1. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Freight transport trends & GHG emissions Overview and key issues Philippe Crist, OECD Environment Directorate

2. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 CO 2 Emissions from Freight: Context Transport: ~26% of OECD CO 2 emissions Freight: ~30-40% of transport CO 2 emissions

3. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 CO2 from Freight Drivers A ctivity/Volume S tructure/Mode Share I ntensity/Energy Efficiency F uel

4. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Activity Micro level Derived Demand: Siting, transport links (rationalisation of supply base: increase in transport distances of 1.5-2% in EU) Macro Level GDP, freight transport (3.4%/yr, 5.4%/yr road), geography & economy

5. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 0 5 10 15 20 5000 Total Freight Volume and GDP: Correlation and variability Source: IEA

6. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Mode Share Road Rail Shipping Air

7. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Road Freight Transport 44% of OECD t/km (higher value/shorter distances) Gaining share everywhere

8. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 million tonne/kilometres 197019751980198519901995 Road Freight Growth tonne/km United States EU-15 Japan Source: OECD, EEA, USDOT

9. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Road Freight Transport Benefiting from shifts in production patterns and product cycles Congestion Role of transport market liberalisation

10. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Rail Freight Transport 36% of OECD t/km (lower value/longer distances) Absolute gains, relative losses

11. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 million tonne/kilometres United States EU-15 Japan 197019751980198519901995 Rail Freight Growth tonne/km Source: OECD, EEA, USDOT

12. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Rail Freight Transport Increase in intermodal systems Market deregulation Infrastructure issues

13. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Inland (and Coastal) Shipping Inland shipping ~20% OECD tn/km (low value/long distances) Globalisation benefits shipping Absolute gains, relative losses

14. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 million tonne/kilometres 197019751980198519901995 United States EU-15 Japan Shipping Freight Growth tonne/km Source: OECD, EEA, USDOT

15. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Airborne Freight Transport Low absolute levels, highest growth (medium to high value goods, long distances) Globalisation benefits air Rel. low costs (for high value goods), short product and production cycles drivers

16. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Energy Intensity Function of mode share, technical efficiency, and load factors

17. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 GHG Emissions in CO2 equivalent g/tkm Indirect emissions Direct emissions Light van gasoline Light van diesel HGV 16 tonne Euro2 HGV 28 tonne Euro2 HGV 40 tonne Euro2 Rail combined container Rail combined piggy Rail wagon UCPTE Inland Shipping Maritime Shipping Air Lifecycle GHG Emissions European Freight Transport Modes Source: INFRAS, Zurich

18. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Energy Intensity Technical efficiency improvements: ambiguous-- Lorry 20-30% improvements not translated into energy intensity improvements per t/km Improvements in other areas: Driver training, logistics chain management, vehicle utilisation, etc.

19. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 54% of trips were loaded to between 1.5m and 1.7m 24% of trips to more than 1.7m 17% to between 1.5m and 0.8m and 5% under 0.8m 2.4m Road Freight Loading UK Survey Results Tonne -out vs. Square out vs. Cube -out Source: A. McKinnon, Heriot-Watt Univ.

20. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Variability in Fleet Energy Intensity 1998 UK Lorry Fleet Survey Source: A. McKinnon, Heriot-Watt Univ.

21. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Potential Fuel Savings from Best Practice 1998 UK Lorry Fleet Survey if fleets below mean performance achieve mean performance if fleets below mean of top 1/3, achieve mean performance of top 1/3 motive fuel savings litres 4,670,33614,726,121 reduction on current level of fuel use % 929 reduction in CO 2 emissions tonnes 12,42339,171 cost saving per vehicle £ 2,2557,109 Source: A. McKinnon, Heriot-Watt Univ.

22. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Fuels Petroleum-based fuels dominate Little use of alternative fuels, stock turn-over, questions re. Fuel cells Ambiguity of fuel prices for firm-level strategic decision-making

23. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Logistics costs = 7.5% of sales revenue Road transport costs = 30% of logistics costs Fuel = 25-30% of road transport costs Fuel = 0.6 - 0.7 % of sales revenue Road Fuel Costs in Perspective EU data Source: A. McKinnon, Heriot-Watt Univ.

24. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Policy Issues Different discourses/different agendas Unit gains vs. Volume effects Action now, impacts later Technology vs. Practices Instruments: Relevant? Fuel prices? Congestion? De-coupling Economic Activity and Freight transport volume

25. OECD ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT OCDE ORGANISATION DE COOPERATION ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUES Annex I Expert Group 18/02/2000 Voluntary reduction of CO2 emissions: - 45% from 1993 to 2005 Source: Arretz, Otto-Versand