Auto Evolution in the 21 st Century Ken Welles, May 19,

12 year old CRV – 25 MPG Full Disclosure – What I Drive 10 year old F150 – 15 MPG 10 year old F150 With 5 th wheel – 10 MPG 20 year old MF-50 – 50 yd 3 /G

Auto Evolution in the 21 st Century CAUSED BY Fuel Prices Gasoline, alternate fuels Government MPG Standards, Tax Credits Economy Boom-SUV, Bust-Used Cars

Government not predictable Economy not predictable Gasoline Prices Long Term Increase

Fuel Prices will be the Major Influence Peak Oil Future gasoline output will decline Competition For Fuel China, India “Global Warming” CO 2 taxes

SOLID Wood Chips, Charcoal, Sawdust LIQUID Diesel, Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol, Biodiesel, Syn-Fuel GAS Hydrogen, Methane (NG), Ethane, Propane, Butane ELECTRIC Batteries – Lead-Acid, NiCad, NiMH, Lithium Nuclear Fission, Fusion, Heat Engine Mixture Hybrid, Flex Fuel What Will Future Fuel Be?

SOLID Wood Chips, Charcoal, Sawdust LIQUID Diesel, Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol, Biodiesel, Syn-Fuel GAS Hydrogen, Methane (NG), Ethane, Propane, Butane ELECTRIC Batteries – Lead-Acid, NiCad, MiMH, Lithium Nuclear Fission, Fusion, Heat Engine Mixture Hybrid, Flex Fuel What Will Future Fuel Be?

Choices for this talk IC-engine only Gasoline Flex Fuel Diesel NG (Honda Civic GX) Hybrids Mild (Chevy Malibu) Full (Prius) Plug in (Prius+) EV (Electric Vehicle) On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster) H 2 Fuel Cell Vehicle (Addendum) Rapid Transit Flying Cars Teleportation

Choices for this talk IC-engine only Gasoline Diesel Flex Fuel NG (Honda Civic GX) Hybrids Mild (Chevy Malibu) Full (Prius) Plug in (Prius+) EV (Electric Vehicle) On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Wired magazine “Laugh at High Gas Prices With a 235-MPG VW” What can you do with a “normal” car The car has anti-lock brakes, stability control and airbags. $30-40k.

What is the cheap solution? Kia Rio $11, mpg Smart ForTwo $11, mpg Toyota Yaris $12, mpg.Hyundai Accent $13, mpg

Toyota Prius $22, mpg.

Compare to $12, mpg car. $4.00 gasoline, About 225,000 miles to the break even point $6.00 gasoline, About 150,000 miles to the break even point $8.00 gasoline, About 110,000 miles to the break even point Toyota Prius $22, mpg.

How do we compare costs of Gasoline Cars vs. Other Fuels? GGE Gallon of Gasoline Equivalent

1 gallon gasoline = 115,000 BTU = 33 kWh (6.1 lbs)1 gge 0.88 gallon diesel (6.0 lbs)1 gge 1.50 gallon ethanol (9.9 lbs)1 gge 127 cubic feet (STP) natural gas (5.7 lbs, 950 gal)1 gge 9 kWh available electricity (130 lbs, 8 gal) *1 gge 178 cubic feet (STP) Hydrogen (1 lb, 1330 gal) **1 gge GGE – Gallon of Gasoline Equivalence When used in a car * Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg petrol car 1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh ** with 60% eff. Fuel cell, (357 cubic feet for internal combustion)

mpg ~ 400 miles range 13.2 gallons gasoline ~ 100 lbs 20 gallons ethanol ~ 150 lbs 55 gallons compressed NG ~ 250 lbs (mostly tank weight) gallons Lithium Batteries ~ 2,000 lbs 250 gallons Prius Batteries ~ 14,000 lbs

What is a gallon of gasoline worth to me? Going for a Sunday drive to nowhere $2.00 Running Errands at random$3.00 Driving to work$4.00 Mowing my lawn$10.00 Using my chain saw and lumber mill$20.00 Running my generator in power outage$25-$50 (Summer-Winter) We will NEVER run out of gasoline!!! (We WILL run out of cheap gasoline)

Choices for this talk IC-engine only Gasoline Diesel Flex Fuel NG (Honda Civic GX) Hybrids Mild (Chevy Malibu) Full (Prius) Plug in (Prius+) EV (Electric Vehicle) On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

EPA standards mandate a series of Tiers for diesel emissions We are now in Tier 3, Tier 4 is coming To meet these standards, exhaust systems are VERY expensive You have an extra tank of urea solution for injection into exhaust Worth it for big trucks Costs too much for cars Gasoline is more cost effective in reducing petroleum use Diesel: Good for trucks. Bad for cars

Choices for this talk IC-engine only Gasoline Diesel Flex Fuel NG (Honda Civic GX) Hybrids Mild (Chevy Malibu) Full (Prius) Plug in (Prius+) EV (Electric Vehicle) On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Ethanol-Gasoline Mixtures Corn Ethanol – Bad Idea Inefficient, and competing for food Only useful now because of subsidies, mandates Cellulosic Ethanol/Methanol – Poor Idea Made from plant waste, switch grass, corn stover Competes for arable land OK for micro-business, self-sustenance

LIQUID SYN-FUEL Energy source Coal Natural Gas Bio-waste Engineered Algae Energy crops If done cheaply, could displace all NG cars Process Fischer-Tropsch Transesterification Pyrolysis Fermentation

Choices for this talk IC-engine only Gasoline Diesel Flex Fuel NG (Honda Civic GX) Hybrids Mild (Chevy Malibu) Full (Prius) Plug in (Prius+) EV (Electric Vehicle) On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Honda Civic ModelGX (Natural Gas)DX (Gasoline)Natural Gas Car is: Base Price$25,190$17,765$7,425 (42%) more Engine Type In-Line 4-Cylinder Engine Block/Cylinder Head Aluminum-Alloy Displacement (cc) 1799 rpm (SAE net) ?81% Horsepower Torque rpm) ?85% Torque Bore and Stroke (mm) 81 x 87.3 Compression Ratio 12.5:110.5:1 CARB Emissions Rating AT-PZEV [1] ULEV-2Much Lower Emissions 5-Speed Auto Transmission StandardAvailable Front Disc/Rear Drum (in.) 11.1 / / 7.9 Cargo Volume (cu. ft.) % trunk space Curb Weight (lbs) lbs (8%) heavier Weight Distribution (%, f/r) 59 / 4161 / 39~70 lbs engine, ~150 lbs tank 5-Spd Auto (City/Hway/Comb) 24 / 36 / 28 (GGE*)25 / 36 / 29 About the same mileage Fuel (gal.) psi13.2 Combined Range 90% of tank202 miles345 miles59% range (143 miles less) Required Fuel CNGRegular Unleaded NG – Gas Car Comparison: Honda Civic Honda websites of Civic DX and Civic Gx

NG – Gas Car Comparison: Honda Civic Going from a Gasoline car to a NG car you have: 40% higher price 40% less range per fill-up 50% less trunk room 20% less acceleration < $2.00 / gallon gasoline equivalent 200,000 miles payback at $3/gal gasoline 100,000 miles payback at $4/gal gasoline Honda websites of Civic DX and Civic Gx

Clean Energy - NYS DOT Chrisler Avenue Exit Rotterdam, NY Phone: Fuel: Compressed Natural Gas Access: Public - card key at all times Office of General Services - NYS McCarty Avenue and Route 9 W Southern Boulevard Albany, NY Phone: Fuel: Compressed Natural Gas Access: Public - card key at all times Can I pump Natural Gas Locally? Yes! Albany & Schenectady

The pump is a (minor) engineering problem Phill used 10¢ electricity / GGE Phill went bankrupt Phill ~$1,000 / year to maintain ~ $0.50-$1.00 / GGE Can I pump Natural Gas at home? Maybe…

Assume 100% NG vehicle penetration NG refueled from the home line, 8pm – 6am, Assume 33 miles average use per day (12,000 mi/yr), 4.5 ft 3 / mile About 150 ft 3 NG / day for the car Average US house = 260 ft 3 NG / day Yes - we add % NG volume Will Home Refueling of NG cars Require a new pipelines?

SynFuel No new pipelines Use existing Gas Stations No change to cars Can also use Coal, Biomass Many $$$ SynFuel plants NG for SynFuel or NG cars? NG Cars No SynFuel plants Overnight Home Refueling Cars cost more Cars don’t go as far Need new gas lines everywhere Refit 100,000 gas stations My Opinion: SynFuels will win

Choices for this talk IC-engine only Gasoline Flex Fuel Diesel NG (Honda Civic GX) Hybrids Mild (Chevy Malibu) Full (Prius) Plug in (Prius+) EV (Electric Vehicle) On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

HYBRIDS Mild (Chevy Malibu) Engine off at stop lights Start engine and car Store about 1-2 brake cycles Full (Prius) Drive electric only > 1 mile Electric only at low speed Store long downhill energy Plug in (Prius+) Drive electric only > 20 miles Use IC engine to extend range indefinitely IC engine drives the wheels directly

50 mpg, well engineered, affordable This is a young/mature technology This uses a 110 lb NiMH battery Replacement cost $3, Volts, 1.3 kWh 1.1 pint gasoline, 3-4 miles travel (100% depletion) All energy used is from Gasoline Full Hybrids - Prius

To go 40 miles (PHEV40), need ~15x energy storage 1600 lb battery costing $25,000 - $35,000 Therefore PHEV requires a different kind of battery That battery is the Lithium Ion battery PRIUS  PHEV, using same battery

Choices for this talk IC-engine only Gasoline Flex Fuel Diesel NG (Honda Civic GX) Hybrids Mild (Chevy Malibu) Full (Prius) Plug in (Prius+) EV (Electric Vehicle) On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Like a Hybrid with a BIG battery Plug it in overnight to charge the battery Run as far as you can on battery Then start using the gasoline engine as a normal hybrid PHEV20 can go 20 miles on electric only Infinite gas mileage on days you go less than 20 miles If you go 40 miles every day, you get 100 mpg Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Basics

Your gas mileage gets better with bigger batteries But Your electric bill goes up as gasoline costs go down PHEV has enormous potential gas mileage

PHEV 40, with 90% of charging done 8pm – 6am, 100% penetration At 300 Wh / mile, 12 kWh of energy for a full recharge 1.2 kW charge rate required, well below the 2-3 kW peak power demand per house. Efficient use of off peak power, wind power Inefficient use of solar power Raises the base load, possibly lowers the peaking load. NO not if we charge at night Will Home Recharging of PHEVs Require a new powerlines?

RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Electricity Cost Compare to 30 mpg car Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile kWh / mile = 9 kWh 1 Gallon Gasoline = 9 kWh 9 $0.15 = $1.35 $1.35 electricity = 1 Gallon Gasoline

RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Hidden Cost Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg 1 gallon petrol = 9 $0.15 = $1.35 / gge cost of electricity Battery Life: 400–1000 cycles (think laptop batteries) New batteries ~$1 / Wh A 1 kWh battery is about $1,000 Battery lasts 1,000 cycles, that’s $1 / kWh stored 1 gallon petrol = 9kWh stored 9 kWh * $1 / kWh stored = $9.00 / gge wear on the battery!!!!! Our cost = $1.35 electricity + $9.00 wear = $10.35 Today’s batteries cost us $10.35 / GGE

RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Hidden Cost Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg 1 gallon petrol = 9 $0.15 = $1.35 / gge cost of electricity Battery Life: 400–1000 deep discharges (think laptop batteries) New batteries ~$1 / Wh. A 1 kWh battery is about $1,000 If the battery lasts 1,000 cycles, that’s $1 / kWh stored 1 gallon petrol = $1.00 = $9.00 / gge wear on the battery!!!!! Our cost = $10.35 / gge Cut battery cost by 50% Increase battery life by 5 Total cost becomes $2.35 / GGE What do we need?

Comparison of cars, hybrids and PHEVs Distance Between Charges (miles) Prius 28 MPG car

Comparison of cars, hybrids and PHEVs

Lifetime cost per mile comparisons Ibid.

Choices for this talk IC-engine only Gasoline Flex Fuel Diesel NG (Honda Civic GX) Hybrids Mild (Chevy Malibu) Full (Prius) Plug in (Prius+) EV (Electric Vehicle) On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Prius+ generator motor engine combiner wheels electronicsbattery generator motor engine wheels electronicsbattery Chevy Volt

Chevy plans on a 70 hp engine What is the smallest engine that would work? How much engine does the Volt need? 50 hp allows indefinite climb on a 6% grade at 68 mph 70 hp

The Volt doesn’t need a rotating engine Linear Generators Microturbines

The Volt doesn’t need a rotating engine Linear Generators Microturbines

Choices for this talk IC-engine only Gasoline Flex Fuel Diesel NG (Honda Civic GX) Hybrids Mild (Chevy Malibu) Full (Prius) Plug in (Prius+) EV (Electric Vehicle) On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt) Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

OK to run short errands No good for long distances Refill gasoline or NG tanks in ~5 minutes Recharge batteries in 30 minutes to many hours Fast charging damages batteries Battery Only Cars

Not likely: Diesel Mild Hybrids Battery Only Fuel Cell CONCLUSIONS

Slightly reduced Oil supply Slightly increased NG supply Small Gasoline Cars Hybrids PHEV CONCLUSIONS

Greatly reduced Oil supply Greatly increased NG supply Natural Gas cars PHEV Synfuel CONCLUSIONS

Greatly reduced Oil supply Greatly increased Electric supply PHEV Synfuel CONCLUSIONS

Economic Depression Small Gasoline Cars CONCLUSIONS

Big CO 2 Taxes Small gasoline cars PHEV Biofuels CONCLUSIONS

Poor Lithium Battery Progress Hybrids Natural Gas Cars CONCLUSIONS

Slow decrease in Oil supply Slow increase in NG supply Coal power  NG power CO 2 Sequestration Fails Anthro Climate Change Accepted Lithium Battery Progress Economic NG Synfuels Hybrids PHEV Synfuels replace Corn Ethanol My Best Guess next 20 years

Big decrease in Oil supply Big increase in NG supply Widespread SynFuels/BioFuels Big CO 2 taxes PHEV like VOLT My Best Guess years

Thanks for Listening

COMIC RELIEF (maybe)

Addendum: How to Solar Power a Car?

Where do you get the fuel? Reforming natural gas Electrolysis of water NO CO2 Addendum Why are H 2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?

Where do you get the fuel? Reforming natural gas But this throws energy away. Use the same natural gas in a NG Hybrid Even a NG regular car uses less NG per mile and costs much less Addendum Why are H 2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?

Where do you get the fuel? Reforming natural gas Electrolysis of water Very energy inefficient. Electrolysis is ~60% percent efficient in volume Fuel Cell is 60% efficient in H2  e- Overall 36% conversion efficiency Batteries are 80%-90% efficient use of e- Addendum Why are H 2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?

Where do you get the fuel? Reforming natural gas Electrolysis of water NO CO2 Only true if you make H2 by electrolysis. Only true if electricity comes from nuclear, wind, solar, etc. For the next 50 years, use any new green electricity to close coal plants. After you close all the coal plants, close all the NG power plants. Addendum Why are H 2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?

Requires 3 major breakthroughs & big, new infrastructure 1)Develop a cheap, efficient, small H2 storage method (metal hydride?) 2)Invent a solar powered H2 source (engineered algae?) 3)Elimination of CO2 as a problem for the world (H2 power plants?) 4)Deploy an H2 infrastructure (H2 is difficult to pipeline) 3 major breakthroughs is unlikely. Addendum What would make fuel cells a contender?

Addendum - Solid Fuel for Cars? Woodgas – Steam reform pyrolizing wood, Burn the H2, CO gas in your modified gasoline engine

DARPA project – EATR: Energetically Autonomous Tactical Robot Addendum - Solid Fuel for Cars?

Energy: From Where, To What