1 American Public Opinion Toward Foreign Policy An In-Depth View of the Electorate Douglas E. Schoen Mark J. Penn July 2007

2 Overview

3 This poll is designed to provide an in depth look at how the American public sees American foreign policy.

4 Overview As we did last year, this survey seeks to look beyond traditional political polls and provide a detailed analysis of what the American people are looking for as the Iraq war seemingly winds down and as a presidential election approaches. The goal here is to provide a more nuanced and balanced view of how the American people view U.S. foreign policy than snapshot polls provide.

5 Overview The poll was conducted with a representative sample of the national electorate with 1,006 interviews conducted between June 25 th and June 27 th. The margin of sampling error for the poll is +/-2.5% overall and larger for subgroups.

6 Key Conclusions

7 Overview Many commentators have looked at American attitudes and pointed to a so-called new isolationism that has appeared in U.S. foreign policy. And while it is certainly true that the American people want renewed focus on the domestic agenda, they have by no means turned away from recognizing the need to directly confront international problems. They strongly favor a multilateral approach, but still recognize the need for unilateralism if serious problems cannot be resolved in their desired fashion.

8 Overview We call this approach “The New Pragmatism.” The New Pragmatism includes the following:

9 Overview 1) A clear sense that our current approach is failing 2) An equally clear sense that we cannot retreat from conflicts and threats that exist abroad 3) A very strong desire for bipartisanship in the formulation of American policy and an equally strong sense that it does not now exist

10 Overview 4) A renewed focus on protecting the homeland, reducing dependence on foreign oil, protecting American jobs from competition, and doing everything possible to eliminate nuclear proliferation

11 Overview 5) A strong preference for using bilateral and multilateral forums to resolve conflicts 6) At the same time demonstrating an enduring willingness to accept the need for unilateralism as a means of protecting the nation and preventing terrorism. 7) They continue to believe that the threat of terrorism is very real.

12 Overview As we will show, this approach is non- ideological and wins support from a large majority of the American people on most specific foreign policy problems.

13 Where We Stand Now

14 Where We Stand Now There is a clear sense that current policy is failing: – 67% say the country is heading in the wrong direction – 67% say that U.S. foreign policy is heading in the wrong direction

15 Where We Stand Now – 80% say U.S. relations with the world have worsened over the past five years. – 63% say those relations continue to get worse: 35% blame President Bush 19% blame Congress 17% blame other countries 12% blame Democrats

16 Where We Stand Now Less than a third of Americans approve of President Bush’s job performance.

17 Where We Stand Now The top issues: – 67% indicate the most significant foreign policy problem facing the U.S. is Iraq – 34% suggest improving U.S. relations around the world is the second most significant challenge – 33% maintain that fighting terror at home and abroad is the third most significant foreign policy challenge

18 Where We Stand Now Democrats are more likely than Republicans to focus on improving U.S. relations around the world while Republicans focus more on fighting terror. Voters of all parties agree that Iraq presents the major challenge.

19 Where We Stand Now Americans think that the greatest success of the Bush Administration is fighting the war on terror.

20 Where We Stand Now Voters say the greatest failure of the Bush Administration is the Iraq war.

21 Where We Stand Now The Result: – 82% say people in other countries view the United States unfavorably – 71% say people in other countries now view the American people unfavorably

22 What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World?

23 What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World?

24 What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World? Importance of Bipartisanship Parties disagree on most issues and hardly ever work together. Agree 70% Disagree 30% Parties generally work together despite disagreements and can reach a consensus on foreign policy problems. 30%70%

25 What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World? What Voters are SeekingAgree Achieve bipartisan consensus on foreign policy 85% Parties have different views and should fight for what each thinks is right 15%

26 What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World? How Important is Bipartisanship? Very Important55% Somewhat Important37% Not Important9% Over half of voters think bipartisanship is very important.

27 Bipartisanship American people do not believe we can achieve bipartisan policy on Iraq and immigration reform. Can Bipartisanship be Achieved? YesNo Iraq29%71% Immigration Reform42%58%

28 Bipartisanship Can Bipartisanship be Achieved?YesNo Protecting U.S. Jobs from Outsourcing47%53% Maintaining U.S. Superpower Status48%52% Reducing Foreign Oil Dependence49%51% Fighting Terrorism50% Protecting Troops and Providing Them with Adequate Resources 50% Promoting Arab/Israeli Peace54%46% Promoting Democracy55%45% Fighting Global Warming and Climate Change55%45% On other key issues, American people are evenly divided on whether bipartisanship can be achieved.

29 Bipartisanship Can Bipartisanship be Achieved?YesNo Preventing Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction 57%43% Defending Human Rights60%40% Ending Darfur Genocide62%38% Reducing Spread of AIDS74%26% Reducing Spread of Malaria/TB78%22% Only on a few less controversial issues do American people believe bipartisanship can be achieved.

30 Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy

31 Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy Top Tier Issues Protecting the U.S. from terrorism 66% Reducing energy and foreign oil dependence 60% Ending the war in Iraq 57% Protecting U.S. jobs from outsourcing 51% Uprooting, jailing and if necessary, killing terrorist leaders 49% Preventing N. Korea/Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons 47% Strengthening alliances with allies and building new alliances 45% Preventing spread of weapons of mass destruction 45%

32 Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy Second Tier Issues Maintaining U.S. position as preeminent military superpower 38% Enacting immigration reform38% Finding Bin Laden37% Fighting global warming36%

33 Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy Third Tier Issues Humanitarian crises/stopping genocide30% Reducing spread of AIDS29% Ending genocide Darfur26% Fighting spread of TB/Malaria24% Fighting global poverty19% Promoting and defending human rights17% Promoting democracy17%

34 Threats to the United States

35 Threats to the United States Top Tier Threats Terrorist organizations – Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda 53% Iran’s effort to build a nuclear weapon41% Iran aiding Iraqi insurgents39% Global warming/climate change36% Americans believe the largest threat facing the U.S. is terrorist organizations.

36 Threats to the United States Second Tier Threats Cyber war and cyber terror31% Narcotics/international organized crime29% Israel conflict with neighbors28% China’s emergence as a world power27% North Korea26%

37 Threats to the United States Third Tier Threats Transitions occurring in Russia and China20% Tuberculosis in the Third World20% Growing economies of China and India19% Malaria14% Strains with Latin American nations14%

38 The Role of the United States

39 The Role of the United States 83% of Americans believe that the U.S. should share a leadership role with allies and other countries in the world.

40 The Role of the United States Most Americans say the U.S.’s role is equally as important as it was ten years ago.

41 The Role of the United States 63% of voters think that the U.S. should focus on domestic problems rather than world affairs. Active Foreign Role vs. Emphasis on Domestic Affairs As a dominant superpower, the U.S. should be the preeminent world leader in solving international problems. 37% We have enough domestic problems. The U.S. should take care of U.S. problems and stay out of world affairs. 63%

42 The Role of the United States But despite this seeming focus on domestic affairs, the American people recognize that we cannot retreat from confronting international problems in a unilateral framework if necessary.

43 The Role of the United States While the American people support bipartisanship and a collective, multilateral approach to foreign policy as well as a renewed concentration on domestic affairs, they have not abandoned unilateralism if it proves necessary. AgreeDisagree If a grave threat to the U.S. is posed and other nations do not provide military or diplomatic assistance, a unilateral approach is appropriate. 71%29%

44 The Role of the United States Despite apparent dovishness generally, in specific cases, Americans will support military preemption and war. AgreeDisagree Support preemptive war and military action if necessary to prevent terrorism, before any attacks have been launched 64%36% Democrats45%55% Republicans87%14% Independents59%41%

45 The Role of the United States Almost three quarters of the public endorses the use of force to prevent an attack on America.

46 The Role of the United States Use of forces is also justified when our allies have been: – directly attacked (74%) – when an attack on our allies is imminent (61%) – when an attack on our allies is possible (53%)

47 The Role of the United States 67% say use of force is also justified to prevent nuclear war. 59% say use of force is also justified to end genocide or mass killings.

48 The Role of the United States To protect oil reserves around the world, use of force is: Justified52% Not justified15% Sometimes justified 33%

49 The Role of the United States Americans are almost evenly divided on continued military engagement in the Middle East and North Korea: – 47% believe our military should remain engaged – 53% believe the U.S. should pull back from these theatres

50 The Role of the United States Democrats support a pullback by a 60%-40% margin while Republicans oppose a pullback by about the same margin. Independents divide as the overall population does.

51 The Role of the United States Americans are also evenly divided on whether there should be diplomatic relations with countries like Iran and Syria that support terrorism: – 50% believe there should be no diplomatic relations – 50% support relations

52 The Role of the United States Once again, Democrats support relations by about a 60%-40% margin, and Republicans oppose by about the same amount. Independents are evenly divided.

53 Specific Foreign Policy Issues

54 Specific Foreign Policy Issues Most voters are pessimistic about the war in Iraq:

55 Specific Foreign Policy Issues They believe we will fail in Iraq.

56 Specific Foreign Policy Issues 60% of Americans support at least most or all troops being withdrawn from Iraq: Troops in IraqAgree Increase troop level14% Keep about same level26% Pull most of the troops out29% Withdraw all troops31%

57 Specific Foreign Policy Issues Despite the desire to remove troops, over half of Americans support continued funding. Funding the War in IraqContinue Funding Cut off Funding Overall54%46% Democrats34%66% Republicans76%24% Independents54%46%

58 Specific Foreign Policy Issues 56% believe that the Iraq War is distracting us from the war on terror; 46% believe it is an essential part. 67% believe that the Iraq War is creating, rather than eliminating, terrorists.

59 Specific Foreign Policy Issues Most Americans see Iran as a long term threat to the U.S.

60 Specific Foreign Policy Issues Overall, 46% say the Bush Administration has not done enough to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

61 Specific Foreign Policy Issues 72% of Americans prefer diplomacy to pressure with Iran, but if diplomacy does not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, 57% favor military action.

62 Specific Foreign Policy Issues 64% of voters would favor air strikes against military and suspected nuclear sites in Iran if diplomacy fails. But 65% of voters oppose sending U.S. troops into Iran to take control of the country. And 62% of voters oppose the assassination of President Ahmadinejad.

63 Specific Foreign Policy Issues Most think the U.S. occupation of Iraq makes Iran more likely to develop nuclear weapons: – 63% say more likely – 21% say less likely – 37% say the occupation has no impact

64 Specific Foreign Policy Issues Close to two thirds of Americans believe that North Korea poses a long term threat to the U.S.

65 Specific Foreign Policy Issues 66% believe that a nuclear crisis in North Korea can be resolved with diplomacy instead of military force. 53% favor military action if diplomacy in North Korea does not work.

66 Specific Foreign Policy Issues Russia is narrowly seen as an ally of the U.S., and Americans oppose a missile shield in Europe. Russia Ally53% Enemy47% Missile Shield in Europe Support shield, despite Russian objections 43% Oppose shield, will amplify Russian tensions 57%

67 Specific Foreign Policy Issues The American people oppose the U.S. leading a new peace initiative in the Middle East but want U.S. involvement.

68 Specific Foreign Policy Issues Almost half of voters do not want the U.S. to be involved in the Middle East conflict between Hamas and Fatah.

69 Specific Foreign Policy Issues In general, most Americans do not think the U.S. should be involved in the Middle East, as it makes the situation worse and creates more anti- Americanism and terror. General U.S. Role in Middle East Support democratization to reduce Islamic Fundamentalism 37% U.S. should not be involved in the Middle East 63%

70 United Nations

71 United Nations 60% believe that the U.N. should have more power and authority. U.N. Power and Authority More60% Less40%

72 United Nations However, only 25% rate the job the U.N. has done in solving international problems positively. U.N. Performance in Solving International Problems Positive ratings25% Negative ratings75%

73 United Nations General U.S. Role in Middle East The U.S. should be more willing to make decisions and work within the U.N. even if it means compromising on policy. 67% The U.S. should not work with the U.N. if it means sacrificing some U.S. interests. 33%