Chapter 11 Regime Transitions Comparative Politics: Structures and Choices 2e By Lowell Barrington

Learning Objectives  Define key concepts such as regime transition, democratic breakdown, and democratization.  Discuss why democratization can be destabilizing for a country.  Describe the characteristics of a consolidated democracy.  Summarize the major explanations that focus on structures and choices of democratization.  Outline the historical and recent experiences with regime transition in the Topic in Countries cases.

Regime Transition  Liberalization  Democratization  Democratic Breakdown Fig The Continuum from Authoritarian to Democratic Systems

Regime Transition  Democratization  Waves of Democratization  Democratization wave  Reverse wave  Stages of Democratization  The Breakdown of the Nondemocratic System  Establishment of the Democratic System  Consolidation of Democracy

Think and Discuss Which of the indicators of democratic consolidation would most convincingly indicate that a democracy is consolidated? Why?

Regime Transition  Democratic Breakdown (Linz)  Crisis stage  Breakdown stage  Reequilibration

Think and Discuss Could democracy possibly break down in the United Kingdom? In the United States? How?

 Structure Versus Choice and Internal Versus External Understanding Regime Transitions Fig Categorizing Structural and Choice Variables

Understanding Regime Transitions  Internal Structural Explanations of Democratization  Economic Structure  Political Culture  Identity Structure  Political Structures: The Institutional Arrangements of the New Democracy

Understanding Regime Transitions  External Structural Explanations of Democratization  The Importance of the International Polar System  Imposition Through Conquest  Global Economic Structure  International Organizations and Their Membership Rules  IGOs and NGOs  Demonstration Effects (“Contagion”)

Understanding Regime Transitions  Internal Choice Explanations of Democratization  Leadership and Elite Choices in the Nondemocratic System Breakdown Stage  Leadership and Elite Choices in the Establishment and Consolidation Stages  Pacts

Think and Discuss Pacts are, in many ways, undemocratic. They involve a small group of individuals deciding both the institutional arrangements of a new democracy and key economic and social policies. Is it good to build a new democracy in such an undemocratic fashion? Why?

Understanding Regime Transitions  External Choice Explanations of Democratization  Role of individuals outside the country  Who was most responsible for ending Communism in Eastern Europe: Reagan, Gorbachev, or John Paul II?  Triggering Events  This concept addresses the issue of timing rather than underlying causes  What is the “spark” that lights the “fuel” of structural and choice factors?

Understanding Regime Transitions  Structural and Choice Explanations of Democratic Breakdown  Some of the factors that can bring democracy to a country can lead it to break down  What makes elites and masses turn away from democracy?  Combining Structural and Choice Arguments

Topic in Countries  The United Kingdom  Gradual evolution from strong monarchy to consolidated democracy over several hundred years  Germany  Externally imposed democracy after WWII; today a highly consolidated democracy  India  Democratic system since its independence from the British

Topic in Countries  Mexico  Democratization mirrored economic and social developments; large role of external factors  Brazil  Top-down management of democratization; not yet consolidated, but has survived numerous challenges  Nigeria  Currently on 4 th attempt at democratization; case highlights importance of tackling corruption

Topic in Countries  Russia  Functional democracy during 1990s, with creeping authoritarianism following the Putin’s win in the 2000 presidential election  China  No significant experience with democratization; economic liberalization may lead to political liberalization, but cannot predict when  Iran  Demographic shifts since the Revolution of 1979 favor democratization, although hard-liners have held on to their significant institutional power

Think and Discuss What lesson can be learned from India to better understand democratization? Is this lesson applicable to other cases?