Current Trends of Change in the Population of Texas Karl Eschbach, Ph.D. State Demographer of Texas Director, Texas State Data Center University of Texas at San Antonio TASSCC State of the State 2008 December 11, 2008 Austin, Texas

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Iowa Population 2007 = 2,988,046

Texas ,535 =

Fastest Growing States, State 2000 Population* 2007 Population* Numerical Change Percent Change Texas20,851,82023,904,3803,052, California33,871,64836,553,2152,681, Florida15,982,37818,251,2432,268, Georgia8,186,4539,544,7501,358, Arizona5,130,6326,338,7551,208, North Carolina8,049,3139,061,0321,011, Virginia7,078,5157,712,091633, Washington5,894,1216,468,424574, Nevada1,998,2572,565,382567, Colorado4,301,2614,861,515560, *Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for Source:Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio

Percent Change Due to Year*Population Numerical Change Natural Increase Net Migration Percent Change Natural Increase Net Migration 19507,711, ,579,6771,868,4831,754,652113, ,196,7301,617,0531,402,683214, ,229,1913,032,4611,260,7941,771, ,986,5102,757,3191,815,670941, ,851,8203,865,3101,919,2811,946, ,904,3803,052,5601,635,0151,417, *All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2007 is for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Source:Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas,

Population Change by Components of Change in the State, and State of Texas Numerical Change3,865,485 Natural Increase1,922,044 Domestic Migration1,166,570 International Migration776, Numerical Change3,052,560 Natural Increase1,635,015 Domestic Migration574,950 International Migration842,595

Percentage of Texas Population Growth Attributable to Migration, Observed and Projected SourcePeriodAllHispanic Observed, Census Estimates2000 to %- Projected, Scenario 2000 to to % 77.0% 56.0% 73.2%

Source: American Community Survey Microdata, 2007 Nativity of Texas Children Under 5 Years Old in Relation to Mother’s Nativity

Annual Net Internal and International Migration to Texas, July 1 to July 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates

Population Growth in Texas, Source: 2006 Texas State Data Center Projections.

County Big Five Metros6,235,1907,602,9139,270,90710,588,65916,859,109 Suburban to Big Five1,670,6782,407,6883,567,5104,773,31515,804,522 Border Metros1,072,1131,368,5141,777,4292,065,5453,571,423 All Other Metros2,754,6332,985,4923,328,7023,499,4653,970,135 All Non-Metro2,496,5772,621,9032,907,2722,977,3963,376,739 Total14,229,19116,986,51020,851,82023,904,38043,581,928 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Counts; Census Bureau Estimates; State Data Center Migration Scenario Projection Population Growth for Texas, ( Migration Scenario)

Components of Change for Texas, 2000 to 2007 County Population Births- Deaths Migration ChangeForeignDomestic Big Five Metros9,270,90710,588,6591,317,752851,550574, ,602 Suburban to Big Five3,567,5104,773,3151,205,805284,62792,482837,743 Border Metros1,777,4292,065,545288,116253,40692,240-49,513 All Other Metros3,328,7023,499,465170,763167,43037,393-21,751 All Non-Metro2,907,2722,977,39670,12478,00246,148-41,799 Total20,851,82023,904,3803,052,5601,635,015842,595582,078 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2007)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission (Employment) U.S. Bureau of the Census (Population). Estimates are for July 1 of each year. Population and Employment Change in Texas after 2000 County – 2007 JobsPopulationJobsPopulation Big Five Metros 360,408 1,274, %13.68% Suburban to Big Five434,5711,187, %28.41% Border Metros 112, , %21.13% All Other Metros 143, , %4.76% All Non-Metro 75,554 86, %2.80% Total 1,127,111 2,955, %14.11%

Percent Change in Population and Job Growth in Texas,

Changes in Geographic Distribution in Texas

Internal In-Migration, 2000 to 2007, as a Percent of 2000 Population

Internal Out-Migration, 2000 to 2007, as a Percent of 2000 Population

Recent International Immigration as a Percent of 2007 Population

Percent Growth

Percent Growth

Percent Growth

Projected % Growth

Historical Population Increase for Core-Based Areas in Texas, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Population Counts

Projected Population Increase for Core-Based Areas in Texas, (Scenario 00-04)

Changes in Age Structure

Age-Sex Structure of Texas, 2007 and Projected 2040 (Scenario ) Source: Texas State Data Center Estimates and Projections

Texas Population by Age, 2000 & 2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2007)

Texas Children by Age, 2000 and 2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2007)

Percent Change in Enrollment in Texas,

Numeric Change in Enrollment in Texas,

Changes in Ethnicity

Ethnicity & Immigrant Status- State of Texas, 2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2007 American Community Survey Microdata File

Immigrant Status by Age for Hispanics in Texas, 2007

% of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, , , , and * Sources: U.S. Census Counts, and State Data Center Projections, 0.5 Scenario

When do Hispanics pass Anglos in Texas? When do Hispanics become a majority in Texas? Migration Scenario Pass Anglos ? Absolute Majority? No Migration /2 of Observed Estimated Source: Texas State Data Center Projections

Projected Ethnic Change in the State of Texas, (Scenario )

Percentage of Texas Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census of Population

Percentage of Texas Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center, Projection Scenario

Workforce Renewal in Texas

Educational Attainment (%) of Adults 25-64, Texas vs. Rest of the US Source: American Community Survey 2007 Microdata File

Baby Boomers in Texas Workforce 4.3 million Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964) in Texas workforce in ,000 born before 1946 Total workforce= 11.5 million Persons born before 1964 are 43% of workforce, and 53% of college graduates in the workforce

Educational Attainment of Baby Boomers in the Texas Workforce vs. Parents of Texas Children Percentage

Ratio of over-represented and under-represented occupations: Parents of Texas children vs. Boomers in Civilian Workforce Source: American Community Survey 2006 Microdata File

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer Karl Eschbach, Ph.D. Nazrul Hoque, Ph.D. Jeff Jordan, Ph.D. Beverly Pecotte (State Data Center, San Antonio) Sheila Dos Santos-Dierking (Office of the State Demographer, Austin) Phone 210 – 458 – 6536 (San Antonio) Phone 512 – 463 – 8390 (Austin) Website txsdc.utsa.edu