Tracking in funding of climate efforts in developing countries and potential for tracking with georeferencing and crowdsourcing Timmons Roberts Brown University/AidData Special thanks to Christian Peratsakis and AidData Preparatory Workshop for Third Session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Tracking of Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery Investments in International Aid April 2011, Helsinki, Finland

Assessments of Need and Pledges at Copenhagen and Cancun Now many estimates of adaptation/resilience need: UNDP, World Bank, Oxfam, IIED; vary from 10 to over 200b/year Copenhagen Accord promised New and Additional funds $30billion in Fast Start Finance scaling up to $100 billion/year by 2020 But: Public and private Loans and grants No baseline set Much variation in donor categorization, lack standards and registry

Learning from experience tracking climate adaptation funding Categorization of 115,000 projects in OECD DAC Categorization of 2,225 DFID projects portfolio on 12 climate adaptation schemes ffort to code all of PLAID 1.9.2, precursor to AidData 1.0 and experiment with naïve bayesian machine coding GFDRR/AidData categorization of 70,000 projects Crowd-sourcing pilot in Uganda with UNICEF CCAPSUniv. of Texas/MINERVA Africa vulnerability and fragile statesidentification, georeferencing, enhancement

Humble Beginnings: First efforts to categorize by climate In 2008, PLAID coders categorized a random sample of 115,000 projects from the OECD CRS on a six-point climate coding system: 1: Mitigation: Energy efficiency and reducing emissions 2: Mitigation: Renewable energy 3: Mitigation: Other 4: Adaption studies and plans 5: Adaption action 6: Natural disaster prevention

115,000 projects DAC Coded For Climate Mitigation and Adaptation

The largest natural disaster projects we encountered 2002JapanJBICTO PREVENT DESERTIFICATION TO PREVENT DESERTIFICATION 2002JapanMOFA FLOOD PROTECTION AND DRAINAGE IMPVT IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF PHNOM PENH THE PROJECT FOR FLOOD PROTECTION AND DRAINAGE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF PHNOM PENH 2001IDANATURAL DISASTER VULNERABILITY NATURAL DISASTER VULNERABILITY 2001CanadaCIDADISASTER PREPAREDNESS PROJECT DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PROJECT 2000UKDFID LIVELIH. RESTORATION, PUB. HEALTH INTERV. & COMM. BASED DISASTER PREPA ORISSA CYCLONE: LIVELIHOODS RESTORATION, PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTIONS AND COMMUNITY BASED DISASTER PREPAREDNESS 2004IDADISASTER MANAGEMENT PROJECT LC DISASTER MANAGEMENT PROJECT II 2004FranceMAE *LUTTE CONTRE LA SÉCHERESSE DANS LE SAHEL ADAPTATION DU COMITÉ PERMANENT INTER- ÉTAT *DE LUTTE CONTRE LA SÉCHERESSE DANS LE SAHEL (CILSS) *AUX NOUVEAUX ENJEUX RÉGIONAUX (ACER) 2004IBRDDISASTER MANAGEMENT PROJECT LC DISASTER MANAGEMENT PROJECT II 2004IDBDISASTER PREVENTION PROGRAM ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL DISASTERS 2000 German yGTZ RURAL DEVELOPMENT: FIGHT AGAINST DESERTIFICATION IN DRAA-TAL DESERTIFIKATIONSBEKAEMPFUNG IM DRAA- TAL (ALT: )

A case study: DFID Gordon Brown pledge of climate adaptation funding agency need to decide what counts as adaptation In 2009, DFID contracted AidData to categorized all 2,226 projects in DFIDs portfolio Goal was to understand which projects would be captured by different categorization schemes Expert review at June 2009 Bonn UNFCCC negotiations

The categorizations 1. OECD Rio Markers (Mitigation) 2. OECD Draft Adaptation Markers 3. Mitigation and Adaptation Planning and Action 4. High-Carbon vs. Low-Carbon Adaptation 5. Adaptation "Models" (WRI 1) 6. The "Targetedness Continuum (WRI 2) 7. Adaptation Strategies Employed (WRI 3) 8. Vernons (DFID) Triangle Categorization 9. LDC/Lesotho 2008 position on adaptation 10. EU Framework for Action on Adaptation 11. Nairobi Work Programme 12. Bellagio Framework 13. Qualifies for Waxman-Markey Bill Adaptation Funding 14. World Bank Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) Qualifying Requirements

12 categorizations of 2,226 DFID projects

OECD Climate Adaptation Marker 1 – Significant objective: Adaptation to climate change was an important, but not principal objective. Minimum criteria: a.) It is intended to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to the impacts of climate change by increasing adaptive capacity and resilience and reducing climate related risk; or b.) It aims to develop the necessary capacity to forecast the impacts of climate change, to assess climate risks and vulnerability or to develop climate risk management responses 2 – Principal objective: Climate change adaptation is an explicit objective of the activity and fundamental in its design; a principal objective meets the minimum criteria of a significant objective, while answering negatively to the question Would the activity have been undertaken without this objective?

WRI targetedness continuum Weathering the Storm McGray – No noted adaptation features of project 1 – Addressing the Drivers of Vulnerability: At the development end of the spectrum, activities reduce poverty and address other fundamental shortages of capability that make people vulnerable to harm. 2 – Building Response Capacity: Adaptation activities focus on building robust systems for problem solving. 3 – Managing Climate Risk: 4 – Confronting Climate Change: Actions focus almost exclusively on addressing impacts associated with climate change. 99 – Not sufficient data to categorize

DFID Triangle (Vernon 2008) 0 – Not targeted: Outside the DFID Adaptation Circle. 1 – Good development practice: Educated, healthy people working in a diversified economy are less vulnerable overall and better able to deal with climatic shocks and change 2 – Climate proofing climate-sensitive development measures and efforts to reduce vulnerability 3 – Expanding climate-relevant development measures and efforts to build resilience and reduce vulnerability, e.g. disaster risk reduction (incremental shifts). 4 – Undertaking climate-specific measures to target climate risks (new approach). 99 – Insufficient data to categorize

Figure 1 Figure 3 Figure 2 Figure 4

A consensus measure?

AdaptationWatch promoting transparency & accountability in climate adaptation

Conclusions Promises require a climate funding registry and tracking Need for independent categorization of projects There was a fairly remarkable consensus that about percent of DFID projects in were narrowly defined as adaptation Over 30 times as many projects fall under a broad definition of adaptation as the narrow adaptation classification Several options exist for categorizationcould nest DRR inside climate adaptation funding Much future research needed

Contact Us Timmons Roberts, Brown University, USA Aiddata.org

Extra slides

Population Density and Active World Bank Projects

Poverty and Active World Bank Projects

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