1. Prospects for the African Power Sector Asami Miketa International Energy Workshop, June 19-21, 2012 Cape Town, South Africa

2. IRENA Membership Status 13. June, 2012 (96countires) (62 more countries) 2

3. Promote the use of renewable energy to meet increasing global energy needs in the context of Sustainable Development Energy security Decentralized access to energy Job creation and economic growth Negative health impacts of fossil fuels and traditional biomass Reducing GHG emissions Renewable energy sources supported: Biomass, Geothermal, Hydro, Ocean, Solar, Wind Mandate 3

4. Synthesising knowledge Potential assessment (global resource mapping) Renewable statistics and indicators Technology briefs Renewable technology cost assessment Energy planning Economic and technical assessment of renewable technology deployment in an energy system Capacity building Promotion of dialogue for renewable deployment Renewable readiness assessment Sectoral renewable deployment roadmap UN’s Sustainable Energy for All Activities 4

5. Policy database and analysis Technology development and transfer Technology standardization Patent database Project development support Education and training support Abu Dhabi Fund for Development Activities 5

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8. Challenges in African power sector Access to Electricity 8

9. Challenges in African power sector Reliability of power supply Source: JRC 9

10. Opportunities offered by renewable technologies Abundant resource potential for grid-connected system Cost-competitive off-grid system Flexible mini-gird system Power generation in 2008 620 TWh 616 kWh per person Universal access in 2035 1670 TWh 1100 kWh per person 10

11. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa Project Renewable resource potential Cost development Differentiated roles of renewable technologies for centralized and decentralized electricity supply  used as inputs for economic optimization tools SAPP model / WAPP model  inputs into priority investment decision / policy analysis 11

12. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials 620 TWh generation 150 GW capacity (2010) Geothermal 88 TWh/yr (7-15 GW) Wind* 3800 TWh/yr (1750 GW) Concentrated Solar Power* 4720 TWh/yr (2150 GW) Solar Photovoltaic* 6600 TWh/yr (2700 GW) Hydro 1850 TWh/yr (400 GW) *land availability adjusted Map: BMU, 2009 North West Central East South TWh 12

13. Wind In 2010, total installed capacity 1 GW Technical potential 1750 GW Egypt 7GW by 2020 Morocco 2GW by 2020 South Africa 8.4 GW by 2030 Investment costs Europe: 1,850-2,100 USD/kW India/China: 1,300-1,450 USD/kW Assumptions for Africa 2010: 2,000 USD/kW 2030: 1,240-1,400 USD/kW 13

14. Solar PV In 2010, total installed capacity 64 MW CSP and 7.5 MW Solar PV (utility scale) Technical potential: 2150 GW (CSP) and 2750 GW (Solar PV) World solar market Investment cost in Europe: 3,600-5,000 USD/kW in 2010 2,500 USD/kW in 2012 Assumptions for Africa: SPV 2010: 3,500 USD/kW 2030: 2,200-2,500 USD/kW 14

15. Solar CSP CSP: 2150 GW technical potential Sudan 250 MW, South Africa 100 MW DESERTEC 100 GW by 2050 (400MW CSP and 100 MW SPV in Morocco in 2012) Parabolic trough collectors USD 4600 /kW 6 hr Storage plus 2500-5200 /kW Solar tower USD 6300-7500 /kW 15 hr Storage plus 3000/kW Assumptions for Africa: CSP no storage 2010: 4500 USD/kW 2030: 2700-3000 USD/kW With storage 2010: 11000 USD 2030: 6200-7300 USD 15

16. Large Hydro 24GW installed in 2010 Technical potential: 400GW Economic potential: 200GW  DRC: Inga III (5GW), Grand Inga Dam (39GW)  Ethiopia: Millennium Hydropower project (5.25GW) 16

17. LCOE: West Africa Crude oil price: 100 USD/bbl HFO 12.9 USD/GJ, Gas domestic and imported 8.5 and 11 USD/GJ, Coal domestic and imported 2 and 3 USD/GJ 17

18. T&D costs Heavy industry 15 USD/MWh (7% losses) Urban 50 USD/MWh (15% losses) Rural 100 USD/MWh (20% losses) LCOE including TD costs to rural area (120-150 $/MWh additional to LCOE of technologies) 18

19. Decentralized Options Diesel generator (1,070 USD/kW) Solar PV (5,000 USD/kW) Solar PV with buttery (7,000 USD/kW) Small hydro (4,000 USD/kW) Source: JRC Assumptions for Africa in 2030 SPV: 2,600-2,900 USD/kW SPV+battery: 3,600-4,100 USD/kW Small hydro: 3,300-3,600 USD/kW 19

20. Decentralized Options LCOE for decentralized options VS grid connected options 20

21. SAPP model 16% RE with 15% hydro → 35% RE with 19% hydro 21

22. WAPP model 22% RE all hydro in 2010 → 53% RE with 33% hydro 22

23. IRENA’s contributions to the modeling community Improve the representation of renewable energy in modeling/scenario work Narrow the data gasps Bring the insights from the community to the attention of the decision makers You are invited to the IRENA’s special modeling session today at 17:30 23