Climate Commons Stephanie B. Ohshita Ass’t Professor, USF Dept. of Environmental Science Guest Lecture in ENVA March 2005

Overview  A few points on climate science  Defining the climate commons  Institutions that shape human responses to climate change  Negotiating international responses: stories from Buenos Aires to Beijing  The Kyoto Protocol and beyond

Climate Science Increased emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) from human activities (e.g., burning fuel)  Rising atmospheric concentrations of GHGs  Greater trapping of heat (infrared radiation) and rising temperatures  Impacts: melting of polar icecaps, rising sea level, changes in rainfall and storm patterns, coral bleaching, disruption of ecosystems...

The Greenhouse Effect

Projected Temperature Increase (ºC, annual average, for IPCC SRES scenario A2)

Climate Impacts Are Happening Now!  More than 1/3 of coral reefs worldwide have died due to temperature increase and pollution.  Recent heat waves have caused record numbers of deaths.  Tundra is thawed longer, preventing the movement of oil equipment.  The timing of bird migrations and insect lifecycles has shifted, resulting in starvation.

Defining the Climate Commons  “atmospheric commons”  clarification on “commons” -- a socially regulated space, with clear rights and responsibilities (Athanasiou & Baer)  Hardin actually talking about “open access regimes” without rules: The Tragedy of Unregulated Open Access Resources  can view the climate challenge as one of specifying property rights, preferably public, and rules for the atmospheric commons

Other Views of the Climate Commons  a matter of energy, more than environment, since main source of GHG emissions is energy consumption  a matter of economic development, more than environment, since energy use is crucial for the economy  a matter of equity, more than environment, since the distribution of emissions and impacts is unequal

The 3Es (+1) of Climate Energy Environment Economy Economy affected by costs of climate change damages and mitigation. Climatic disruptions (e.g. storms, species loss) due to fossil fuel consumption. Economic development influenced by energy pricing and availability. Energy consumption influenced by economic activity, investment in cleaner technologies. Energy consumption influenced by changing climate and mitigation efforts. Extent of climate change damages influenced by investment in mitigation. Equity

CO 2 Emissions

Per Capita CO 2 Emissions

Energy Consumption

Overview  A few points on climate science  Defining the climate commons  Institutions that shape human responses to climate change  Negotiating international responses: stories from Buenos Aires to Beijing  The Kyoto Protocol and beyond

UN Climate Institutions

More Climate Institutions  Int’l: UNFCCC, IPCC, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank  Nat’l: Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Economy, Trade, Industry, Environment  Sub-nat’l: States, municipalities  For-Profit: multi-national corporations  Non-Profit: Pew Center, Sky Trust, etc.

Structure of the Kyoto Protocol  based on historical distributions of emissions  “common but differentiated responsibilities”  focuses on emission reduction targets for some (Annex I Parties)  Timeframe: 1st Commitment Period  three flexibility mechanisms: Emissions Trading (ET) Joint Implementation (JI) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Kyoto Targets

Negotiating Climate Responses  Coalition of the willing (EU, Japan, NZ)  Coalition of developing countries (G77, China, India)  Looking to leverage (Russia, Pakistan)  Coalition of oil and coal (OPEC states, US, Australia)

China 3Es: Interests and Trends  Economic Development: Economic Growth, Industrial Modernization, Market Development  Environment: Improve Water, Air, and Waste; SO 2 (not CO 2 ) of Main Concern  Energy: Improve Efficiency and Reduce Pollution; Coal Dominant; Growth in Electricity, Oil, Natural Gas

China’s Stance on Climate Change  International: “Two-Front Diplomacy” (1) No Commitment; Industrialized Nations Responsible; Push for Technology and Funds (2) Interaction of Energy and Environment Bureaucracies with International Community  Domestic: Actions Without Climate Policy Energy and Economic Reforms Improved Energy Efficiency Growth in CO 2 Emissions Slowed

Japan 3Es: Interests and Trends  Economic Development: Recover From Economic Slump; Improve Financial Institutions  Environment: Climate Change Prominent; Also Smog, Dioxin, Waste  Energy: Diversify Supply; Conserve; Promote Renewables

Japan’s Stance on Climate Change  International: Walking a Fine Line Invested in Kyoto Protocol, But Pressure From US, Others Pursuing Clean Development Mechanism  Domestic: Past Achievements, Present Challenges Must Reduce Growth in Residential, Transport Emissions Despite High Profile, Climate Change Policy Has Few Concrete Actions

COP10, Buenos Aires

COP10 Plenary Session

COP10 Side Event: Asia

COP10 Side Event: Equity

COP10 EU Pavilion

Asian Developing Countries’ View “Though India,like other developing countries, has not taken specific commitments to mitigate CO 2 emissions, it is making progress in this direction” through energy price reform, energy sector deregulation, and promotion of energy efficiency and renewables. US demands for developing country commitments willfully ignore these signs of progress. --Rajendra Pachuri, President of Tata Energy Research, Chair of IPCC (Worldwatch 2002)

Beyond Kyoto  More emphasis on sustainable development  Greater attention to equity concerns in the “atmospheric commons”  Possible “orchestra of treaties” Energy efficiency treaty Renewable energy treaty Carbon sequestration treaty Zero emissions treaty