East of Scotland European Partnership Commuting and migration Dundee Contemporary Arts 2nd February 2005

Chairman’s welcome and introduction Mervyn Rolfe CBE Chief Executive Dundee & Tayside Chamber of Commerce Chairman ESEP

Programme 10.30Commuting and migration patterns in the East of Scotland John Lord, Director, yellow book ltd Commentary Greg Lloyd, Director of The Geddes Institute, University of Dundee 11.30Group discussions (tea/coffee) 12.15Feedback and plenary discussion Lunch 14.00Close

Commuting and migration economic geography of the Programme area review of Census 2001 data –migration to/from the East of Scotland –growth in commuting to and from major cities –commuting patterns described and analysed area profiles posted on the website –plus a full version of this presentation –…and a short report

Economic geography jobs density employment change knowledge economy residents’ qualifications claimant count

Job density, 2002

Employment change

Tradable services and KBIs: % of total employment 2002

Tradable services & knowledge based industries: employment change

Residents’ qualifications

Claimant count rate (%)

Migration net migration working age migration in-migration from rest of UK residents born outside Scotland

Net migration (to/from UK)

Net migration working-age (to/from UK)

% of in-migration from rest of UK

% of residents born outside Scotland

Commuting commuting trends commuting flows cities and commuting who commutes? –occupation –Industry –status –personal characteristics

Increase in commuting CityInOutNet in Aberdeen+15,600 (+46%) +2,600 (+69%) +13,000 (+43%) Dundee+5,900 (+44%) +2,100 (+49%) +3,800 (+42%) Edinburgh+12,500 (+18%) +5,400 (+35%) +7,100 (+13%)

Commuting flows 2001 the programme area net flows by local authority in-commuting and out-commuting offshore employment

East of Scotland 2001 Total population2,322,224 Working-age population1,459,040 Total residents in employment1,029,549 Total workforce1,043,431 Net in-commuting from outwith region13,882

Net commuting flows

% of residents who work locally

% of workforce who live locally

% of workforce who are in-commuters

% of residents who out-commute to work

Residents working offshore

City travel to work areas Aberdeen Dundee Edinburgh Stirling

% of residents working in Aberdeen

% of residents working in Dundee

% of residents working in Edinburgh

% of residents working in Stirling

Who are the commuters? occupation industry status circumstances

Residents’ out-commuting by occupation Higher professionalRoutine occupations

Working age residents: employment share by industry and place of work AgricultureManufacturing/mining

Working age residents: employment share by industry and place of work (2) Wholesale, retailFinancial intermediation

Workforce: dependency on in-commuters Public administration and defence Real estate and business activities

Workforce: dependency on in-commuters (2) Financial servicesHotels and restaurants

Commuters are more likely to be in high wage, high skill occupations working in knowledge based sectors residents of areas close to big cities in a full time job employees male car owners

Defining roles/assessing performance Status Jobs hub Commuter zone Self- contained High performer Under achiever

Performance criteria migration trends working age population commuter flows jobs density unemployment rate resident/workplace earnings

Earnings ratios Residents : Scottish averageWorkplace : residents

East of Scotland European Partnership Commuting and migration Dundee Contemporary Arts 2nd February 2005

Commuting, Migration and City Regions: A Commentary Greg Lloyd The Geddes Institute East of Scotland European Partnership

Globalisation and global city regions globalisation is the principal driver of change cities and city regions are the emerging centres of economic competitiveness and innovation this creates agendas around urban development and governance. defined contexts – markets, growth, limited regulation

Connectivity?

European spatiality spatial planning – the new agenda for planning and management of regional development context of the global economy, competitiveness and scale normative assertions around city regions – mono-centric and poly-centric forms European Spatial Development Perspective –enhancing competitiveness –regional balance –urban-rural relations

Refreshing those bits……city regions? Partnership Agreement Framework for Economic Development Smart Successful Scotland National Planning Framework city regions

But where? Mono-centric approaches –Derek Halden Consultancy, 2002 –Experían, 2004 –David Begg and Ian Docherty,2002 Polycentric urban region –Nick Bailey and Ivan Turok, 2001 –Edward Glaeser, 2004 Research evidence

......and how? context – economic performance and scale urban morphology and place competition institutions and resources regulation and history identities and cultures

Clash of Ideas? old geography to new space –functional, formal …. or fuzzy edges? –boundaries or borderless? single government to multiple governance fixed identities or fluid imagery?

East of Scotland European Partnership Commuting and migration Dundee Contemporary Arts 2nd February 2005