Transition London From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience. September 16 th Rob Hopkins. Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network

The Hirsch Report, 2005 “...the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking” (emphasis added) (Hirsch 2005).

Rapid Depletion and/or early peaking Slow Depletion and/or later peaking Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets Reactive Response Markets, Technology, Society & Government 4 Energy Scenarios 31 24

Rapid Depletion and/or early peaking Slow Depletion and/or later peaking Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets Reactive Response Markets, Technology, Society & Government 4 Energy Scenarios “Techno-Markets” aka “Sustainable Development” “Burnout” aka “Climate Chaos” aka “Business as Usual” “Lean Economy” * aka “Powerdown” “Collapse” aka “Mad Max” aka “Easter Island” aka “90s Cuba/Russia” * per David Fleming

Peak Oil & Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) climate engineering climate engineering carbon capture and storage carbon capture and storage tree-based carbon offsets tree-based carbon offsets international emissions trading international emissions trading climate adaptation climate adaptation improved transportation logistics improved transportation logistics nuclear power nuclear power PLANNED RELOCALISATION local resilience local resilience carbon reduction carbon reduction consume closer to home consume closer to home produce closer to home produce closer to home play closer to home play closer to home decentralised energy infrastructure decentralised energy infrastructure the Great Reskilling the Great Reskilling localised food localised food energy descent plans energy descent plans local medicinal capacity local medicinal capacity local currencies local currencies PEAK OIL PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquids coal to liquids gas to liquids gas to liquids relaxed drilling regulations relaxed drilling regulations massively scaled biofuels massively scaled biofuels tar sands and non- conventional oils tar sands and non- conventional oils resource nationalism and stockpiling resource nationalism and stockpiling

1. Positive Visioning

“It will be a huge wrench to leave all this behind, but I have always wanted to live in the country. Our new house will be an eco- home. We are going from one extreme to another”. Anna Ryder Richardson Hello! magazine 1 st January 2008

2. Help People Access Good Information and Trust Them to Make Good Decisions

3. Inclusion and Openness

Working with Business Oil Vulnerability Analysis. Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses. Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group. Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow. Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce

Estates in Transition conference. June 11 th Working with Local Landowners.

4. Enabling Sharing and Networking

5. Building Resilience. © Totnes Image Bank

George Heath. A Powerdown Pioneer. © Totnes Image Bank

Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana

“…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming

6. Inner and Outer Transition

Up and Running Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing / Education / Transport

7. Subsidiarity: decision making at the appropriate level The Purpose of Transition.... “To support community-led responses to peak oil and climate change, building resilience and happiness”.

Totnes, Penwith, Kinsale, Ireland, Ivybridge, Falmouth, Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud, Ashburton, Ottery St. Mary, Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Nottingham, Wrington, Brighton&Hove, Portobello, Scotland, Market Harborough, Sunshine Coast, Australia, West Kirby, Llandeilo, Wales, Bro Ddyfi, Wales, Whitstable, Marsden & Slaithwaite, Frome, Brampton, Isle of Wight, Waiheke Island, New Zealand, Orewa, New Zealand, Dunbar, Scotland, Rhayader, Wales, Seaton, Bath, Exeter, Isle of Man, Canterbury, Kapiti District, New Zealand, Carbon Neutral Biggar, a Transition Town, Presteigne, Wolverton, Leicester, Holywood, Westcliff-on-Sea, Isles of Scilly, Liverpool South, Norwich, Tring, Crediton, Boulder, CO, USA, North Howe, Lampeter, South Petherton, Armidale, NSW, Chichester, bell, VIC, Bellingen, NSW, Berkhamsted, Forres, Sandpoint, ID, USA, Opotiki Coast, New Zealand, Newcastle, NSW, Chepstow, Coventry, Bungay, Nelson, Hervey Bay, QLD, Mersea Island, Maidenhead, Ladock & Grampound Road, Leek, Horsham.... and Ambridge!

Some Things that Transition Initiatives Do.... Have Official Unleashings.... “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

Plant Nut Trees in Odd Places... “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

Make Food Directories....

Print Their Own Money...

The Lewes Pound

The Brixton Brick?

Share Gardens....

Try to Do Something about Being So Useless... Skilling Up for Powerdown. Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning …

Engage their local government World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors Endorsed by Totnes Town Council Contributions to Local Development Framework.

Learn Their History...

Buy Solar Panels Together... Totnes Solar Thermal Challenge

Set Up Energy Companies...

Become Developers....

Create Energy Descent Action Plans... Start with a vision and then backcast Start with a vision and then backcast Incorporate Transition Tales Incorporate Transition Tales Base it on current planning documents. Base it on current planning documents.

...and in the City? You aren’t alone... You aren’t alone...

We’ve Been Here Before

...What Happened Then?

Now Available! “ The Transition Handbook : from oil dependency to local resilience ” published by Green Books