EUROMED SOLAR WORKSHOP on EU-MENA COOPERATION on Solar Power Side event to the extraordinary session of EMPA Dead Sea/Jordan 2008 Gerhard Knies DESERTEC Project Promotor for The Club of Rome and co-ordinator of TREC Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS DESERTEC Clean Power from Deserts The global challenge of energy, water and climate security

Our Earth 2050 a World with 10 Billion People Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS Our Region EUMENA a community of 1.4 Billion People, rich in solar energy Our Neighbourhood with conflicts for land and water

Our Earth 2050 Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS Our Region Our Neighbourhood has a problem: mankind How can 10 Billion People live together on Earth ?

5 Essentials for our Earth with 10 Billion People in Lasting and sufficient water, food + energy 2.Stable economy 3.Stable climate 4.Limit to further population growth 5.Peace  Enough energy for “civilization”:  Enough water: by desalination and re-use  Enough food: by irrigation  Enough and stable economy  Enough wealth to stop population growth Enough energy precondition for enough water, food and wealth to avoid large scale migration and to avoid conflicts for resources.  Clean energy for stable climate New SECURITY paradigm: enough + clean energy 4Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008

1.Power per person per year: 5 (+/- 1) MWh 2006: world 3.1, OECD =8.6, USA=12.2, India=0.9, Germany=6.4, Egypt=1.2MWh 2.World pop. 2050: 10 (+/- 0.5) billion people  50,000 TWh/y, (+/- 20%) world in 2050  18,000 TWh/y in 2007 Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS How much power is “enough” ? Is there a way to provide enough + clean energy? There are several, a very powerful one is DESERTEC

Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008 More than 90% of world pop could be served by clean power from deserts ! DESERTEC = Clean Power from Deserts for the World 6 world electricity demand (18,000 TWh/y) can be produced from 300 x 300 km² =0.23% of all deserts distributed over “10 000” sites 3000 km

50,000 TWh/y => 10,000 solar GW Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS Global 10 billion people MWh/person/year Total global power demand EUMENA = 1/7 world population 50,000 TWh/y 7,000 TWh/y (14%) 50% as solar power from deserts25,000 solar TWh/y CSP Collector capacity (2,500 solar h/y) „collector GW“ 10,000 GW 1,400 GW CSP Plant capacity (7500 op. h/y) plant capacity = 2-3 x collector capacity 3,300 GW Collector deployment over 30 years world-wide EUMENA 1 GW/day 1 GW/week

Our Region - EUMENA Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 20088

deserts + technology for energy, water and climate security 9 Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008 Club of Rome White Paper 2007 ( EUMENA Study By DLR MED-CSP TRANS-CSP

Our Neighbourhood 1: Nile Delta food shortage Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS Global warming: + 7 meter - under water ! Egypts food source

Our Neighbourhood 2: GAZA Water shortage Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS

Strong over-pumping of aquifer underneath Gaza Ground Water Level (m) below Mediterranean Sea Level Pollution of Wells by Salt Water  threat to young children.  Salt intrusion ! Sea level 12Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008

Basic parameters for Solar Water &Power Source Population in 2005 Expected in 2015 In 2025In Mio From Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics Assuming 3.0% ann. Growth Assuming 2.0% ann. Growth Demand Per person and year for 3 Million inhabitants Power5 MWh 15 TWh electricity/y Water350 m³ > 1 billion m³ water/y Required solar collector size (5 km² for 1 TWh/year):  75 km² for collectors = 20% of Gaza area 13Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008

14 Clean power Desalinated water Solar Power&Water Plants in Egypt and/or Israel + Pipe and Power Lines into Gaza

Summary The whole world is vulnerable to climate change and energy scarcity. A bold emergency plan is needed. DESERTEC offers a global defense line against climate change and energy scarcity! North Africa and Middle East are extremely vulnerable to climate change: Mediterranean Solar Plan  community for energy and climate security. (like community for coal and steel 60 years ago). Co-operation of desert and technology belts (DESERTEC, Union for the Mediterranean, Mediterranean Solar Plan ) holds the promise – to stop climate change, – to achieve wealth and just development, – to resolve water and energy conflicts in the region Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS

Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS :30 – 10:40 Opening of the EUROMED SOLAR WORKSHOP Prof. Hans-Gert Poettering, President of the European Parliament, President of the Euro-Mediterranean Parliamentary Assembly (EMPA), Honorary Member of the Brussels-EU Chapter of the Club of Rome 10:40 – 10:55Chairman’s opening remarks Dr. Gerhard Knies, DESERTEC Project Director, German Association CLUB OF ROME; Coordinator, Trans- Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC) 10:55 – 11:15 Survey on solar technologies; Projects in Spain and North Africa Dr. Nikolaus Benz, Vice President, European Solar Thermal Electricity Association 11:15 – 11:20 Questions 11:20 – 11:35 Combined heat, power, desalination and district cooling with CSP; Potentials in the EU-MENA countries: the MED-CSD project J ü rgen Kern, Managing Director, kernenergien | the solar power company 11:35 – 11:40 Questions 11:40 – 12:00 Survey on solar energy potentials; Expected demand for power and water in MENA; and power export to Europe Prof. Dr. Dr.-Ing. Hans M ü ller-Steinhagen, Head of the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR) 12:00 – 12:05 Questions 12:05 – 12:20The Mediterranean Solar Plan as part of the Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) Antoine-Tristan Mocilnikar, Mission Union pour la M é diterranee, Presidence de la R é publique Fran ç aise 12:20 – 12:25 Questions 12:25 – 12:40 Bottlenecks and options for market introduction and EU-MENA cooperation Dr. Peer G ü nzel, Head of Renewables – Solar Energy Europe, HSH Nordbank AG 12:40 – 13:10 What can the EMPA(s) do? Open discussion

in MENA, including export to Europe and power for desalination in EU-25, and 17% import from MENA By adding clean power from deserts EU may win years in the fight against climate change. Power demand and supply scenario, MENA and EU Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS times more EUMENA transition mix 2050 CSP: 3,000 TWh = 1/7 world solar supply MENA EU-25

18 Resulting EUMENA-wide decarbonization compatible with climate goal  T<2° - 81% Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS CO2 emiss. 2000, MT/y CO2 emiss. 2050, MT/y Reduction 2000  2050 CO2 g/kWh EUMENA %90 Italy %80 Germany %130 where is the climate problem ?

Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008 How many people in Gaza? Population in 2005 Expected in 2015 In 2025In Mio From Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics Assuming 3.0% ann. Growth Assuming 2.0% ann. Growth 19 Area of Gaza: (9.5X40)= 380 km² ca.3 Mio inhabitants in 2030 Area required for collectors: (5X10)= 50 km²  13% of Gaza No option for Gaza!

Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008 Space for solar collectors solar power and desalination for GAZA Area of Gaza: (9.5X40)= 380 km² ca.3 Mio inhabitants in 2030 Area required for collectors: (5X10)= 50 km²  13% of Gaza No option for Gaza!  Solution: deploy collectors in nearby Egypt or Israel 20

Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008 Clean power Desalinated water Solar thermal power & desalination plants for 2-3 Million people of Gaza Mediterranean Sea Egypt Sinai Desert Solar Power&Water Plants in Egypt + Pipe and Power Lines to Gaza 21

Where is the energy/climate problem ? Resource DESERT : over-abundant Solar technology (CSP): working Heat storage technology: working transmission technology: working Capital: existing For solar GW(EUMENA, 2050): collector prod. from 0.25 GW/y  100 GW/y by 2050: +20%/y  Fast CSP collector prod. and deployment is the challenge: EUMENA: 1-2 GW/week, world wide: 1-2 GW/day = 7 X EUMENA 22Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008

Hanover Industrial Fair Statement 2008 at Energy Forum 10,000 Solar GigaWatts Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS “Based on our present knowledge and available technologies, we are convinced that CSP solar thermal collectors for about 10,000 GW, as necessary for global energy and climate security by clean power from deserts, could be produced in a world-wide effort up to Adequate policies are required. (  New DESERTEC task force will work on this) Setting up the necessary production capacities for materials and components we consider as major business opportunities.“

Slide 24 > Solar Research> Pitz-Paal Do we have enough materials for solar collectors to provide half of the worlds electricity demand in 2050? R. Pitz-Paal, DLR, April 2008 Example: Eurotrough Parabolictrough Collector Field * 50% solar electricity supply 3 m² Kollektor 1 MWh/y MaterialMaterial per mirror surface Material per GWh produced Material for 25,000 TWh/y* Annual production (year) Steel25 kg/m²75 t/(GWh/y)1875 Mio. t1100 Mio. t (2005) Glass1 m²/m²3000 m²/(GWh/y) 75 Billion m²6,1 Billion m² (2010) Cement10 kg/m²30 t/ (GWh/y)750 Mio t1,6 Billion t (1997) Copper100 g/m²300 kg/(GWh/y)7,5 Mio t12,6 Mio t/y yes

Employment/Manpower in the Solar Business W. Knothe, CEO MAN-ferrostaal, April 2008 Automotive vs. Solar How many engineers will work in the CSP Solar Business ? Worldwide CSP Business Employment [x1000] Worldwide Automotive Industry 2008 > Employment [x1000] In 2040 CSP will be a strong player in global Plant Construction Business (>20%) German Plant Construction Business employees Engineers in CSP Business 2040 > Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008

Conditions for superior CSP growth W. Knothe, CEO MAN Ferrostaal, April Consequent political support for renewable energies 2.Growing Initiatives like MASDAR in the UAE („carbon-free cities“) 3.Paradigm shift of Utility Companies and Oil Majors (change to SOLAR) 4.Long-term feed-in tariffs or quota for solar electricity production 5.Full flexibility in hybridisation 6.Capacity increase of critical components (tubes, mirrors, turbines etc.) 26Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008

Conditions for superior CSP growth W. Knothe, CEO MAN Ferrostaal, April Cost reduction by efficiency increase 8.Cost reduction of components by improved production technologies 9.Cost reduction by economies of scale (manufacturing / construction) 10.Further technology development for thermal storages 11.Expansion of European grid to allow import of electricity from MENA 12.Connecting to a North Africa transmission grid. 27Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008

DESERTEC KICK-OFF PROGRAM 1.Production of a world-wide solar radiation atlas, with proper spatial and timely resolution, for free access ( UfM!). 2.Deployment programs for CSP demonstration power plants with desalination in cogeneration, in about 10 MENA countries. (UfM) 3.Studies of supergrid connections (“supersmartgrid”) for wind and solar power from deserts to regions of high demand: 1.for EU-MENA in the frame of the Solar Plan of UfM, 2.for the Sub-Saharan region, for South Africa, Iran, India, USA, China, Australia-Pacific, and South America. Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS

DESERTEC KICK-OFF PROGRAM 4.Planning + erection of first HVDC transmission lines in several regions as infrastructure for global energy, economic and climate security. (10 years). 5.10,000 Solar Gigawatt Initiative : Studies on mass production methods for CSP collectors and deployment. (2 years) 6.Public support for private investments into facilities for collector mass production and deployment. (10 years). 7.Formation of industrial DESERTEC CONSORTIA (banks, general contractors, collector mass producers, power planters, transmission liners, power distributors, general contractors,..) Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS

The 10,000 Solar Gigawatt Initiative: Topics for a study on fast CSP collector deployment: by 2050 (fast track), or by 2040 (express track ) ? 1.demands and resources for materials 2.mass production challenges: a.Collector types: line- and point- concentrator, HTF, salt, steam,... b.Collector designs: Simplicity, modularity, automated production, c.Locations for production: Europe, NA, ME, India, USA, … 3.mass deployment challenges: a.Grids, routes and capacities, injection points to AC grids b.Identification of suitable collector sites, solar atlas c.Power plant operation in desert regions d.labour force for deployment, availability, training e.Competent players for general contractors, f.... Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS

Fast deployment: high modularity or large units ? Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS

Summary 1.Enough + Clean power for 10 billion people by 2050 possible, with clean power from deserts as the backbone (DESERTEC). 2.Materials and industrial capacities for 10,000 collector Gigawatt: ok 3.CSP more than a technology: key to a sustainable energy future. 4.10,000 Solar Gigawatt Initiative should be launched: prepare fast (express?) CSP collector production and deployment, make private sector take the lead ! 5.Phasing out of coal power plants with CO2 emissions: possible. 6.Transition to clean power = matter of global security. can and must be supported by politics (World Security Council?) 32Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008 Thank you,

World Wind Map prepared by Gregor Czisch, ISET, Kassel, 2000 Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS Several deserts have also good (trade-) wind same geophysical reason as for good sun.

Summary 1.Clean power for 10 billion people can be produced sustainably from renewable energies, with clean power from deserts as backbone. 2.The largest obstacle is the opposition by those to be phased out: coal and nuclear! – while those getting physically exhausted (oil, gas) begin to show a business interest in renewables. 3.The supply of clean energy and fresh water can and must be organized. 34Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS 2008

: 2.0 ppm y : 2.2 ppm y – 1979: 1.3 ppm y – 1989: 1.6 ppm y – 1999: 1.5 ppm y -1 Year ppm 37% above pre-industrial 280 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL, courtesy Wolfgang Lucht Present concentration is the highest during last 650,000 years and probably during the last 20 million years. Growth of ppm is growing!  fossil system: boom-and-bust Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration, Annual growth: The Fossil Fuel Death Spiral:

Is there a way to provide enough + clean energy? There are several, a very powerful one is The DESERTEC approach Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS

Solar Energy coming to Deserts : 700-fold World Energy Consumption hours sunshine deserts = 1 year world energy consumption Gerhard Knies, EMPA DS Enough + Clean Power from Deserts Can Climate Change be stopped by a global effort DESERTEC ? Conv. Oil 2 weeks sun All known+expected Reserves (BGR 2005 report) Conv. NatGas 2 weeks sun Uran. Thorium 2 weeks sun All fossil fuels, known+expected, convent. + unconvent. 40 weeks sun