Hot Topics Seminar What does the Future Hold for the Local economy? Jeff Grainger Director – Centre for Local and Regional Economic Analysis

Outline of Seminar  Portsmouth – Where are we Now?  Factors Affecting Portsmouth’s Future? - Drivers of Growth - General Factors - Specific Developments  Constraints on Growth?  What can be done to:  Promote Growth and  Overcome Constraints

Where are We Now? – A Quick Tour!  Recent report Informing our Future 2006 contains a number of ‘district data sheets’ (14 in total)  Provides a standard set of information for each district  Plus comparisons with South East Regional Averages

Population 190,000 Working Age Population 122,000

Total Number in Employment 103,000

The Local Labour Market

Largest Employers

Where Are We Going? – The Region  The Regional Economic Strategy  Portsmouth and Southampton a ‘Diamond for Investment and Growth’

Where Are We Going? – The Region  The Regional Economic Strategy  Portsmouth and Southampton a ‘Diamond for Investment and Growth’ Investment and Growth in What?

Where Are We Going?  As part of the City Growth ‘Strategy Document’ we identified key CLUSTERS?  How can we identify these?

Key Clusters  Those Industry sectors with: 1. Above average growth rates 2. High levels of Employment 3. High ‘concentration’ of employment

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Key Clusters and ‘Cross Cutting Issues’  Key Clusters - Tourism, Leisure and Retail - Marine Sector - ICT  Cross Cutting Issues - Skills - Transport and Infrastructure - Knowledge, Innovation and Enterprise - City Image

Specific Developments  Northern Quarter  Portsmouth Football Stadium  Portsmouth Naval Base

The Northern Quarter

Northern Quarter - Retail  £350m investment in the city centre  Mix of Uses, including Retail (max 96,200 sq m) Leisure (max 6,650sq m) Residential (max 200 units) incl. Affordable Hotel (150 bed) Car Park of 2,300 spaces (incl. res & hotel)  New Streets  Public Spaces

Impact of Development  4,000 Construction jobs.  4,000 Retail jobs.  Aim to fill 25% of jobs from the local labour force.  Hopefully create the city centre retail environment that Portsmouth needs.

New PFC Stadium Plan is for £600m Waterfront and Residential Development. New 36,000 all seater stadium Built on 13 acres of reclaimed land Fratton Park? Site to be redeveloped with 750 homes – A mix of Houses, Flats and Affordable Housing

1m sq ft of waterfront apartments. Approx 1500 apartments in total 1.5 acres of public area with a variety of leisure provisions Restaurants, bars and cafes

Impact of Development  Many Construction jobs during building phase 2008 to  Permanent Retail and leisure jobs upon completion.  Opportunity to regenerate both Fratton and the Hard waterfont area

Defence and Marine sectors  An uncertain area  First the future of the Naval Base  Plymouth or Portsmouth?  IF Portsmouth closes could lead to loss of almost 22,000 jobs  10,300 service jobs  11,300 civilian jobs  Many of these in the local area

Defence and Marine sectors  Construction of type 45 frigates and new ‘super carriers’  Will these go forward?  How much in Portsmouth?  If constructed – based in Portsmouth?  Could secure and increase employment for ‘on base’ firms  These firms currently employ 3,600 staff (permanent and contract)

Other Key Developments - Tipner A 20 hectare site that NEEDS developing! But expensive and difficult to carry out

Mountbatten Centre 50m pool (8 lanes) teaching pool 150 health + fitness facilities upgraded main hall athletics and cycle tracks plus Gymnastics Centre

Southsea Shopping Area Plans for Southsea include: Development of Southsea ‘cultural quarter’ with Specialist ‘quality’ retailers Including: New FOCUS development to link various parts of the centre Redevelopment of a number of KEY stores Redevelopment of Marmion Road and Waitrose car park

Assessing the Impact Positives and Negatives

Potential jobs on development sites

Potential Jobs (Person Years)

On the Plus Side  New Jobs that:  Replace those that may be lost  Add to the total number of jobs  Regeneration of areas that NEED redevelopment  Potential for iconic developments  BUT!!

On the Downside  Can the City’s Transport Infrastructure cope with?  An expanded retail centre  Stadium with no parking  More in-commuting (for work and leisure)  Roads are already heavily congested  Harbour Station may need upgrading and expanding

Proposed Highway Scheme Is This Enough?

New Jobs – Where are the Skills?  Many new jobs will require skills e.g. construction of super carriers.  Problems of lack of skills and qualifications amongst the local workforce.

Housing – where are People going to Live?  New jobs means a need for more housing  Under PUSH plans 80,000 new homes planned in Portsmouth and Urban South Hampshire  Where are these going to be?  Will they be affordable?  Will there be enough?

Social and Environmental Concerns  Cannot ignore concerns of residents  What impacts will developments have upon the natural and built environment?  Are developments in the optimal locations?  Influx of tourists, visitors, shoppers and football fans?

Conclusions?  Some things NEED to happen  Potentially Exciting  Potentially Problematic  Need to make the most of positive opportunities where they exist  Need to minimise (if possible) negative impacts  Try to ensure that BENEFITS outweigh COSTS

What do YOU Think??