1. Preventative Defense & Space Cooperation: A Case for Liberal Engagement with the Russian Space Industry Dan Berkenstock Stanford University Aero/Astro Department 2005 IDL Student Conference on International Security

2. Background United States foreign policy towards Russia during the 1990’s was dominated by a struggle between realists and liberalists in the United States government: Should US policy seek to increase US favor in the struggle for international power? Should the US should bring its full weight towards enacting internal change in Russia?

3. A Two Tiered Problem

4. Tier One Missile Technology Control Regime International Space Station The emergence of stabilizing forces RSA (РКА) Realist threat, met with liberal engagement

5. Crisis

6. Tier Two Mission statement Place in global space marketplace Future Liberal interests: international institutions, development of commercial interests

7. A Strategic Choice Potential missile cooperation/ proliferation Input Outputs Liberal engagement Realist disengagement

8. Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000 No transferring of funds from NASA to Russian Space Agency for International Space Station Sanctions for Russian entities in violation of MTCR Penalties to American companies collaborating

9. Preventative Defense Preventative Defense says: Identify rising A-level threats, shape international environment to avert them preventatively. A-Level Threat Emergence of Russian Space Industry as pariah providing turn-key missile packages to a number of regimes

10. Arguments vs. Realism Issue of monolithic chain of command Asymmetric impact of funding withdrawal Success stories required engagement

11. Alternatives Targeted funding for engineering development (ISTC’s) Boots on the ground Space Station contingency engineering Integration at all levels

12. Conclusions Big Task Change decades old business plan in face of possible political and security considerations for Russia. Will not happen overnight. United States as Salesman vs. Policeman