Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation Quantifying the Benefits

Conceptual Starting Point Adaptation is not coping – in well adapted systems people and the environmental and other features they value are doing well Doing well as variability and extreme events increase with climate change will require effective strategies for disaster risk reduction Weather related events already account for 70% of disasters Disasters are a major factor contributing to endemic poverty in many parts of the world. Adaptation is not coping – in well adapted systems people and the environmental and other features they value are doing well Doing well as variability and extreme events increase with climate change will require effective strategies for disaster risk reduction Weather related events already account for 70% of disasters Disasters are a major factor contributing to endemic poverty in many parts of the world.

The Practical Challenge The conceptual part is easy Translating concepts to action isnt Practical Methodologies are Essential Buzzwords abound -- but what does DRR or adaptation mean?

The Risk to Resilience Project Case Studies Rawlpindi, Pakistan Rohini River, U.P. Bagmati, Nepal-Bihar Collaboration ISET ISET-Nepal IIASA KCL WII GEAG PIEDAR Case Studies Rawlpindi, Pakistan Rohini River, U.P. Bagmati, Nepal-Bihar Collaboration ISET ISET-Nepal IIASA KCL WII GEAG PIEDAR

The Methodology Shared Learning Dialogues (SLDs) to translate climate change projections into locally meaningful terms Detailed vulnerability analyses Identification of DRR options through SLDs Qualitative identification of major cost and benefit areas through transects, SLDs, secondary data, etc… Detailed survey of site characteristics, assets, etc… Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios Hydrologic modeling to identify impacts Backward and forward looking Cost-Benefit analysis Shared Learning Dialogues (SLDs) to translate climate change projections into locally meaningful terms Detailed vulnerability analyses Identification of DRR options through SLDs Qualitative identification of major cost and benefit areas through transects, SLDs, secondary data, etc… Detailed survey of site characteristics, assets, etc… Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios Hydrologic modeling to identify impacts Backward and forward looking Cost-Benefit analysis

Learning Local Experience Scientific Knowledge Shared Learning Act Monitor, document & reflect Monitor, document & reflect Monitor, document & reflect Act Adapted from Lewin 1946: Action research and minority problems Shared Learning Shared Learning Time Shared Learning Process

Sample Quantitative Results

True but overly simplistic Not all approaches are resilient under changing climatic conditions Results of detailed CBAs indicate investment in risk reduction can generate high rates of return Not all approaches benefit everyone - particularly the poor

Not all DRR is robust with different assumptions & Climate Change Differing levels of information on events required (probabilities) Sensitivity to thresholds (embankments) Potential for negative externalities Differing levels of information on events required (probabilities) Sensitivity to thresholds (embankments) Potential for negative externalities

Not all All Approaches Benefit Everyone Structural protection -- displaces impacts on those outside protective structures & can lead to behaviors that increase vulnerability Insurance -- hard to get down to the poorest Early warning -- cant always reach key groups Groundwater development -- particularly benefits middle farmers Structural protection -- displaces impacts on those outside protective structures & can lead to behaviors that increase vulnerability Insurance -- hard to get down to the poorest Early warning -- cant always reach key groups Groundwater development -- particularly benefits middle farmers Most approaches involve social tradeoffs

Transect 1: The Bairgania Bund Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River Transect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River Qualitative CBA Transects

Transect 1: The Bairgania Ring Bund +, - - ( +, - - ) ( +, ) ( + + +,- ) ( + +, - ) ( +, )

( + +,- )( ) ( ) Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River

( + +, - - ) ( ) ( +, - - ) ( + +, - ) Transect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River

Robust approaches address the systemic factors creating vulnerability respond to recurrent sources of variability have low dependence on specific climate projections address the systemic factors creating vulnerability respond to recurrent sources of variability have low dependence on specific climate projections Many such approaches are community based

Questionable DRR Approaches Warning signals that DRR may not work include strategies that involve: Dependence on specific event characteristics Long lead times High initial investments Long-term institutional dependence Large distributional consequences Warning signals that DRR may not work include strategies that involve: Dependence on specific event characteristics Long lead times High initial investments Long-term institutional dependence Large distributional consequences

Climate Risk Management Requires A mix of strategies Distributed CBDRM as well as centralized Systemic as well as targeted Financial & institutional as well as infrastructure Risk spreading as well as risk reduction Approaches that are tailored to specific contexts and sources of vulnerability Tangibility rather than generalizations A mix of strategies Distributed CBDRM as well as centralized Systemic as well as targeted Financial & institutional as well as infrastructure Risk spreading as well as risk reduction Approaches that are tailored to specific contexts and sources of vulnerability Tangibility rather than generalizations