EGS 3021F: Vulnerability to Environmental Change Gina Ziervogel December 2011 This work by Gina Ziervogel is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

Adaptation  Responding to climate change impacts is possible  Humans can respond in anticipation  Natural system can only adapt in response to change Mitigation  Decreasing emissions  Protocols for decreasing emissions are in place  More efficient energy use is possible

 Adaptation is understood to be an adjustment in the ecological, social or economic systems in response to observed or expected changes and their effects and impacts in order to alleviate adverse impacts or take advantage of new opportunities (Adger et al, 2005)

Adaptation is a process of deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress (Nelson et al, 2007)

 The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. ( )

 Vulnerability enables a focus on agency and how people are not passive recipients of climate change  People have caused it  People can reduce exposure to it  People can respond to the impacts  Many climate change vulnerability studies focus on the risk and not the internal capacity component of vulnerability

 about equity…linking climate change to uneven development  concerns people…begin with the humanitarian concerns for vulnerable socio- economic groups  an integrating method…for targeting adaptation

International action needs to be developed in ways that support adaptive capacity and resilience of vulnerable communities (“Unjust Water” by Action Aid. Access paper at ) By Sean Wilson for SEI

(Eakin and Lemos, 2006:10)

 By understanding vulnerability to climate change it is possible to identify priority areas for adaptation  Adaptation can then focus on  Reducing exposure to the hazards  Decreasing sensitivity to the hazard  Increasing adaptive capacity to respond to the hazard

Measures directly addressing climate change risks creating a new buffer zone in an area of increasing flood risk Measures addressing underlying causes of vulnerability addressing barriers to accessing new farming technologies such as drought resistant seeds Measures building adaptive capacity strengthening the reliability of channels for sending remittances (Eriksen et al, 2008)

 Although there may be physical drivers, adaptation is based on people and institutions  Aim of adaptation is to decrease vulnerability to climate change  Should support the goals of those most vulnerable  Development is about social change and capacity to implement change

 More than just consideration of climate in development planning  Link to the climate science  Historical trends  Future scenarios  Cross-sectoral approach

 Address longer time horizons  As opposed to short policy horizons  Environmental/social sustainability vs profit  Include bottom-up and top-down approaches  Include information from those impacted  About policy as well as practice  Whilst supporting short term poverty and development agendas  Maintain support  Urgent needs

 Focus on opportunities to bring different stakeholders together  Recognise multiple goals  Identify key climate variables, thresholds & uncertainties  Link to development priorities  Identify institutional challenges By Gina Ziervogel

Anticipatory: takes place before impacts of climate change Reactive: takes place after impacts of climate change are observed Autonomous: response due to change in environment or market, rather than conscious response to climate change Planned: as a result of deliberate decision (may be prompted by policy) Private: by individuals, households and businesses Public: initiated by government at all levels (

Some adaptation is contextual and local One group of farmers needs drought-resistant seeds; Another improved water saving techniques Another, improved access to markets [Anticipatory or reactive; private] Context specific By Gina Ziervogel

Some adaptation has no benefits, or costs exceed benefits Increasing the design standard of a road surface to cope with increased rainfall intensity only has benefits if that road experiences a storm of such magnitude (meanwhile the costs are incurred at present) [Anticipatory; public] By Gina Ziervogel

Some adaptation has immediate costs and delayed benefits Building a reservoir with added capacity to cope with increased flood volumes that are not expected for years in the future [Anticipatory; public] By Gina Ziervogel

Adger, N.W., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15: Eakin, H. and Lemos, M.C Adaptation and the state: Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization. Global Environmental Change 16(1): 7–18 Eriksen, S., O’Brien, K. and Rosentrater, L Climate Change in Eastern and Southern Africa: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. The International Project Office of the Global Environmental Change and Human Security( GECHS) Report 2008:2. Can be accessed at Nelson, D.R., Adger, N.W. and Brown, K Adaptation to Environmental Change: Contributions of a Resilience Framework. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 32. All web links were checked in November 2011

 Some slide material from Tom Downing, Stockholm Environment Institute and GCAP