Voting 11/9/2011

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – discuss and critically analyze political events in the United States government – assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without resorting to partisan bickering.

Office Hours and Readings Chapter 5 Chapter 4 ( ) Office Hours – Thursday 8-11:00 – Monday 8-10:30

We Know Why We Vote

BUT WHO DO WE VOTE FOR?

Very Simple

PARTY IDENTIFICATION The Long Term Factor

Party ID Psychological attachment to one of the parties Long Term Factor Best Predictor of Voting Influences other short- term factors

Party ID Rocks

Cleveland Rocks

2008 Vote by Party ID

The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008 Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain There are more Democrats in the electorate Obama wins

ISSUE VOTING This is hard

Issue Voting is Hard We are clueless Too many issues We don’t trust or understand policy

Easy/Single Issue Voting

Most Important Issues in 2008

Retrospective Analysis Looking back at the economy Easier to do if there is an incumbent

The Economy The events of 9/14- Voters disagreed with McCain on the Economy McCain

Economics

CANDIDATE APPRAISALS We Vote for Who We Like

Party Image Impacts our views of the candidate Very important for prospective voting McCain has a terrible party image in 2008

The Republican Brand

The Third Term

Retrospective voting on Bush Bush is Unpopular

McCain Vs. Bush In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

Candidate Image Try to create your own Use issues to your advantage Don’t Let the Media create one for you

Hope and Change A message that worked It meant everything and nothing at the same time

Change Randy Marsh on – Change Change – Change Change

Hope as a message

Change

Bad Images

THE ELECTION OF 2010

The Results

The Nationalized Election National factors trumped local factors for the third time This time around, these factors favored the GOP This Hurts Incumbents

Party ID Rules the Day

People do not like Congress

Issues and 2010

The Issues of 2010

THE ECONOMY The Primary Issue

A Referendum on the Economy

Unemployment

Who is to Blame?

Health Care Opinion Remained Divided

A Referendum on Obama

THE TEA PARTY The X factor in 2010

The Tea Party Movement Unique in that they do not want anything from government Very Motivated

The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government

The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters

The Tea party was a Popular Movement

With Motivated Voters on Election Day

BETTING ON OBAMA The odds in 2012

Incumbency The Last incumbents who lost were – 1992 – 1980 – 1976 He is facing no primary challenger

Campaign Finance $1,000,000,000 Independent Expenditures as Well Any Republican must get at least 2/3 of this

The Electoral College

Popular on the Left Strong Support Among Democrats Very popular among key constituencies Policies are popular, and he is personally popular

Overall Popularity Close To 50%

GDP Growth

Figure 9.4Presidential vote by income growth, 1948–2008

For the GOP to win, they need a candidate who can expand the Republican Map

THE 2012 ELECTION Four Scenarios

Going In to 2012 Both Parties are optimistic Unknowns – The Economy – The Republican Nominee – Seats in the House and Senate

Scenario 1: The Status Quo Little Change in either the House or Senate A “personal victory” for Obama (e.g. 1984) or the failure by the opposition (2004). Good odds of this happening

Scenario 2: An Emerging Democratic Majority Coincides with an Obama victory The Democrats take back the House, expand lead in the Senate A return to the Obama Coalition of

Scenario 3: A Republican Congress GOP keeps the House The GOP Surges in the Senate- This leads to full-scale battle between the President and Congress

Scenario 4: A Republican Sweep The GOP maintains the House Gains 4 in the Senate Wins the Presidency Least Likely

2012 will be about turnout in battleground states

SOME NATIONS LOVE TO VOTE Voting in a Comparative Perspective

Why so high elsewhere? Compulsory voting Fewer Elections PR systems and MMD

Why Turnout Should Be High in the USA Easier To Register A National two-party system A better-educated population

Despite this, fewer Americans Vote! We call the Paradox of Participation

TURNOUT: THE GOOD AND BAD

Why Low turnout is bad Groups who do not vote, get used by those that do Voting levels the playing field Voting is essential for democracy to succeed

Why Low Turnout is not that bad Low Turnout is actually a good thingthing People are not voting for the wrong candidate Stability in the System Voting is only one way of participation

Ways to Increase Turnout Continue to Lower Costs – Mandatory voting – Same Day Registration – Mail and Internet voting – Weekend Voting – Holiday Voting