1Climate Change and Disaster Risk Session 3 World Bank Institute Maarten van Aalst Information, methods and tools

2Climate Change and Disaster Risk Information, methods and tools for climate risk reduction Global warming Rising disaster impacts Climate risk management

3Climate Change and Disaster Risk Key Source of Information on Climate Change Global Climate Models

4Climate Change and Disaster Risk Challenges/limitations of model simulations:  Uncertain future GHG emissions  Model uncertainties /shortcomings  Spatial resolution  Difficulties of modeling extremes

5Climate Change and Disaster Risk Climate information at shorter timescales Enhanced climate risk management by using information at intermediate timescale: climate forecasts for the next few months (getting better quickly)

6Climate Change and Disaster Risk Example 1-2 week global hazard forecasts

7Climate Change and Disaster Risk Sources of information (1) People/Institutions  Meteorological Office  Climate Change Focal Point (often in Ministry of Environment)  National and international science institutes

8Climate Change and Disaster Risk Sources of information (2) Online information  IPCC  UNFCCC national communications national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs)  International research institutes, such as IRI  Specialized agencies, such as WHO

9Climate Change and Disaster Risk Sources of information (3) Visualization tools e.g. SERVIR Viz

10Climate Change and Disaster Risk Examples of methods and tools (1) Project design/risk screening  ADAPT (investments projects)  CRISTAL (community level) ADAPT RISK FLAGS Red flag– adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended Yellow flag– some concerns, which should be checked Orange flag– Not enough known to assess Green flag– No adaptation issues foreseen Blue flag– Positive action for adaptation

11Climate Change and Disaster Risk Adapt (1)

12Climate Change and Disaster Risk Adapt (2)

13Climate Change and Disaster Risk Cristal (1)

14Climate Change and Disaster Risk Cristal (2)

15Climate Change and Disaster Risk Examples of methods and tools (2) Portfolio screening processes, e.g.  OECD  DGIS  ORCHID

16Climate Change and Disaster Risk Orchid Sensitization and awareness-raising Strategic Overview Initial Portfolio Screening Climate change and disasters profile Climate change and disasters assessment Adaptation / Risk reduction options Adaptation options integrated Risk screening of future programming Options assessmentCost benefit analysis

17Climate Change and Disaster Risk Examples of methods and tools (3) Climate risk management process guidance

18Climate Change and Disaster Risk Key elements of climate risk reduction for DM organizations  Preliminary climate risk assessment: assess how risks are changing  Assess priorities and plan follow up  Implementation within regular programs Cross-cutting elements: Raising awareness on changing risks; Establishing and enhancing partnerships; Documenting and sharing experiences and information.