THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI.

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Presentation transcript:

THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI

THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 1 DISRUPTION IS UPON US

100X THE INNOVATION OF PAST CYCLES THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 2 100X THE INNOVATION OF PAST CYCLES 10X The Innovators $ 1/10th The Cost 100X The Power Source: James McQuivey, Digital Disruption

MOVING AT LIGHTNING SPEED THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 3 MOVING AT LIGHTNING SPEED Agricultural revolution took thousands of years Industrial revolution took hundreds of years IT revolution is taking decades

THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 4 CREATING UNCERTAINTY 80% of the world's 100 largest companies will not be on the list in 30 years

CAUSING COLLATERAL DAMAGE THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 5 CAUSING COLLATERAL DAMAGE Technology is destroying jobs faster than it is creating them in advanced economies.

PARTLY FUELLED BY CENTRAL BANKS THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 6 PARTLY FUELLED BY CENTRAL BANKS 5000 400 4000 300 3000 NASDAQ Composite Seed Rounds $million 200 2000 100 1000 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 2014 NASDAQ Index Seed Capital Source: Mattermark, 2015 https://mattermark.com/exploring-the-connection-between-startup-funding-activity-and-u-s-interest-rates/

1.0

USA TRAVEL AGENTS 99,730 50,630 120 100 Thousands 80 60 40 1999 00 01 THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 8 USA TRAVEL AGENTS 99,730 120 100 Thousands 80 50,630 60 40 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/08/30/travel-agents-we-do-exist/

MUSIC Now Physical Streaming 15 10 $Billion 5 2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 9 MUSIC 15 Now 10 $Billion 5 2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 2015 16 17 18 19 2020 Physical Streaming Source: Credit Suisse/Quartz 2014: http://qz.com/284176/why-music-must-embrace-the-latest-wave-of-industry-disruption/

BOOKS Now E-Books Print 20 15 US $Billion 10 5 2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 10 BOOKS 20 15 Now US $Billion 10 5 2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 2015 16 2017 E-Books Print http://www.statista.com/chart/1159/ebook-sales-to-surpass-printed-book-sales-in-2017/

CAMERAS Digital Cameras Smartphones 1000 800 600 Million 400 200 2009 THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 11 CAMERAS 1000 800 600 Million 400 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Digital Cameras Smartphones Source: Wall Street Journal, 2013 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324251504578580263719432252

ADVERTISEMENTS Newspaper Print Ads Google Adwords 50 40 30 $Billion 20 THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 12 ADVERTISEMENTS 50 40 30 $Billion 20 10 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 2012 Newspaper Print Ads Google Adwords Source: McKinsey 2014 http://mckinseyonmarketingandsales.com/sites/default/files/pdf/2_21_14_Digital%20disruption.pdf

TRADITIONAL MEDIA Internet Advertising as % of Total Advertising 2015 THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 13 TRADITIONAL MEDIA 60 51 50 40 37 40 28 28 Traditional Media Disruption Zone 27 30 20 13 12 7 10 UK AU PRC USA NZ EU HK SG SEA Internet Advertising as % of Total Advertising 2015 Source: APD Analysis, 2015

Non-linear disruption of SMS THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 14 TELCOS Non-linear disruption of SMS 30 20 Daily messages (bn) Now 10 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 SMS WhatsApp Source: Mattermark, 2015 https://mattermark.com/exploring-the-connection-between-startup-funding-activity-and-u-s-interest-rates/

2.0

4bn 1bn 50bn 100mn HALF THE PLANET WILL BE CONNECTED BY 2020 Smart THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 16 HALF THE PLANET WILL BE CONNECTED BY 2020 4bn Smart phones 1bn Homes with WiFi 50bn Connected devices 100mn Connected cars

$600bn $300bn $200bn $100bn GIANT MARKETS WILL BE CREATED Internet of THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 17 GIANT MARKETS WILL BE CREATED 2x the revenues of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Samsung and IBM by 2020 $600bn Internet of Everything $300bn Sharing Economy $200bn The Cloud $100bn Big Data

“This will change everything.” THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 18 SMARTPHONES “This will change everything.”

HOLE THE SHARING ECONOMY I don’t want to buy a drill I need a THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 19 THE SHARING ECONOMY I don’t want to buy a drill I need a HOLE in the wall!!

THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 20 THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING “The Internet of Everything will be five to ten times more impactful in the next decade than the entire Internet has been to date.” - John Chambers, Cisco CEO

CONNECTED DEVICES Now PC, smartphone & tablet market IoT 25 20 15 THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 21 CONNECTED DEVICES 25 20 15 Now $Billion 10 5 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E PC, smartphone & tablet market IoT Source: BI Intelligence Estimates, 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/bi_intelligence/bii-the-internet-of-everything-2015

3-D PRINTING THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 22 Source: Xerox 914 copier brochure, 1962 (http://yourmemento.naa.gov.au/2012/10/theres-no-such-thing-as-the-paperless-office-or-is-there/)

Everything ahead is being disrupted THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 23 Everything ahead is being disrupted

WINNERS AND LOSERS Shrinking Industries Growing Industries THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 24 WINNERS AND LOSERS Shrinking Industries Growing Industries Renewables & Environment Internet Online Publishing Philanthropy E-Learning Public Policy International Trade & Development Think Tanks Venture Capital Computer Games Health, Wellness & Fitness Oil & Energy Utilities Medical Devices Management Consulting Hospital & Health Care Marketing & Advertising Information Technology Financial Services Real Estate Pharmaceuticals Telecommunications Banking Construction Automotive Retail Supermarkets Capital Markets Size of circle is related to volume of jobs gained or lost Warehousing Restaurants Newspapers -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Source: TBC

PROF. MICHAEL PORTER: WHAT BUSINESS AM I IN? THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 25 PROF. MICHAEL PORTER: WHAT BUSINESS AM I IN? Image source: The Simpsons, Fox Broadcasting Company

IS YOUR MANAGEMENT TEAM READY? THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 26 IS YOUR MANAGEMENT TEAM READY?

IS YOUR BOARD READY FOR THE FIGHT? THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 27 IS YOUR BOARD READY FOR THE FIGHT?

THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 28 <10% of the NEDs of top 20 listed companies in each of Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand have deep technology experience Source: Thomson Reuters and APD research 2015

THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 29 If we exclude technology and telco boards, <5% of NEDs have deep technology experience Source: Thomson Reuters and APD research 2015

THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI SUMMARISED 30 THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI SUMMARISED Happening now, happening fast On multiple fronts More urgent than you think Disruptors are now being disrupted Leadership is a deciding factor

Will you DISRUPT or be DISRUPTED ?

APD: 360 DEGREE DIGITAL SERVICES Interact Strategy & technology Acquire Performance marketing Engage Conversion & retention Venture eCommerce ventures

APD: 360 DEGREE DIGITAL SERVICES 400 team members 10 Offices 8 countries $60m Reported revenues 1000+ Regional clients