1. Today’s Topics Pacts and Transitology 1.Example of South African pact. 2.Characteristics and components of pacts. 3.Analysis of transition model. 4.Group activity on cases and transition types.

2. Pact-Making

3. South African Case 1990: ANC and National Party agreed to form congress to draft interim constitution. 1991-1992: CODESA met, included 17 parties and regional governments. –1991 Declaration of Intent (on website) 1992: CODESA collapse  Mandela and de Klerk negotiations –Sept. 1992: Record of Understanding (on website) 1993: MPNP drafted interim constitution. 1994: First full election, interim constitution in force. –Elected parliament formed Constitutional Assembly to write final constitution. 1997: Final constitution in force.

4. Other examples of Pacted Regimes Venezuela (1958) –Pact of Punto Fijo Colombia (1957) Spain (1975) Poland (1989)

5. Characteristics of Pacts 1.Pacts are typically temporary arrangements. Measures to avoid certain undesired outcomes.

6. Characteristics of Pacts 2.Pacts limit the agenda of discussion among key parties. Limited actors, no “mass” representation.

7. Characteristics of Pacts 3.Pacts are an undemocratic means to democratic rule. –Small # of elite participants. –Limit accountability to wider constituents. –Attempt to control policy agenda.

8. Characteristics of Pacts 4.Pacts are not necessary for democratization to occur.

9. Typical Components of Pacts Renunciation of violence. Relinquishment of right to appeal to outside supporters. Often commitment to make more pacts in future. Procedures for regulating competition or distributing benefits.

10. Distinction between different kinds of pacts (Przeworski) 1.Institutional Pacts –Negotiate procedural rules for new regime. 2.Substantive Pacts –Guarantee substantive goods to certain groups.

11. Guarantees often Included in Pacts Guarantees to outgoing military leaders –No punishment for crimes committed while in power. –Military’s proper role must be respected. –e.g. Pinochet in Chile.

12. Guarantees often Included in Pacts Guarantees to political parties –Distribution of representative positions in legislature. –Participation in policymaking. –Electoral rules. –Limited number of parties at table. –Guarantees to minorities.

13. Guarantees often Included in Pacts Socioeconomic questions –How various outside ally groups will behave during transition. –Can’t threaten basic class structure.

14. Analysis

15. How important are pacts for successful transition to democracy? Some pacted transitions have later reverted to authoritarianism. –E.g. Venezuela In other cases, no pact but apparent successful democratization. –E.g. Czechoslovakia, Baltic states Thus, any causal impact?

16. Small Group Activity: South Africa and USSR/ Russia – which kind of transition? Review characteristics of transformation, replacement, transplacement. Make case for which type best fits your country.

17. Analysis of Transition Model What causes initial liberalization? Initial trigger for democratization can’t be predicted. How do we really distinguish characters? Moderate softliner or thorough democratizer? Is the model teleological – presupposes democratic outcome?