Development of a Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu Engr. Ildefonso T. Patdu, Jr. Director, Project Development Service Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) Cebu City BRT Studies Coordination Conference May 9, 2009 Park Lane Hotel, Archbishop Reyes Ave. and Escario St., Cebu City

Outline Background: Metro Cebu Transport Strategy Role of DOTC Objectives of the Project Project Activities Schedule of Activities

Background: Metro Cebu Metro Cebu is composed of four (4) cities of Cebu, Mandaue, Lapu-Lapu and Talisay, and the six (6) adjacent municipalities of Naga, Minglanilla, Liloan, Consolacion, Cordova and Compostela Defined in the 1994 Cebu Integrated Area Development Master Plan Study (CIADMPS) It is the country’s second international gateway and has the second largest urban area in the Philippines

High Population Growth Over the years, the metropolitan area has been experiencing a rapid growth in population and an increasing level of urbanization From a total of 1,693,881 persons reported in 2000, the population of Metro Cebu has increased to over 2 million in 2007, registering a 2.8% population growth rate for the period

Population Growth Rate Population of Metro Cebu for the Years 2000 and 2007 City/ Municipality Population Population Growth Rate 2000 % Share 2007 Cebu City 718,821 42.44% 798,809 38.97% 1.52% Mandaue City 259,728 15.33% 318,575 15.54% 2.96% Lapu-Lapu City 217,019 12.81% 292,530 14.27% 4.36% Talisay City 148,110 8.74% 179,359 8.75% 2.77% Naga 80,189 4.73% 95,163 4.64% 2.48% Minglanilla 77,268 4.56% 101,585 4.96% 3.99% Liloan 64,970 3.84% 92,181 4.50% 5.12% Consolacion 62,298 3.68% 87,544 4.27% 4.98% Cordova 34,032 2.01% 45,066 2.20% 4.09% Compostela 31,446 1.86% 39,167 1.91% 3.19% Total 1,693,881 100.00% 2,049,979 Ave 2.76% Source: Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS The share of Cebu City’s population to Metro Cebu decreased from 53% of the total population in 1970 to 42% and 39% in 2000 and 2007, respectively. Among the component cities and municipalities of Metro Cebu, Cebu City itself had a decelerating growth rate for the past three decades while the adjoining cities and municipalities were growing comparatively faster

Increasing Use of Private Mode The increasing level of urbanization is accompanied by a corresponding shift in the preferred mode of transportation from public to private transport The share of trips using private modes at the 1979 level of 9.7% has increased to 20.6% by the year 1992, while the share of public transport has decreased from its previous level of 90.3% to 79.4% during the same period Contributes to worsening traffic congestion and increasing air pollution levels

Motor Vehicle Registration in Cebu In 1994-1999, Cebu City’s share ranged from 40 to 55% of the total vehicles registered in Cebu Province. From 1994 to 2000, motor vehicle registration in Cebu City tremendously increased by 42.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 7.0% while the increment in 2000 to 2006 was halved to 21.4% or an average annual growth rate of 3.6%. Source: Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS In 1994-1999, Cebu City’s share ranged from 40 to 55% of the total vehicles registered in Cebu Province. From 1994 to 2000, motor vehicle registration in Cebu City tremendously increased by 42.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 7.0% while the increment in 2000 to 2006 was halved to 21.4% or an average annual growth rate of 3.6%.

Metro Cebu Travel Demand , 1979-2020 Mode 1979 1992 2012* 2020* Private 110,500 9.7% 305,666 20.6% 515,416 17.1% 989,910 23.5% Public 1,028,900 90.3% 1,180,408 79.4% 2,492,066 82.9% 3,229,717 76.5% Total 1,139,400 100.0 1,486,074 3,007,482 4,219,627 Trip Rate 1.10 1.26 1.54 1.61 Notes: *projected using regression Source: Cebu City CLUP (2000) Based on the 1979 Metro Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS) report and the 1992 Home Interview Supplemental Survey conducted by the Metro Cebu Development Project (MCDP) Phase 3, the Metro Cebu Trip Demand Projection estimated that the share of trips using the private modes increased from 9.7% in 1979 to 20.6% in 1992 while the share of trips using public transport decreased from 90.3% in 1979 to 79.4% in 1992. Based on the 1979 Metro Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS) report and the 1992 Home Interview Supplemental Survey conducted by the Metro Cebu Development Project (MCDP) Phase 3, the Metro Cebu Trip Demand Projection estimated that the share of trips using the private modes increased from 9.7% in 1979 to 20.6% in 1992 while the share of trips using public transport decreased from 90.3% in 1979 to 79.4% in 1992.

Annual Average TSP Level (ug TSP/N cu. m) in Selected Stations in Metro Cebu Source: Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS In 1995-2000, all stations were observed to exceed the 1-year ambient air quality guideline value for TSP of 90 mcg/N. cu. m. with peak concentrations occurring in 1999. In 2001-2006, there has been a slight improvement due to presence of annual average concentration values below the guideline value. Around 1-2 stations still exceed the guideline value. With few available data, the annual average concentrations of PM10 were also obtained and it was observed that there was one station that exceeded the guideline value of 60 mcg/N. cu. m. in 2002-2003. This indicates that air pollution is still a continuing problem for the city. In 1995-2000, all stations were observed to exceed the 1-year ambient air quality guideline value for TSP of 90 mcg/N. cu. m. with peak concentrations occurring in 1999. In 2001-2006, there has been a slight improvement due to presence of annual average concentration values below the guideline value. Around 1-2 stations still exceed the guideline value. With few available data, the annual average concentrations of PM10 were also obtained and it was observed that there was one station that exceeded the guideline value of 60 mcg/N. cu. m. in 2002-2003. This indicates that air pollution is still a continuing problem for the city.

Cost of Air Pollution

Cost of Air Pollution The Philippines Environment Monitor study (World Bank, 2002) quantified the detrimental effect of air pollution on the health, productivity and quality of life into economic values and it estimated that the total cost of the exposure to PM10 in the four cities of Metro Manila, Baguio, Cebu and Davao adds up to over US$430 million. Among the four cities, Cebu City ranked second to Metro Manila in derived costs, which in 2001, was equivalent to US$16 million.

Cost Traffic Congestion

Transport Strategy As a possible strategy to alleviate congestion along the heavy traffic corridors of Metro Cebu and to arrest the increasing level of air pollution in the area, the development and promotion of public transportation is envisioned It is noted that the last comprehensive transport study for the metropolitan area was the Metro Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS), which was conducted way back in 1978 by the then Ministry of Public Works, Transportation and Communication (MPWTC) with technical assistance from the Government of Australia.

Role of DOTC The Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) as the lead agency responsible for the promotion of Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) intends to support Metro Cebu in the promotion and development of public transportation DOTC intends to engage the services of a qualified consulting firm for the development of a Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu that will span a planning horizon of up to the year 2020. The Plan is expected to provide the blueprint for the development and promotion of public transportation in Metro Cebu within the established planning horizon

Role of DOTC The DOTC moreover intends that the Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu will be developed with the use of sketch planning methodology and tools The key idea of sketch planning method is to facilitate the generation of alternatives quickly and easily.

Sketch Planning Methodology The methodology shall incorporate both demand-side and supply-side aspects of public transportation that is able to analyze various planning scenarios and perform ‘what-if’ types of analysis The analysis shall take into consideration existing development plans for Metro Cebu over a planning horizon of 20 years with 2009 as the Base Year.

Sketch Planning Methodology Main features: Adopting the logic structure of the traditional transportation modeling process; Limiting the classification of trip purposes (working, schooling, shopping and others) and trip modes (private car, transit and walking); Setting the appropriate zoning system (grouping of residents and activities) that are consistent with past zoning systems, especially MCLUTS; Updated network representation with appropriate level of aggregation; Utilization of past origin-destination (OD) tables as bases for OD table updating; and Modest model calibration but where practicable employ extensive use of matrix estimation techniques

Objectives of the Study Identify the traffic corridors in the metropolitan area where the promotion and development of public transportation would be most effective in addressing the emerging problems of increasing traffic congestion and air pollution; Establish and provide the necessary directions and appropriate strategies for the development and promotion of public transportation in Metro Cebu in the short, medium and long term periods; Generate a shopping list of potential programs and projects for the short, medium and long term planning horizons;

Objectives of the Study Identify list of high priority programs and projects that may be considered by the DOTC and/or other concerned stakeholders; Establish the relative viability of selected high priority programs and projects for implementation; and Provide the DOTC a sketch planning methodology and tools for use in future updating of the Plan.

Project Activities Compilation and Assessment of Existing Data Development of a Public Transportation Sketch Planning Methodology Conduct of Transport and Traffic Surveys Development of Public Transportation Sketch Planning Tool Development of a Metropolitan-Wide Public Transportation Strategic Plan Conduct of Pre-Feasibility Studies for Identified High Priority Projects

Schedule of Activities

Thank you!