BABY-O-MATIC  Guaranteed 100% accuracy 1. Discuss your score with your group 2. Discuss how many children you actually believe you will have 3. Using your ‘Sherlock’ Inferencing Skills – determine what factors will affect the number of children a woman may have in her lifetime.

Answers

Practice  Cartography is study of:  Biology is study of:  Volcanology is study of:  Seismology is study of:  Demography is study of:

Historical Population  What was the world’s population in 1804? 1 billion  What happened in China in 1979? One Child Policy  Examine the world’s population in 1927, 1960, 1974, 1987, 1999 ~ what trend do you notice? Exponential (fast) population growth  Examine the world’s population in 2013, 2028, 2054, 2200 ~ what trend do you notice about projections? Rate of Population Growth is decreasing - (natural increase)

Historical Population Growth

United Nations Population Models

Measuring Population Change  Population change is measured by four basic components:  How many people are born – BIRTH RATE  How many people die – DEATH RATE  How many move into an area – IMMIGRATION RATE  How many move out of a region (EXIT) – EMIGRATION RATE

NATURAL INCREASE  NI = BIRTH RATE – DEATH RATE Canada’s Natural Increase: 10.6 – 7.4 = 3.2 per 1000 (STABLE/CONTRACTING)  Russia’s Natural Increase: 10.8 – 15.1 = (CONTRACTING)  India’s Natural Increase: = 14.5 (EXPANDING)

CENSUS DATA  Every 5-10 years in Canada  Questions for Canada’s population – gives government information to help provide services  Very important Accuracy based on infrastructure, literacy rates, political stability, government freedom, wealth of a country

World Population Density * Crowdedness *

Canada’s Population Density

World’s Largest Cities 1. Tokyo – 37 m 2. Jakarta – 26m 3. Seoul – 22m 4. Dehli 5. Shanghai – 20m 10. Mexico – 19m

POPULATION FACTS The world’s population growth pattern has been exponential; it is increasing at a rapid pace that can seem uncontrollable at times. Why the explosion in population growth? The number of people (death rate) is decreasing due to better medical care Birth rates continue to be high in COUNTRIES THAT STRUGGLE WITH POVERTY however in many newly industrializing countries like India, infant mortality is decreasing. But Surprise! The world’s population growth rate is decreasing on every continent. We reached our peak growth rate around 1950, and our rate of natural increase is decreasing globally.

CANADIAN STATS  Overall Population Density is extremely low  Average Life Expectancy is 81 years old BC – Men 80, Women 84  Rate of Natural Increase is 4.0 (2013)  Population growth rate is highest of all G8 countries – 2/3 of growth rate is from immigration – important to support aging population of BABY BOOMERS

BRAINSTORM

Why Do Some Countries Have Large Populations and Other Small?  Career Prospects  Birth rates  Death Rates  Health Care  ‘Need for Children’ – poverty  Education levels  Women’s Rights  Infant Mortality Rate  Rural living – more workers needed to collect water, etc.  Sons bring wealth, dowries, etc.  Sense of community AGE THAT WOMEN HAVE THEIR FIRST CHILD IS EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT - LONGER PROLONGED, LOWER POPULATION RATES

The Demographic Transition Model (CP pg 324) A theory that explains how populations will change. According to this theory, a population will pass through 5 stages.

Age Pyramid Review – Early Expanding CONCAVE SHAPE High Birth Rates High Death Rates Populations are not extremely high because of death rates Short life expectancy  Congo (51), Afghanistan (61), Sierra Leone (48)

Age Pyramid Review – Expanding  Typical PYRAMID shape  High Birth Rates  Death Rates are starting to lower – increased health care  Generally large populations  Slightly longer life expectancies  India, Mexico

Age Pyramid Review – Stable  Often looks like a ‘house’  Relatively straight sides  Birth rates significantly lower  Death Rates significantly lower – strong health care  Much larger elderly population  Population can sustain itself  USA, France

Age Pyramid Review – Contracting  Bottom is extremely small  Very low birth rate  Low death rate  Large population of elderly people  Needs immigration to sustain its population with labour force  Japan, Germany, Canada

Prediction Questions  Which pyramid type has a “shrinking” population? CONTRACTING  Which pyramid type has the highest birth and death rates? EARLY EXPANDING  Which pyramids do you think have the highest standard of living? STABLE/CONTRACTING  Which pyramid do you think is most likely to represent Brazil or India? EXPANDING  Which pyramid do you think represents Afghanistan or Congo? EARLY EXPANDING  Which pyramid has the largest number of people under 15, and people over 64? EXPANDING DEPENDENCY RATIO – MOST PEOPLE TO TAKE CARE OF

AGE PYRAMID - CANADA

Pyramids Tell a Story

Germany’s Age Pyramid

What makes populations shift through different stages?

Now match it up to Pyramids… *** This is a spectrum..with space in between different stages

What Does Your Pyramid Look Like?  Be prepared to explain your pyramid to me! Include at least 5 age cohorts….  What are your country’s “prospects for the future”?  Ensure is complete ~ worth 5 marks

Population Issues: pg  Review text pages ~ HW ~ read well and take notes in order to complete next day’s assignment.