Wrong horse, wrong race: Japanese militarisation and Japan’s real security needs Richard Tanter Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability

1 Prime Minister Abe Shinzo on upgrading the Defence Agency to the Ministry of Defence "a landmark event that marks the end of the postwar regime and will lay the groundwork for building a new state."

2 Security of the society: Minister of Labour, Health and Welfare, Yanagisawa Hakuo “ The number of women between the ages of 15 and 50 is fixed. The number of birth-giving machines (and) devices is fixed, so all we can ask is that they do their best per head."

3 Japanese security - old tensions Russia - Northern Territories The weight of history –Russia –China – Koreas the benefits and costs of the US alliance

4 Japanese security tensions - new stories Whose version of “Global responsibilities”? North Korea - again South Korea Taiwan mega-terrorism sea-lanes and Southeast Asia oil and gas - China and Russia the rise of China per se US extended nuclear deterrence

5 Japan-centred hemisphere

6 The view from China, Russia and Korea

7 What is new: Heisei militarization hollowing-out Article 9 shift from “defensive defense” to “threat- based defence” upgrading and expanding military forces willingness to rely on military solutions legitimation of use of military force abroad closer operational integration with US forces growing possibility of weapons of mass destruction

8 New security thinking The past: –Yoshida doctrine –defensive defence and comprehensive defence –the culture of Article 9 The future: –Proportional (to threats) defence –“Great power realism” –The new nationalism

New policy developments in Heisei militarisation Special forces Intelligence Overseas deployments Missile defence

10 The fading taboo - the nuclear option The means necessary –nuclear device –targeting capacity –delivery capacity The impediments –US –public opinion –IAEA and NPT The pressures The chances

11 Strategic contexts for Japanese risk Japanese politics - chronic crisis and democratic deficits delegitimising Japanese democracy abroad - history, sex and negative soft power the brevity of the American “unipolar moment” Japan’s choice: US vs. China? the delayed American choice on China the implausible solidity of Market-Leninism in China the restructuring of East Asia?

12 Five high impact, East Asia- relevant global problems as Japanese security threats climate change - sudden or progressive infectitious disease pandemic energy and resource depletion and competition Cross-border pollution regressive consequences of globalisation - cultural and economic

13 Characteristics of global problems complex and inter-related pose acute vulnerability to humans cause and effect often separated time sequences and rates of change complex, unpredictable national solutions inadequate governmental solutions inadequate can only be solved jointly and simultaneously

14 Wrong horse, wrong race The anachronism of Great Power Realism for Japan The problem of nationalisms –Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Russian and American What has been jettisoned in Japan The real security imperatives from regional expressions of global problems Alternative potentials