1 1 BSPS Seminar, GLA May 2 nd 2006 Professor Philip Rees Dr Peter Boden Estimating London’s New Migrant Population

2 2 This presentation Context Project objectives Concepts & definitions TIM Model & National Statistics Data Sources New Migrant Databank – an analytical framework?

3 3 Context

4 4 Components of UK Population Change Natural Increase Net migration and other changes Sources: Population estimates: ONS, GRO for Scotland, NISRA Over 65% of UK’s annual increase is now attributable to net international migration.

5 5 European GDP per Capita in PPS, 2005 (EU-25=100) Source: Eurostat (2005)

6 6 Headline Statistics ,000 new migrants to the UK, a total net-inflow of 223, Net international inflow is projected to remain at a relatively high level for the next 25 years Net inflow of over 700,000 migrants to Greater London, approximately two-thirds of the national total.

7 7 GAD – Population projections Source: GAD (2005)

8 8 Measurement There is not a single, all-inclusive system in place to measure movements of population into or out of the UK. ONS, Series MN 2004

9 9 Statistical harmonisation EU Regulation The regulation will require EU Member States to produce annually, a full set of statistics on international migration and asylum (from 2007) THESIM Towards Harmonised European Statistics on International Migration Analysis of the implications of the new EU Regulation and a series of recommendations for implementation

10 Project Objectives

11 Service Provision For London, the need to adequately plan its service provision is critical to the socio-economic development of its communities Housing, transport, health, environment A key driver is robust measurement of the new migrant population, including refugees and asylum seekers. Scale, composition, distribution

12 GLA Requirements

13 Project Approach

14 Collaborative Benchmark –Summarise the new migrant statistical picture (availability, consistency, quality) Sponsor –Understand GLA methodologies and data sources Stakeholders –Incorporate views of other London stakeholder bodies National Bodies / UK Regions –Integrate review process with activities and requirements of other stakeholder bodies

15 Migration Process Concepts & Definitions

16 UK International Passenger Arrivals and Departures Including Migration Flows

17 Definitions Long-term migrant (UN definition) A person whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 12 mths or more Basis for UK statistics on total annual immigration and emigration Short-term migrant A person whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 3-12 months Not part of the UK statistics delivery

18 Concepts Stocks Resident migrants Flows New migrants

19 Flows - Moves or Transitions e.g. GP registration Moves Transitions e.g. Census

20 TIM – National Statistics

21 TIM Methodology

22 TIM estimates Source: ONS (2005)

23 NSQR Initiatives Short-term vs long-term migrants Introduction of new IPS question in 2004 to identify short-term migrants with an intended length of stay of 3-6 months Household surveys to estimate sub-national distributions Census, LFS & IPS NHS administrative data to estimate sub-national distributions Initial investigation looks promising for in-migrant estimation but not for emigration due to poor coverage.

24 Measuring Migration UK Data Sources

25 Evaluating each data source…

26 Migration Data Sources: Key Features

27 Migration Data Sources: Key Variables

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30 ONS Analysis – IPS/LFS/Census LFS vs Census Comparison of LFS and Census migrant data for 2001 at GOR level. Suggests LFS provides a credible source of migrant data LFS provides a complementary source of data for regional distribution of in-migrants

31 NHS Registration Statistics

32 NHS Data Analysis Comparative analysis of Patient Register Data and TIM estimates has been undertaken: –Newham LB –Brent LB NHS registration data is used extensively by ONS for the measurement of internal migration. NHSCR/PRDS now being evaluated for its potential as a proxy measure of international migration.

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34 LPD Analysis David Ewens at GLA has completed an analysis of ethnicity and attainment in Greater London using the LPD. Linking successive annual datasets (2002 and 2003 in this case) it is possible to identify ‘new entrants’ to the education system The study has illustrated pupil mobility grouped by ethnicity and by whether or not their mother tongue is English.

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36 Source: National Insurance Number Allocations to Overseas Nationals Entering the UK DWP Information Directorate © Crown Copyright 2005 NINo Analysis

37 Home Office Data

38 Home Office Data HO statistics are for non-EEA only. UK Address is recorded on each Landing Card but is not captured.

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40 WRS statistics Source: Accession Monitoring Report May-Sept 2004 Home Office, DWP, HMRC, ODPM © Crown Copyright 2004

41 Summary Increasing need to better understand (measure) the complex process of international migration. –European scale –National level –Sub-nationally !! Are we making best use of the data that is available?

42 New Migrant Databank (NMD) An Analytical Framework?

43 Single View Concepts, definitions, time-periods, data quality, sample size, frequency of collection all pose problems for accurately measuring new migrants. However, a variety of sources of data exist, providing a complementary view of new migrants.

44 Recommendations The New Migrant Databank (NMD) should be established, together with an appropriate ‘reporting’ framework, to create a unique and integrated source of intelligence on new migrant activity. Given its long-term value to users across regions, and the data inputs it would need, construction of the NMD should be planned as a partnership venture to include ONS.

45 Recommendations Using the NMD, comparative analysis of alternative datasets should be completed at a detailed geographical level and for specific migrant demographic profiles. Integration of new data into the migrant estimation process when robustness and reliability are assured. –Distributions –Counts –Profiles Running in parallel with ONS NSQR programme

46 Recommendations Relative levels of short-term and long-term migration should be explored through partnership work on the NMD, using statistics from the IPS and LFS.

47 Recommendations To improve the robustness of statistics derived from TIM, the LFS should be used (in preference to the IPS) to derive revised estimates of new migrant flows for London, subject to validation against the NHSCR. Age-sex profiles should be applied to these new estimates using migrant profiles from the NHSCR/LFS, validated against the Census..

48 New Migrant Databank

49 End