IEA analysis for sustainable transport Outline of IEA Mobility Model, Achievements and Plans As of March 2010 Lew Fulton, Pierpaolo Cazzola, François Cuenot Division of Energy Technology Policy International Energy Agency

IEA analysis for sustainable transport Project development 2003 WBCSD project and SMP model  First Generation Model available on the SMP website  SMP model used for the Mobility 2030 report scenarios exploring energy use, CO 2 and pollutant emissions, safety and materials use SMP model developed further into the first version of the MoMo model  MoMo data used for the IEA ETP analysis and ETP Second phase of model development  Deeper analysis of vehicle technology potential (incl. PHEVs)  Elasticities of travel with respect to income and prices  Significant amount of historical data integrated in the model  Development of ETP 2008 scenarios Third phase of model development

IEA analysis for sustainable transport What is MoMo? It is a spreadsheet model of global transport, energy use, emissions, safety, and materials use  analysis of a multiple set of scenarios, projections to 2050  Based on hypotheses on GDP and population growth, fuel economies, costs, travel demand, vehicle and fuel market shares World divided in 11 regions, plus a good number of specific countries (for road modes only, being extended to other modes)  USA, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, Korea, China, India  The model is suitable for handling regional and global issues It contains a large amount of information (data) on technologies and fuel pathways  full evaluation of the life cycle GHG emissions  cost estimates for new light duty vehicles  estimates for fuels costs and taxes  section on material requirements for LDV manufacturing It is based on the "ASIF" framework: Activity ( passenger travel ) * Structure ( travel by mode, load factors ) * Energy Intensity = Fuel use

IEA analysis for sustainable transport Analytical capabilities (1) For LDVs and trucks, Tracking of  A stock model has been developed for LDVs  Activity, intensity, energy use  GHG emissions (on a WTW, a TTW basis)  Pollutant emissions (CO, VOCs, PM, lead and NO x )  Fuel and vehicle costs (only for LDVs) For buses, 2/3 wheelers, we track stock, tkm, stock efficiency, energy use and emissions For rail and air, total travel activity (in pkm or tkm), stock efficiency, energy use and emissions is tracked For shipping, so far just energy use and emissions Material requirements and emissions have been integrated in the model  Analysis of future vehicle sales (e.g. fuel cells) and how they impact materials requirements (e.g. precious metals, Li) is possible  Full life-cycle analysis for GHG emissions from LDVs (including manufacturing);  Tailpipe emissions of various pollutants

IEA analysis for sustainable transport Analytical capabilities (2) Increasingly versatile model  Suitable for simple “what-if analysis” to understand changing trends given the variation of one or more variables Analysis of hypotheses on vehicle fuel economies and fuel shares Learning incorporated in the model, given initial and “asymptotic” technology prices  Suitable for analysis based on inputs relative to economic growth, population growth and the variation of fuel prices Travel and vehicle ownership affected Prices module being improved to account for the variation of the main feedstock prices given changes in the oil price  Full "back-casting“ possible The model is fully transparent, all calculations can be tracked back No black box effect Inevitable limitations, being progressively overcome to help the model user and to improve the quality of the results

IEA analysis for sustainable transport Coverage of transport modes 2-3 wheelers Light duty vehicles  Spark ignition (SI) ICEs  Compression ignition (CI) ICEs  SI hybrid ICEs (including plug-ins)  CI hybrid ICEs (including plug-ins)  Hydrogen ICE hybrids (including plug-ins)  Fuel cell vehicles  Electric vehicles Heavy and duty vehicles  Passenger Minibuses Buses  Freight Medium freight trucks Heavy freight trucks Rail  Passenger  Freight Air Water transport  National  International

IEA analysis for sustainable transport Coverage of fuel pathways Liquid petroleum fuels  Gasoline  Diesel (high- and low-sulphur) Biofuels  Ethanol Grain, sugar cane, advanced technologies (lignocellulose)  Biodiesel Conventional (fatty acid methyl esters, FAME or biodiesel obtained from hydrogenation of vegetable oil in refineries), advanced processes (BTL, fast pyrolysis, hydrothermal upgrade) Synthetic fuels GTL and CTL CNG/LPG CNG, LPG, biogas Electricity Separately for EVs and PHEVs; by generation mix, by region Hydrogen from natural gas, with and without CO 2 sequestration from electricity, point of use electrolysis, with and without CO 2 sequestration from biomass gasification advanced low GHG hydrogen production

IEA analysis for sustainable transport Who supports this work? Now 7 partner companies; 6 have been financing the project development since the end of the SMP Volkswagen has recently joined the group Institute for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS - a Japanese research institute) has also joined the project in US DoE also joined in March There appears to be rapidly growing interest from other groups in using the Model. We are grappling with this and considering how we might structure cooperations in the future.

© OECD/IEA 2009 New Model architecture

© OECD/IEA 2009 Master File

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability IEA’s New Transport Publication Book features: Indicator update and extension to more countries Technology potential and cost updates Fuel and Modal assessments (LDV, truck, aviation, shipping) Detailed scenario analysis with regional detail – Baseline, High Baseline, Modal Shift, BLUE technology scenarios Role of future technologies, modal shift More regional detail than in ETP Continuing development of CO2 mitigation cost analysis Policy considerations Released 27 October, 2009 Builds on ETP 2008, will feed into ETP 2010 Transport analysis based on on-going development of IEA Mobility Model, supporting research

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability The transport book builds on IEA/ETP 2008 IEA ETP 2008: Where reductions come from

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability Key Findings Baseline (WEO Reference Case) transport fuel use 80% higher by 2050; a new High Baseline reaches 25% higher energy use in 2050 Mainly dependent on car sales projections and freight sensitivity to economic growth Fuel economy improvement remains among most cost-effective measures Can reach 50% improvement for LDVs and 30-50% for other modes by 2050 or before Alt fuels still critical, though biofuels concerns growing; electrification may be key Biofuels still important but concerns about sustainability are growing; a roadmap for achieving 2050 levels in BLUE is needed Costs for batteries and fuel cells are dropping; EVs may reach commercial production very soon PHEVs appear to be a promising transition strategy

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability Key Findings (cont.) Additional reductions can come from changes in the nature of travel Modal shift analysis suggests that a 25% reduction from 2050 Baseline is feasible (almost 50% compared to High Baseline), though more work is needed on the costs and policies to get there Technologies such as Bus Rapid Transit will be important, but ultimately its about land use planning and a comprehensive approach to travel policies. Together modal shift, efficiency improvements and alt fuels could cut transport CO2 by 70% compared to baseline in 2050 (30% below 2005) More technology cost work is needed for aviation and shipping, but initial assessment suggests that many relatively low cost opportunities may be available. For LDVs, 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050 at under 200 USD/tonne in that year

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability Energy use by scenario In BLUE Map/Shifts, energy use returns to 2005 level, and with more than 50% very low CO2 fuels

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability Car ownership projections The difference between 2 and 3 billion cars in 2050…

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability Land Passenger travel by mode and region, Baseline scenario Non-OECD is where the growth happens, though from a far lower base per capita than OECD Total Per capita

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability Passenger Travel: Changes from Baseline to BLUE Shifts Case in 2050 Shifting 25% of LDV and air travel can cut total energy use by 20% in 2050

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability IEA Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Roadmap published October 2009

© OECD/IEA TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO 2 Moving Toward Sustainability IEA ETP BLUE Map: advanced technologies must play a major role Unprecedented rates of change in market penetration of advanced technologies