1. Assessing the Impacts of Traffic Mitigation Measures in Metro Manila through Multi-level Modeling
Dr. Noriel Tiglao
Citilabs 2012 Asia User Conference, Sept.4-7
Plaza Athénée Bangkok, A Royal Méridien Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand

2. Outline Metro Manila Urbanization Travel Demand Patterns
Nature of Traffic Congestion Problem
Transport Modelling Issues
Need for Multi-level Modelling
Benefits of Cube

3. Metro Manila Urbanization
High population growth rates and in-migration
13 percent of the country’s population are packed in only about 0.2 percent of the country’s land area
Metro Manila dominates the economy accounting for 43.5 percent of the country’s GDP in 2000
The effect of rapid urbanization of the metropolis spilled over the adjoining municipalities
Comprised of 17 cities and municipalities

4. Metro Manila Land Area: 636 sq. km Population (2007): 11.55 million
Population Density (2007): 18,166 persons/ sq. km

5. ‘Mega’ Manila 100-Km radius Land Area: 38,544 sq. km
Population (2000): 27.4 million
Population Density (2000): 712 persons/ sq. km

6. Metro Manila Traffic Demand
Source: MMUTIS (1999)

7. Travel Demand Pattern
Drastic increase in motorized trips in Metro Manila
From 10.6 million trips in 1980 to million trips in 1996
Serious increase in car ownership
From 10% in 1980 to 20% in 1996
6.75% average growth rate in vehicle registration for Metro Manila from 1990 to 2005
Higher vehicle registration growth rates in adjacent regions
Alarming increase in motorcycle share since 2005, accounting for almost half of the vehicle fleet

8. Economic Cost of Traffic Congestion
100 Billion Pesos (in 1996 values) is lost each year due to road congestion
Roughly 2% of GDP
Based on travel time delays and 50% of hourly income across different occupation groups
In addition, reduction in the urban quality of life increases health and living costs
Source: Economic Impact of Traffic Congestion in Metro Manila,” A Study conducted by University of the Philippines National Center for Transportation Studies (NCTS) for the NEDA Legislative Executive Development Advisory Committee (LEDAC), 2000.

9. Metro Manila Road NetworkC1 C2 C3 C4 C5
NLEX
SLEX
CAVITEX

10. Traffic Congestion Problem
Vehicle volume
Pedestrian flows
Truck traffic
Stalled vehicles
Roadside parking
Oversupply of buses
Motorcycle traffic
Intersection treatment
Poor pavement quality
Uneven road geometry

11. Traffic Mitigation Measures
Vehicle volume – Color coding, UVVRP
Pedestrian flows – Pedestrian barriers, Footbridges
Truck traffic – Truck ban
Stalled vehicles – Emergency bays
Roadside parking – (Curbside development)
Oversupply of buses – (Yellow lanes)
Motorcycle traffic – (Motorcycle lanes)
Intersection treatment – (U-turns, grade separation)
Poor pavement quality – (Pavement rehabilitation)
Uneven road geometry – ???

12. Transport Modelling Issues
Nowadays, agencies require thorough Traffic Impact Analysis as part of the Feasbility Study
Important to consider economic and social considerations
In heavily built-up areas/congested areas, justifying (costly) isolated interventions is a challenge
Case in point: a flyover/underpass for through traffic
Greater need to analyze a combination of mitigation projects at various level
e.g. network expansion in one area and intersection treatment in another

13. Need for Multi-level Modelling
Macroscopic
Region-Wide analysis
Evaluation of network effects
Mesoscopic
Dynamic Traffic Assignment
Queuing Analysis
Microscopic
Traffic operation level, e.g. Signal design

14. Multi-level Modelling - Macroscopic
Subarea extraction

15. Multi-level Modelling - Mesoscopic
Packet log analysis
Packet log animation

16. Multi-level Modelling - Microscopic
Proposed Grade Separation

17. Benefits of Cube
Consistency and flexibility in terms of modelling networks, flows, time, and travel behavior
Increase response rate, cost-effective
Analyze many scenarios in shorter time periods
Results are easily accessible for decision-making
Perform sensitivity analysis, share data across various data formats

18. Thank you!