1. The Rural Economy of the East of Scotland ESEP Seminar Fraserburgh Lighthouse Museum 29 September 2003

2. Presentation the ESEP labour market service defining the rural area review of economic and labour market data

3. ESEP labour market service launched January 2002 labour market information service for ESEP and its partners principal output - major annual report:  www.esep.co.uk ad hoc reports and services:  ERDF/ESF-funded community development projects  strategic sector profiles autumn seminars

4. East of Scotland Programme Area

5. Defining “rural” open land/primary products/rural landscapes higher share of employment/GDP in agriculture and primary industries fewer large firms: more self-employment and micro-businesses sparse population/distance from major centres Source: Cabinet Office

6. East of Scotland rural areas Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perth & Kinross Stirling …but that’s not the extent of it –Clackmannanshire –Fife –Lothians

7. Rural Scotland insert rural Scotland map

8. Degrees of rurality suburbia city fringe rurban commuter belt accessible countryside deep rural areas –market towns –seaside resorts –industrial towns and villages

9. Scotland: urban-rural classification insert 6-fold classification map

10. East of Scotland Objective 2/3 Programmes Priority 1 Strategic economic development –1.1 SMEs –1.2 Risk capital –1.3 Technology/knowledge transfer Priority 2 Strategic locations & sectors –2.1 Locations –2.2 Locations and sectors Priority 3 Community economic development –3.1 Community engagement and capacity building –3.2 Social infrastructure –3.3 Thematic community development Objective 3 –Measure 2.3 Rural exclusion

11. The statistics the five Council areas compared: –with each other –with the rest of the Programme area –with rural Scotland –with Scotland health warning!

12. Population change 1991-2011

14. The 10 towns: population change 1991-2001

15. Demographic change population growth in rural EoS outstrips rest of Scotland growth in the accessible countryside outstrips remote areas strong growth in: –Elgin, Inverurie, small cities decline in: –Banff, Keith, Montrose

16. Employee jobs change 1996-2001 (%)

18. Employee jobs change by type, 1996-2001(%)

19. Employee jobs change by type, 1996-2001(%)

20. Full & part time employment, working age, 2001 (%)

22. Male & female, % change in employee job numbers, 1996-2001

23. Male & female, % change in employee jobs, 1996-2001

24. Employment trends employment growth 96-01 slower in rural areas than urban –east held back by Aberdeenshire figures strong employment growth in Stirling and Perth & Kinross –mostly in the cities? growth in P/T employment in P&K and Moray –but Moray still has low P/T employment strong increase in male employment –especially in Stirling

25. Agricultural workforce, Scotland, 1982-2002

27. Fishermen employed on Scottish based vessels, 1996-2000

28. Fisheries employment by district & type, 2000

29. Agriculture and fishing long-term decline in agricultural workforce –big shift from f/t to p/t –26,000 employed in EoS –of which 46% Grampian/Moray, 25% Tayside sharp decline in Scottish fisheries employment to <7,000 –Fraserburgh top with 1,200 –Peterhead 600 –Buckie 400

30. Company base by firm size

31. Employment by firm size

32. Change in company stock by size, 1996-2001(%)

33. Employee job distribution by sector, 2001 (%)

34. Compared to Scotland, ESEP rural areas have… a higher proportion of jobs in –construction –wholesale, retail, repair –hotels and restaurants –health and social work a lower proportion of jobs in –financial services –business services

35. Employee job distribution by sector, 2001 (%)

36. Differences between rural areas P&K and Stirling have: –much less manufacturing –more wholesale/retail and hotel/rest and financial services Aberdeenshire has: –more construction and business services Moray has: –more education Angus has: –more health and social work

37. Sector performance/regional share (Scotland)

38. Sector performance/regional share (East of Scotland)

39. Sector performance/regional share (5 rural areas)

40. The shape of the East of Scotland rural economy well-represented growth sectors –personal services, education, health/social, hotel/catering, construction, wholesale/retail under-represented growth sectors –business services, financial services, transport/comm over-represented declining sectors –public admin, extractive, agriculture, fishing under-represented declining industries –manufacturing low-wage industries public sector and caring weak in tradeable services doesn’t include most agri/fishing big local variations

41. Sector performance/regional share (Scotland rural areas)

42. Change in VAT registered businesses, 1996-2001 (%)

44. Change in number of self employed, 1997-2003 (%)

45. Self employed as % of all in employment, 1997-2003

46. Employment by occupation

47. Employment by occupation, change 1996-2000 (%)

48. Employment by occupation, rural ESEP, change1996-2000 (%)

49. Occupational mix labour force composition in line with Scotland change 1996-2000 patchy, but EoS has seen: –strong growth in managerial/professional/ technician –sharp decline in craft and unskilled jobs

50. Average gross weekly wage, 1999-2002 (£/%)

52. Average earnings EoS 5 lag behind urban Scotland –no sign of gap closing earnings significantly higher in accessible countryside than remote

53. Economic activity rates, working age, 1996-2001 (%)

55. The 10 towns: economic activity rates, aged 16-74, 2001(%)

56. Economic activity activity rates in the EoS 5 higher than in urban areas –…except Stirling –local variations unemployment rates consistently low –especially in remote rural areas

57. Change in number of claimants, June 1984-03 (%)

58. Claimant count rate as proportion of working age residents, 1998-2003 (%)

59. Change in number of claimants, June 1984-03 (%)

60. Claimant count rate as proportion of working age residents, 1998-2003 (%)

61. Qualifications levels, working age, 2001(%)

62. School exam results, 2001

63. School leavers’ destinations, 2001 (%)

65. School qualifications, 2001 %S4 gaining 5+ awards at level 4 or better

66. School qualifications, 2001 %S5 gaining 3+ awards at level 6

73. Summing up on the face of it, the rural economy is less different than you might expect …there is still a divide between remote and accessible rural areas …and an east-west divide – rural and urban digging deeper, there are issues about: –industry structure –self-employment –manual jobs –low wages –high activity rates/low unemployment –rural poverty

74. Commentary Professor Mark Shucksmith Arkleton Centre for Rural Development, University of Aberdeen

75. Commentary what are the forces underlying these trends, and what will they be in future? how do these trends relate to deprivation and social exclusion? low incomes, low pay, unemployment barriers to labour market inclusion? some issues for discussion

76. Forces for change - markets globalisation of production and moves towards flexible specialisation and the new economy: how does this affect rural areas? global capital or local capital? future prosperity reflects, perhaps, –sense of regional identity and social cohesion –entrepreneurial climate –level of education –attractive cultural and natural environment

77. Conceptualising social exclusion & inclusion “exclusion is an idea which poses the right kind of questions.” (Donnison 1998) a dynamic, multi-dimensional process the “intersection of history and biography” What are the processes by which individuals or groups gain resources (economic, social, cultural & symbolic), and so are integrated into or excluded from participation in our society?

78. market processes bureaucratic (state) processes associative processes (voluntary) reciprocal processes (family & friends) Processes of exclusion & inclusion How do people become excluded? How do people gain capacity to act?

79. Market Reciprocal Associative Authority High Capacity = Agility with all systems

80. Example: young people young people crucial to sustainability of rural economies and societies: how are they placed? markets: crucial importance of labour market state: education & training; careers guidance; but also citizenship and participation voluntary sector: role in providing housing friends & family: role models; practical support

81. Workforce with low incomes of those on low incomes in rural Britain : –22% are in employment (18% low paid) –23% are self-employed (cf. 8% in urban) –13% are unemployed –41% are permanently sick (mainly men) or family carers (mainly women) or other we will consider each of these groups in turn

82. Low pay low pay is more prevalent in rural areas furthermore, low pay is also more persistent in rural areas, even after taking into account other characteristics of the workforce low pay in rural areas is associated with education levels, gender, industrial structure and with the typically small size of firm agriculture etc and tourism account for 43% of male and 46% of female low pay how to provide better-paying jobs?

83. Unemployment unemployment rates were lower in rural areas than non-rural in 1991, but by 1996 there was little difference persistent unemployment is less likely in rural areas, except in a few places. spells without work tend to be shorter evidence of hidden unemployment new jobs from within, or from outwith?

84. Self-employment higher proportion of self-employed in rural areas, and much more likely to be poor qualitative evidence that people become self-employed in rural areas because of a lack of alternatives rather than because of greater entrepreneurial spirit often it is really disguised unemployment how might self-employed people in rural areas be encouraged to grow businesses?

85. Detachment from labour markets 41% of poor people of working age in rural areas are long-term sick, family carers, etc other research has drawn attention to a substantial number of males in their 50s who expect never to work again: how might they contribute to rural society and economy? the role of women carers has been less well researched : to what extent are they making up for deficiencies of rural care services ? should this not be rewarded as ‘work’ ?

86. Barriers to labour market participation in rural areas ‘word of mouth’ and informal recruitment, and other aspects of employers’ behaviour structure of local labour markets - mismatches between jobs and skills. accessibility between home and workplace - the fundamental importance of transport the costs of participating in the labour market (car, childcare, benefits foregone, etc)

87. Childcare in rural areas most common strategies are to work only in school hours, for the spouse to look after the children (and not work, or work shifts), or for a relative to look after the children the first is more likely in rural areas, and the other two have grown since 1991 relative lack of formal childcare provision fewer use childminders, friends, neighbours need for family-friendly employers, for flexible working, and for more childcare?

88. Issues for discussion how to be a core locality with better-paid, secure, fulfilling employment? how do we respond to persistent low pay, low skills, lack of good quality jobs, detachment from labour markets, poverty in self- employment, and unemployment? transport, childcare and eldercare issues? need for demand-side measures, as well as for the current supply-side initiatives? are different measures required in rural areas?