Looking more closely at the current food supply estimates and data gaps for grains from production to Food Guide Pyramid servings Gary Vocke, Jean Buzby, and Linda Kantor Economic Research Service

We need your help to improve the food supply data 1) Loss estimates for grain-based foods 2) Whole grains data gaps 3) Subset of grain products included in the trade data 4) Nonflour wheat estimate

Issue 1: Improve loss estimates Losses estimated for individual grain commodity groups  White and whole wheat flour  Durum flour  Rye flour  Rice (milled basis)  Corn products (corn flour and meal, hominy and grits, corn starch)  Oat products (rolled oats, ready-to-eat oat cereals, oat flour, and oat bran)  Barley products (barley flour, pearl barley, barley malt and malt extract used in food processing)

Issue 1: Improve loss estimates  Primary → Retail weight (e.g., flour into bread)  Retail → Institutional/consumer level (e.g., bread to supermarket, cafeteria)  Institutional/consumer level (e.g., bread into sandwich)

Issue 1: Sensitivity Analysis Loss ServingsCalories factorconsumed consumed percentdailydaily * **6.4409_____________ *Most recent estimate from 2003 ERS per capita intake data. **Point where daily servings meet the proposed recommendations from the U.S. Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (Aug. 2004) for a 2,200-calorie diet after subtracting 0.6 servings for popcorn and other grains not included in the food supply system.

Issue 2: Whole grains & some other data gaps  The food supply data system does not identify the whole-grain share of the available grain supply.  It excludes:  Wheat foods not manufactured directly from wheat flour or bulgur (wheat bran, wheat germ, wheat berries) and products manufactured directly from these items.  Whole-grain foods made directly from field corn (e.g. corn tortilla chips), corn bran, and popcorn.  Many less frequently consumed whole-grain ( amaranth, buckwheat, millet, kamut, quinoa, spelt, and triticale) and flours milled from these grains.

Issue 2: Whole grains & some other data gaps The forthcoming dietary guidelines could recommend Americans on a 2,200-calorie diet consume daily: Grains 7 one-once equivalent servings Whole grains 3.5 one-once equivalent servings Other grains 3.5 one-once equivalent servings Source: Proposed recommended intake from the U.S. Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, Aug

Methodology for Estimating Flour Use The flour produced + imports of flour and products - exports of flour and products Flour use

USDA’s Economic Intelligence System AMS ERS WOAB FAS FSA NASS JAWF INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES

Issue 3: Subset of products included in the trade data Wheat flour and selected products: Item Imports Exports Flour Hard red spring, durum, Wheat flour and semolina white winter, semolina, and flour not elsewhere specified Products Pasta made with eggs, pasta Pasta made with eggs, pasta made without eggs, couscous, made without eggs, couscous and bulgur and bulgur

Issue 4: Nonflour estimate  The ERS estimate of monthly nonflour use (e.g., whole wheat grain added to bread) is assumed to be 2 million bushels per month.  This fixed estimate and the growing U.S. population means that the estimate for the per capita nonflour use of wheat is declining.