WWRP, in collaboration with WGNE, WCRP, CBS Develop and promote new verification methods Training on verification methodologies Ensure forecast verification is relevant to users Encourage sharing of observational data Promote importance of verification as a vital part of experiments Promote collaboration among verification scientists, model developers and forecast providers Collaborations WWRP working groups THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Subseasonal prediction Polar prediction CBS Severe Wx FDPs Coordination Group on Forecast Verification SRNWP COST 731 ECMWF TAC subgroup on verification measures
3 FDPs and RDPs MAP D-PHASE Severe Weather FDP Typhoon Landfall FDP Sydney 2000 FDP Beijing 2008 FDP/RDP SNOW-V10 RDP Sochi 2014 a) International comparison of many new spatial verification methods b) Methods applied by researchers to same datasets (precipitation; perturbed cases; idealized cases) c) Subjective forecast evaluations d) Workshops: 2007, 2008, 2009 e) Weather and Forecasting special collection Spatial Verification Method Intercomparison Project
4 Outreach Verification workshops and tutorials –On-site, travelling EUMETCAL training modules Verification web page Sharing of tools http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/ Melbourne, December 2011 3-day tutorial + 3-day scientific workshop Capacity building for FDPs/RDPs, SWFDP, etc.
5 New focus areas for JWGFVR research Spatial scale Forecast lead time "Seamless verification" - consistent across space/time scales NWP climate change local point regional global minuteshoursdaysweeksmonthsyearsdecades nowcasts decadal prediction seasonal prediction sub- seasonal prediction very short range - - - - - - - - - - - - - - RCM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Spatial methods for verifying ensemble predictions Neighborhood, scale-separation, feature-based, deformation