NGOs: The Bad News World Trade Centers, NYC

Pentagon

Anthrax Cases Fall 2001

Aum Shinrikyo Chemical Weapon Attack March 20, 1995 Asahara Shoko

Oklahoma City, April 19, 1995

A New World? Globalization Ease of travel Ease of global finance Communications revolution States – Ability to communicate lose globally monopoly Information revolution on – Ability to share large influence amounts of information with and anyone, anywhere, anytime violence – Global spread of technology

Defining Terrorism 1.Political Agenda 2.Cause pain and fear: violence to further political agenda 3.Targeting civilians 4.Publicity 5.Non-state actors*

The Terrorist “Logic” Terrorist Violence Causes pain and fear in targeted audience Publicizes a political agenda and terrorist’s demands Public demands action that will end terrorist attacks Change in gov’t policy

The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004 Spain supports US in Iraq People’s Party in favor of Spanish intervention Socialist Worker’s Party wants to withdraw; AQ warns Spain to leave or face reprisal; Parliamentary elections on 3/14; PP favored

Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004

The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004 March 11 attack on train station; 200 killed; 1400 wounded Voters fear more reprisals Debate on Spanish Iraq policy takes center stage Electoral Surprise; PP loses; Worker’s Party wins New gov’t led by Worker’s Party Changes policy

Terrorism is not Foreign

Terrorism is Not New: King David Hotel 1946

Al-Qaeda as an NGO 1996 fatwa 1998 fatwa Al-Qaeda Training Manual (from Dept. of Justice) Al-Qaeda Training Manual (from Dept. of Justice) Bin-Laden videos Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery Article on Mustafa Article Setmariam Nasar (Abu Musab al-Suri) Militant Ideology Atlas (Combating Terrorism Center) Osama bin-Laden

AQAM Ideology Salafists (pure Islam) Anti-American Anti-western Anti-colonial (resistance or defense) End separation of Church and state No pluralism in Islam Anti-nation-state – Rebuild the Caliphate Anti-Democracy

Origins of AQ Iranian Revolution ( ) provides inspirationforeign fighters formationgo home, of Afghan mujahadin form new groups or join existing Pakistan militarygroups, create a allies with radicalglobal terror Islamic groups ( )network provides sanctuary Ideological legacy USSR invades US, China, Pakistan Soviets of radical Islamic AfghanistanEgypt, Saudi Arabia, withdraw thought 1979and others funding, 1989 provides ideologysupplying, and training and inspirationmujahadin and jihadis OBL and others recruit Saudi funded religious schools volunteers al-Qaeda (global) (madrassas) in Middle East from madrassasAbu Sayyaf (Phil.) and Asia (1970s-1980s) in M. E. and AsiaGIA (Algeria) provides recruits with ideology (foreign fightersHAMAS or jihadis)Islamic Jihad IMU Jemaah Islamiah PIJ Bosnia, Chechnya, Kashmir… Time

Politics, not Religion Important: This does not represent the average Muslim Timothy McVeigh was not the average Christian AQ is a far greater threat to Muslims than to Americans This is a political movement that uses a twisted version of Islam

Geography of Islam Non-Middle eastern states Indonesia 225 m Pakistan 170 m Bangladesh 150 m India 140 m Turkey 76 m Nigeria 75 m (of 150 m) Afghanistan 31 m Sudan 28 (of 41 m) Middle Eastern states Egypt 70 m Iran 65 m Algeria 32 m Morocco 32 m Iraq 25 m Saudi Arabia 22 m Syria 16.2 m Jordan 4.6

Explaining the Growth of Extremist Ideas Political Factors*Technological factors Authoritarian governmentadvances in communication Corrupt governmentcomputers for info storage Lack of civil rights; no democracyinternet and Lack of human rights; no individual freedomsease of travel Liberal and moderate ideas crushedease of global financial transactions Radical ideas crushed (Egypt)advantages of networks Radical ideas encouraged (Saudi Arabia)globalization Prison torture SOP Controlled press spreads ruling ideology Anti-West and anti-USSocial Factors Colonialism in past*Rapid economic change Strong religious traditions*Population growth Pan-Islamic ideasLack of social and economic mobility Pan-Arab ideas*More university education; lack of jobs *Failures of secular nationalism (Syria, Iraq)*Generation with a lack of identity No outlet for moderate dissent or debate*Expectations of success; lack of success Israeli-Palestinian conflict*Expectations of change; lack of change Economic Factors Poverty Small wealthy elite*Geopolitical Factors *Expectations of wealth through oilRapid wealth creation in Middle East *Rising populationIranian revolution *Massive underemploymentGlobalization Socialist economiesSoviet Invasion of Afghanistan Closed economiesCollapse of Cold War *Knowledge of wealth in other societiesInstability of shift to post-cold war world *Temporal Factors: These variables explain why events happened when they did. Many people ask why radical Islam developed, but we need to ask why it developed and why it developed when it developed. Growth of extremist ideas