1. Determinants of Resilience to a Climate Change Related Extreme Weather Event : A Comparative Study of Urban Communities in Metro Manila Examination Committee: Dr. Edsel Sajor (Chairperson) Dr. Ranjith Perera Dr. Bernadette Resurreccion Claudius Caezar Gabinete (109534) Urban Environmental Management School Of Environment, Resources And Development Asian Institute Of Technology May 12, 2011

2. Transference, synergy and resilience The current paradigm in climate change resilience research fail to account transference of characteristics that enables a community to shift from one phase of resilience building to another. A characteristic of community resilience at one stage enables or hinders the community to transition to the next phase of climate change and disaster resilience The potential for synergy of major actors identified in the study is not captured by static quantitative measures of indicator research praxis. Various actors have different significance in specific stages of resilience development.

3. T0T0 T1T1 T2T2 Note. Adapted from Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons, H.M Füssel, 2006, Sustainability Science.

4. Tropical Storm Ketsana Landfall on September 26, 2009, exited on September 26, 2009 Highest precipitation recorded: 454.9 mm (Quezon City) b Estimated cost of damages is PhP10.45 billion broken down into a : – Infrastructure - PhP 3.684 Billion (85.68M USD) – Agriculture PhP 6.766 Billion (157.35M USD) Casualties in NCR: 173 dead a Damaged Houses (PH): 101,278 (25,259 totally and 76,019 partially) a Affected population in NCR: – 239 barangays – 172, 287 families – 864, 668 individuals a Sources: (a) National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, 2009 (b) Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration, 2009

5. Synthesis of resilience mechanisms East Riverside ~ 30 years of experience as a community relationship with the local government is mostly informal development interventions found on the study area denominated by smaller organizations autonomous coping/survival strategies, which they have accumulated from the years of experience with living with the frequent flooding on their area Balubad Better scores on areas of education, income and access to financial services residential age in study area in Balubad is fairly young active religious organization that aid in the community’s spiritual and (household) economic welfare Dominant presence of city government as well Formal evacuation plan, compliant

6. StabilityRecovery? Evacuation plan Early warning system Initiated by government Community organization Internal roads Presence of two large religious organizations Presence of government in the rehabilitation Financial assistance East RiversideBalubad An active NGO Supportive barangay government Stability under duress even without external assistance Effective community organizations

7. Recovery results Rates not significantly different: – number of respondents between the two study areas that have recovered after one year – rates of recovery in number of months Balubad has more household respondents claiming to have better housing conditions than before Ketsana Note. Encircled figure is significantly different at p< 0.05 in the two-sided test of equality. Tests are adjusted for all pairwise comparisons within a row of each innermost subtable using the Bonferroni correction.

8. StabilityRecovery Transformation Evacuation plan Early warning system Initiated by government Community organization Internal roads Presence of two large religious organizations Presence of government in the rehabilitation East RiversideBalubad Better educational levels, financial services, income levels Faster rates of asset accumulation Better housing conditions Housing and financial assistance An active NGO Supportive barangay government Stability under duress even without external assistance Effective community organizations

9. Major Findings The current indicators, at least those that the study was able to cover, may be used at the community level, with some modifications and use of surrogate variables. Indicators are utilized at different phases of the disaster and resilience building Another possible indicator of resilience: synergy (Evans) A defined third entity in state-society continuum of synergy: non-state actors (NGOs, religious orgs), at least in the context of disaster resilience. A working methodology to test resilience of communities to possible extreme weather event A working methodology to test pervasiveness of macro-scale indicators to micro-scale studies New indicators for use on macro-scale studies A convergent conceptual framework for synergy, disaster and resilience

10. T0T0 T1T1 T2T2 Synergy and resilience State Actors Non-state Actors Community Actors

11. Policy Implications Identification of priority adaptation projects – Government and non-government support in forming effective community organizations – strengthen ability to self-organize – Importance of access to scholarships, micro-finance, and other financial services in improving ability of HH for house upgrading and upward mobility – Opportunities for public health sector to address certain common illnesses that may be exacerbated by CC Potential for embedding synergy in resilience building among state, non-state intermediaries and community organizations in national and local policy development