Drivers/Causes of LCLUC Proximate – human land use activities at local level (e.g. agriculture expansion) Underlying – fundamental societal processes from local to the national to global scale. o Include demographic, macro-economic, technological, policy, and cultural factors.

Causes of LCLUC driven by simplifications > which in turn inform policy decisions – Authors propose alternative pathways to change supported by case study evidence. – Based on case studies – neither poverty nor population alone is the major underlying causes of LCLUC Rather… – Economic opportunities - Mediated by institutional factors (policy, etc.) – Opportunities for new land uses created by local and national markets and policies – Global forces become the main determinants of land-use change Lambin et al. (2001) Global Environnemental Change The Causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths

Tropical deforestation – Simplification: ? – Reality: ? Rangleland Modification Agricultural Intensification Urbanization Take Home Message – – Globalization is the main process amplifying / attenuating drivers of LCLUC. Rapid LCLUC change often concomitant with entrance of nation into world economies and leads to disconnections of sources of demand from location of production.

DeFries, Asner, Foley A Glimpse Out the Window: Landscapes, Livelihoods, and the Environment Major Societal Trends? (Figure 3) What affects Land Transitions? – Ecological conditions – Demographics – Consumption patterns – Economic forces – Policy

DeFries et al. (2010): Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the 21 st century So what’s the take home message? Forest loss may be even greater with urbanization Since urban growth is projected to outpace rural growth this has huge implications for forest loss Other drivers may be biofuel and the competition for food production REDD policy needs to target the large players (industrial ag) rather than the small landowners only Total Population growth mildly significant – with a negative coefficient – a response which counters the claim that deforestation increases with population

LCLUC Impacts LULUC activities alter energy budgets when they change physical properties such as: albedo, soil moisture, roughness, humidity, and evaporation rates.

Impacts of LCLUC Direct and Indirect impacts Immediate and delayed impacts Temporary and permanent impacts Positive and negative impacts Biophysical and societal impacts

Example Impacts Biogeochemical Cycles Water Cycle Land Productivity Air Quality Biodiversity Societal Impacts Climate Impacts

Source: Hansen et al., 2005 Total # of species detected Explain the curvilinear response

Land Use Transitions –Frontier Expansion (e.g. Brazil) –Extraction of Natural Resources (e.g. Wildlife, Timber, Mining) –Subsistence Farming > development of markets –Increasing emphasis on Management of natural resources – agriculture, forestry, rangelands – extensification > intensification –Urban growth and megacities – population expansion –Suburban expansion –Agro-industrial complex –Globalization of markets – e.g. US and Amazon Beef and Soybeans, Europe and African Beef, Japan and Indonesian Hardwoods –International Development (rather than exploitation) –Sustainability – Economic and Environmental Priorities (UNCED, Agenda 21 and WSSD)

Modeling LCLUC

Data Why Model Land Use Change? Models require understanding of the processes and data What is the mismatch issue with Social and Physical data? Human – Environment closely linked, often resulting in feedbacks:

Conceptual model of a land system – from Global Land Project

LCLUC and Climate Change LCLUC major BUT POORLY RECOGNIZED driver of long-term global climate patterns

Mitigation Strategy Issues Permanence Saturation Verifiability

Pielke, Sr. (2005) Science Land Use and Climate Change Should not be a surprise: NASA reports that nearly 1/3 to 1/2 of the plant’s land surface has been transformed by human action/development ENSO analogy: Persistent Large magnitude (impact/intensity) Large spatial scale Global Impacts Thunderstorms example