The Vital Statistics System in China Wu Jie Department of Population and Employment National Bureau of Statistics of China United Nations Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems 27 – 30 June 2011 New York

Total Population of 2010 Census

National Population

Outline 1.The Vital Statistics System in China Population census in China 3.Annual Population Change Sample Survey 4.Administrative records 5.Comparing and evaluating the quality of vital statistics

System Census Sample survey Administrative records 1. The Vital Statistics System in China

SequenceYear Population (million) First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Censuses

The 1% population sample survey, conducted during the inter-censual years ending in 5 The annual 1‰ sample survey on population changes Quarterly labor force survey The monthly labor force survey, usually running in big cities Sample survey

Administrative records Supplement sources to those collected through regular population census and sample surveys

2010 Population Census in China Reference time Respondent Process of 2010 Census Challenges New Characteristics Census Items Initial findings

2010 Population Census in China Reference time: 1 November 2010 Respondent:  de Facto living persons;  household registration persons (de jure) for outgoing migrants

Preparation (Oct Oct.2010) Field enumeration (Nov.1-10,2010) Field check (Nov.11-20,2010 ) Post enumeration survey (Dec. 2010) Advance tabulation (Dec Apr. 2011) Data processing (Dec Dec.2011) Data dissemination (Apr –2013) and utilization Process of 2010 Census

Challenges for Census-taking in China Difficulty in Counting Migrant Population Greater Residence-registration Inconsistency Lower Cooperation from Respondents Under-reporting of Births Difficulty in Recruiting Enumerators Establishing strict quality control and acceptance systems

New Characteristics for 2010 Population Census Stronger Legal Basis Changes in enumeration method Collection information on international migrants Remote sensing images in aid of census divisions and mapping Topics covered in the Census Wider use of administrative records Improving data processing efficiency

Stronger Legal Basis Regulations on Population census  specifies objectives, principles and methods  more emphasis on rights of respondents  stronger protection of privacy

Changes in enumeration method  de Facto approach (as compared with de jure approach used in 2000 census)  information also collected at the place of household registration (de jure) for outgoing migrants  operationally easier for enumerators  more information on migration

Collection information on international migrants  cover foreigners who have resided in China for some time  a shorter questionnaire (8 questions) was used and in-person interview was conducted

Remote sensing images in aid of census divisions and mapping  divide census enumeration areas nationwide: nearly 7 million areas  remote sensing images were used in preparing maps of census areas and blocks: full coverage census areas without duplication or omission.  prepare basic material for the spatial analysis of population by combining census data and spatial positions.

Topics covered in the Census  combination of long form (10%) and short form (90%)  short form ： 6 household items, 12 individual items  long form: 19 household items, 28 individual items

Wider use of administrative records  resident population and migrants information from the household registration administered by the Ministry of Public Security  birth information collected by family planning departments, the health department as well as the community and village committees

Improving data processing fficiency  a decentralized strategy  OCR data entry, conducted at municipal- level  a Chinese-character handwriting recognition technology: nationality and residence address directly identified

Establishing strict quality control and acceptance systems  quality control teams at all levels  a routine check-up and a random spot check  Post enumeration survey: after field enumeration, a total of 402 enumeration blocks were randomly selected to conduct post-enumeration survey to compare with the records of census enumeration, which resulted in a population undercount rate of 0.12 percent.

Duplicated rate & Uncoverage rate 1982 Duplicated rate 0.15‰ 1990 Uncoverage rate 0.6‰ 2000 Uncoverage rate 1.81% 2010 Uncoverage rate 1.2‰

Items round 2010 census Household & Individual: sex, age, ethnicity, education level, industry, occupation, social security, marriage and fertility, mortality, migration, housing, unemployment

Short Form: Household Items (6) H1: household no. H2: type of household (family, collective) H3: number of persons H4: births and deaths during last 12 months H5: floor space of housing H6: number of rooms

Short Form: Individual Items (12) R1: name R2: relation with head of household R3: gender R4: date of birth R5: nationality (ethnic group) R6: place of residence at reference time R7: place of household registration R8: duration since leaving place of household registration R9: reason for leaving place of household registration R10: nature of household registration (agri. vs non-agri) R11: ability to read R12: education attainment

Long Form: Household Items (17) H1-H4: same as in short form H5: nature of housing H6: floor space of housing H7: number of rooms H8: type of building (single or multi-floor) H9: construction of building H10: time when building was constructed H11: with/without access to pipe water H12: fuel for cooking H13: with/without kitchen H14: with/without toilet H15: with/without hot water bathing facility H16: source of housing H17: monthly rent (in case of renting)

Long Form: Individual Items (28) R1-R12: for all persons R1-R9: same as in short form R10: nature of residence at household registration (urban/rural) R11: nature of household registration (agri. vs non-agri) R12: place of birth R13: (persons aged 5 and over) R13: address of residence 5 years ago R14-16: (persons aged 6 and over) R14: ability to read R15: education attainment R16: status of completion of education

Long Form: Individual Items (28) R17-25: (persons aged 15 and over) R17: status of employment R18: industry R19: occupation R20: reason for not working R21: whether having looked for work during last 3 months R22: able/unable to work in 2 weeks if given a job R23: sources of living R24: marital status R25: date of first marriage

Long Form: Individual Items (28) R26: (woman aged 15-64) R26: number of births (male, female) and number of children surviving (male, female) R27: (woman aged 15-50) R27: fertility status during last 12 months (with/without births, month when giving first or second and more birth, gender of baby) R28: (persons aged 60 and over) R28: health condition

Initial vital statistics findings

Total Population and Annual Growth Rate from Population Censuses

Sex Composition from Population Censuses

Age Composition from Population Censuses

Age Pyramid from Population Censuses

Proportion of Population Aged 60+ and 65+ from Population Censuses

Composition of Nationalities from Population Censuses

Population with College Education Per 100,000 Persons from Population Censuses

Population Migration

Geographic Distribution of Population 39

Residents from Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Foreigners 40

Annual Population Change Sample Survey (APS) Established officially from 1983 Conducted by NBS in China once a year Provide reliable population data at the national and provincial level every year such as: –annual total population –population structural –fertility and mortality –…

Items on APS Covers key items that are collected in censuses –sex, age, ethnicity, the level of education, marital status, fertility, mortality, migration and etc. A survey methodology book is published every year for training and supervision

Sample Survey Multi-stage, with stratified clusters proportional to size  Taking the whole country as the population and provincial level as sub- population  The sample size is 1.2 million persons

Sampling design method Population annual and labor force quarterly survey samples are rotated by certain proportion the whole country as population, provincial level as sub-population multi-stage stratified clusters proportional sampling Final sample unit is enumeration area, enumeration areas divided by 30 households The fourth quarter labor force survey samples are the same as population survey

The sample size （ 10,000 persons ） Population change Quarterly labor force the whole Nation Urban and Town 40 Rural8020 Average by province 42

Calculating main data from sample Survey Estimating main data on population and sub population: Total population, CBR, CDR, … Analyzing sampling variance Evaluating data quality Publications

Departments involved The Ministry of Public Security The Ministry of Civil Affairs The Ministry of Health The Ministry of Education The Population and family planning committee Administrative records

Ministries’ data dissemination MinistryDissemination The Ministry of Public Security household registration data The Ministry of Civil Affairs marriages and deaths The Ministry of Health maternal and child health cause of death The Ministry of Education education statistics

5. Comparing and evaluating the quality of vital statistics Three main resources obtaining the major population data: –survey conducted by National Statistical Bureau –census conducted by National Statistical Bureau –administrative records mainly refers to household registration collected by the Ministry of Public Security

IndexCensusSurvey Household Registration Specifications Resident household registration Coverage Full1% or 1‰ Data on registered permanent residence above county level usual population Indicators total population, CBR, CDR, Urban population proportion, etc. total population CBR, CDR, etc. Remarks undercount 0.12% (2010) not getting small area result Uncoverage people without registration Comparing data sources

The same standard in survey and census Three types of resident peoples from censuses and surveys with the same standard: –residing in the township, towns and street communities with permanent household registration there –residing in the township, towns and street communities, with permanent household registration elsewhere, away from that place for more than 6 months –residing in the township, towns and street communities, with place of permanent household registration unsettled

The Relationship among Census, Survey and Project The Census The Sample Survey Adjust the historical data Estimation and Communiqué The Project the Base Modify

The publication of the Ministry of Public Security Publish yearbook every year –releasing about data on the total population including provincial and small area population –Using Permanent Household Registration statistical method which is different definitions and data collection methods from survey and census

The Difference of total population Different resources, different total population data: –For example in 2008, the total population is million people by NBS, and the household registration population is million people. The main reason of difference is that some people do not have household registration

Estimating and Adjusting the Survey data According to the census and administrative records, major annual population data by nation and province are estimated from survey After the National Population Census, a few years survey data before censuses will be estimated and analyzed, and decided whether data should be adjusted Administrative records are effective complement and reference during estimating data in survey

The Application of Administrative Records The composition of population can be checked and estimated by the education data, especially the birth data The data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs is the main source of annual marriages and divorces The data from the Ministry of Health is the main resource of cause of death

Conclusion Population censuses and sample surveys are the main sources of the vital statistics in China Administrative records are effective complement and reference of the censuses and surveys How administrative records and sample survey can be combined to generate small area population estimates is now being investigated

Database system National basic repository of the population information, based on data from relevant agencies such as –Public Security, Family Planning, Human Resources and Social Security, Housing and Urban-rural, Education, Transportation, Industry and Commerce, Taxation, and financial information system resources