Crete, September 2013 GOSEM SS Prof. Panebianco Stefania University of Catania

The Arab Spring: between tradition and technology Sidi Bouzid (Tunisia), 17 December 2010  upheavals in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Siria, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Mauritania. What is new compared to previous popular mobilization in Arab Countries?  There is no ideological nor religious inspiration;  Large use of media (esp. cable TV) and technology (mobile phones, web, blogs);  Active involvement of middle classes and educated people. Protest tools: twitter, facebook, Al Jazeera, Al Arabja …..

Democracy and the Mediterranean: still an ‘Arab exceptionalism’? The debate of the last decades raised the following questions: Are MENA countries ‘unfit’ to experience democratic change? Is there anything inherently undemocratic about Islam? The literature: > (Huntington, 1991); There is an Arab democratic gap (Lewitsky and Way, 2002; Diamond, 2010); Despite the liberalization processes which had occurred in the early 1990s, an authoritarian turn had established liberalized autocracies (O’Donnell & Schmitter, 1986; Brumberg, 2002); … where does the Arab Spring fit in the debate?

The Arab Spring and democracy Compatibility or compliance to a Western model? - Democracy as (Western) values - Democracy as procedures Can we talk about a “Muslim Democracy”? Olivier Roy: Secularism, Islam and the West

The origins of a ‘Muslim Democracy’ Early 1990s Military withdraw from power (es.Turkey) Development of middle classes and private economic actors Establishment of multi-party systems and electoral competition

A wave of ‘Muslim Democracy’? Popular requests during the Arab Spring Popular request for regime change Support to liberal practices Freedoms and human dignity as universal values

Public opinion surveys in Arab Mediterranean countries ‘Westernization’Democratization They do NOT want They DO want

Defining Democracy Democracy Norms to provide legitimacy to political regimes ‘people’s power’ Europe/ North America Rule of law Common sense Word’s definition Historical origins Key concept

Rule of law Free and correct elections Respect of fundament al freedoms Government accountability Legal opposition

Towards a widespread democratization process in the Mediterranean? YESNO Different indicators need to be identified Persistence of authoritarian regimes: no contagion effect Reversed processes (Islamist regimes) POPULAR PROTESTS Coetzee: criticism to the democratic peace theory: the structure matters

The minimum requirements for democracy (Dahl 1980) universal suffrage; free, competitive, recurrent and correct elections; more than one political party; alternative information sources.

Democracy as a process: Liberalization with or without democratization Liberalization: process of partial opening of authoritarian institutions; generally it starts with the granting of individual freedoms and rights (e.g. reduction of censorship, increased autonomy of socio-economic groups, opposition is tolerated). Democratization: process of creation and stabilization of democratic institutions which leads to the end of the authoritarian regime. It includes liberalization and moves further to rant political competition and government’s accountability as a result of free and competitive elections.

Hybrid regimes: between authoritarianism and democracy HYBRID REGIMES TRADITIONAL REGIMES AUTHORITARIANISM LIBERAL DEMOCRACY

Possible Outcomes of the Arab Spri ng Democratic change No political change Authoritarian turn Persistent instability

Freedom in the World 2012

POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SINCE SPRING : Civil Liberties/Politi cal Rights Statu s 2011: Civil Liberties- Political Rights StatusChange ALGERIA 5,5 (5/6)NF5,5 (5/6)NF- EGYPT 5,0 (5/5)PF5,5 (5/6)NF  ISRAEL 1,5 (2/1)F F- JORDAN 5,5 (n.a.)NF5,5 (5/6)NF-* LEBANON 4,5 (n.a.)PF4,0 (3/5)PF  LIBYA 4,5 (5/4)PF7 (7/7)NF  MOROCCO 4,5 (n.a.)PF4,5 (4/5)PF- SYRIA 7,0 (n.a.)NF6,5 (6/7)NF- TUNISIA 3,5 (4/3)PF6 (5/7)PF  Source: Freedom House, Country Reports * Partly free from 2004 to

The ‘drivers’ to democracy 26

Actors of political change New/old political élites Military Civil society (e.g. political parties  including Islamist parties) International community: US, EU, regional powers, international organizations, NGOs) Teti: A CDA of PfDSP