1. Consolidating Democracy

2. Today’s class How we compare
Factors which facilitate successful transitions
Other end points?
Consolidating democracy;
How can we study it?

3. How we compare Most similar cases: Most different cases
Two or more similar countries at the same point in time
The same country at different points in time
Most different cases
Macro-comparison
A single case in comparative context

4. Facilitating factors:
Constitutions which are nominally democratic
Incentives –
membership in EU for southern and eastern European countries
trade?
Failing economic model?
Educated citizenry?
Restraint among opposition forces?
Globalization?
If so, which facets and what difference do they make?

5. Examples of restraint:
Pacts among outgoing and incoming forces:
Venezuela 1958
Spain 1977
Poland 1989
‘Safe conduct:’ Agreement not to prosecute members of the outgoing regime

6. An end to transitions? Iran: Russia, Ukraine, most ex-USSR: China?
Has it ever reached the tipping point?
Russia, Ukraine, most ex-USSR:
What you see is what you get?
China?
Iraq??
Syria??

7. Consolidating democracy

8. Question:
Are there certain circumstances under which transition is more likely or less likely?
Level of wealth?
Level of education?
Media access?
Failing economy? Or growing economy?

9. Consolidating democracy:
Is restraint sufficient?
Are certain pre-conditions required?
If so, what are they?

10. Some possibilities: Rule of law?
Higher levels of economic development?
Ways of managing political cleavages?
Mass and elite commitment to liberal democracy?
External support?
Freedom from external pressures?

11. Problems countries face:
Dealing with the past
For former communist countries, establishing a market economy

12. Our World: Afghanistan and Beyond
Reminders:
Annotated bibliography due Friday, October 5th
This Friday:
Ajmal Pashtoonyar
Our World: Afghanistan and Beyond
11:00 a.m.
Friday, Sept. 28th
C3033