Energy Everywhere Explained: Importance of Energy Conservation and Renewable and Alternative Energy Resources NIU SET House April 19, 2007 & April 23, 2008 Prof. M. Kostic Mechanical Engineering NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Everywhere … “From the sovereign Sun to the deluge of photons out of the astounding compaction and increase of power-density in computer chips … www.kostic.niu.edu
Global Energy and Future: Importance of Energy Conservation and Renewable and Alternative Energy Resources Solar 1.37 kW/m2, but only 12% over-all average 165 W/m2 2000 kcal/day100 Watt World about 6.3 billion 2,213 Watt/c 287 Wel /c USA about 0.287 billion 11,342 Watt/c 1,535 Wel /c www.kostic.niu.edu
Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for next 50 years ENERGY (critical for the rest nine) Water Food Environment Poverty Terrorism & War Disease Education Democracy Population 2006: 6.5 Billion People 2050: 8-10 Billion ( 1010 ) People www.kostic.niu.edu
What Are We Waiting For? (1) An Energy Crisis ? (2) A Global Environmental Problem? (3) An Asian Technology Boom? or Leadership www.kostic.niu.edu
The biggest single challenge for the next few decades by 2050 (1) ENERGY for 1010 people (2) At MINIMUM we need additional 10 TeraWatts (150 Mill. BOE/day) from some new clean energy source We simply can not do this with current technology! We need Leadership www.kostic.niu.edu
The two things are certain (1) the world population and their living-standard expectations will substantially increase (over 6 billion people now, in 50 years 10-11 billion - energy may double) (2) fossil fuels’ economical reserves, particularly oil and natural gas, will substantially decrease (oil may run out in 30-50 years) www.kostic.niu.edu
Population & Energy: Unrestricted Exponential Growth About one million years ago our own species, homo sapiens, first appeared, strived most of the history and boomed with agricultural and industrial revolution. We are over 6 billion now. Standard of living and energy use have been growing almost exponentially due to abundance of resources. The growth will be naturally restricted with overpopulation and resource depletion as we know it. The Growth Curve Time in history Population in millions Most of BC history 10 due to hardship AD 1 300 1750 760 1800 1,000 1950 2,500 2000 6,000 www.kostic.niu.edu
Earth Energy Balance: All energy to Earth surface is 99.98 % solar, 0.02% geothermal, and 0.002% tidal-gravitational. About 14 TW world energy consumption rate now (0.008% of solar striking Earth) is about 6 times smaller than global photosynthesis (all life), the latter is only 0.05% of total solar, and global atmospheric water and wind are about 1% of solar. Source: Basic Research Needs To Assure A Secure Energy Future, ORNL Report, 2003 www.kostic.niu.edu
% W/m2 144% www.kostic.niu.edu
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EEE-Global & Physics articles More Encyclopedia Articles www.kostic.niu.edu
Material system structure and related forces and energies www.kostic.niu.edu
ENERGY Property and Transfer/Exchange "... Energy is the ‘‘building block’’ and fundamental property of matter and space and, thus, the fundamental property of existence. Energy exchanges or transfers are associated with all processes (or changes) and, thus, are indivisible from time." www.kostic.niu.edu
Hubber’s Peak: A short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), www.kostic.niu.edu
Some Headlines…: It took World 125 years to consume the first trillion barrels of oil – the next trillion will be consumed in 30 years. The World consumes two barrels of oil for every barrel discovered. Only “Human Power” can deliver MORE energy with LOWER emission www.kostic.niu.edu
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The challenges facing us… Economic Competitiveness Environmental Pollution Growing Petroleum Consumption Let me quickly summarize a few of the challenges facing us challenges made more acute by the burgeoning demand for energy worldwide. Growing Petroleum Consumption Demand for petroleum has grown steadily during the 1990s. Worldwide, Year 2000 petroleum demand is expected to approach 78 million barrels per day, up from 67 million barrels per day in 1993, for an annualized growth rate of about 2 percent per year. Rapid growth among the world’s developing nations means competition may greatly increase for petroleum on the world market. Environmental Pollution As the world’s population and demand for energy continues to accelerate, environmental pollution in much of the world continues to worsen. From Bangkok to Mexico City, communities and regions are realizing the adverse impacts of pollution, much of it due to energy to propel transportation vehicles and power generation to run factories and buildings. In the United States, despite notable improvements in many areas, the Environmental Protection Agency still estimates that in 1998, over 113 million people lived in areas not meeting National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Economic Competitiveness As the number of developing nations grows, world economic activity and the demand for energy systems continues to increase. A vital component of the economic competitiveness of advanced nations is the development and use of highly efficient, clean, cost-effective energy systems. www.kostic.niu.edu
Oil consumption by U.S. transportation continues to grow Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0383(2002), Dec 2001 Automobiles Light Trucks Heavy Trucks Air Domestic Production Projected Actual Million barrels per day Passenger Vehicles Shipping Rail Off-Road Military Transportation accounts for 2/3 of the 20 million barrels of oil our nation uses each day. The U.S. imports 55% of its oil, expected to grow to 68% by 2025 under the status quo. Nearly all of our cars and trucks currently run on either gasoline or diesel fuel. www.kostic.niu.edu
Major fraction of the world’s oil reserves is in the OPEC countries 26% 12% 2% 7% 41% The issues associated with concentration of oil reserves are just not that important for most of us. This slide illustrates the breakdown of world oil reserves, production, and consumption – reserves being the oil that can be profitably extracted at today’s prices, as compared to resources which is the total amount of oil in the ground. This slide does not illustrate a comforting picture. As you can see, the preponderance of the world’s oil reserves are controlled by OPEC nations. Not only that, but OPEC nations are producing a relatively smaller amount of oil in comparison to their reserves than the rest of the world. The United States continues to consume 26 percent of the world’s oil, with only 2 percent of the world’s reserves. 77% 67% 47% 21% Source: DOE/EIA, International Petroleum Statistics Reports, April 1999; DOE/EIA 0520, International Energy Annual 1997, DOE/EIA0219(97), February 1999. www.kostic.niu.edu
World automobile population is expected to grow substantially The number of worldwide automobile and truck registrations is expected to grow tremendously in future years*. Here’s the situation in industrialized countries – a doubling between now and 2050.* Developing nations like China and India are expected to experience an explosion in the number of vehicles. *Over the next 50 years, the number of vehicles worldwide is projected to grow from 670 million to over 3.5 billion. Source: OTT Analytic Team www.kostic.niu.edu
Vehicle Energy Distribution www.kostic.niu.edu
World Energy Use 1 TWyr=31.56 EJ=5.89 bbl 85% fossil 2050: 30 TW Hoffert et al Nature 395, 883,1998 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 1970 1990 2010 2030 TW-yrs World Energy Demand total industrial developing US ee/fsu World Fuel Mix 2001 oil gas coal nucl renew EIA Intl Energy Outlook 2004 85% fossil Projections of world energy demand by Energy Information Administration • units are Terawatt-yrs of energy, equivalent to continuous use, day and night, of power over one year • industrial countries use about half the world’s energy • US about half industrial countries • developing countries responsible for largest growth, nearly equal to industrial countries in 2025 • EIA projections are consistent with other studies, notably Hoffert • fuel mix is 85% fossil, 39% oil • mix is projected to be approximately constant to 2025, with gas surpassing coal by 2025, oil remaining at 39% 1 TWyr=31.56 EJ=5.89 bbl www.kostic.niu.edu
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About 20% About 0.2 % www.kostic.niu.edu
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about 50% efficiency about 20% efficiency about 33% efficiency www.kostic.niu.edu
46% of 6% =2.8 % www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Challenges: Supply Hubbert’s Peak when will production peak? 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 bbl/yr 10 20 30 40 50 World Oil Production 2016 2037 2% demand growth ultimate recovery: 3000 bbl production peak supply falls short of demand oil becomes precious price increases global tension EIA: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/ presentations/long_term_supply/index.htm • two challenges of fossil fuel: finite supply and atmospheric contamination • the curve of world oil production tells us a lot about the fossil fuel economy • it began about 1900 and reached its stride at mid-century • the oil shortage of the mid 70s and the high oil prices around 1980 stimulated a downturn in production/use • the first fossil fuel challenge is the finite supply of oil • the question is not when will the supply run out, but when it will fall short of demand • historically and in the near future, supply meets demand and the curve of production is also the curve of demand • at some time, production will peak, while demand continues to rise. This marks a transition point in the oil economy when chronic shortages occur, prices rise, and the world market could become qualitatively different. This is the “Hubbert’s peak” that some analysts think will drive major revisions of our cultural expectations for energy and especially transportation. • the graphs shows two projections of the EIA for oil production: satisfy demand until 2016 and have face moderate shortages after, or satisfy demand until 2037 and face more severe shortages after. Since reserves are fixed, we are faced with this devil’s dilemma. • the projections show in either case that by 2050 we will be producing less oil than we are now, less than half of demand. That will be major change in our energy economy, as other sources of energy fill the gap or as we simply live with less energy. • these projections do not take into account the effect of rising prices on reserves: at a higher price, oil that cannot be produced now becomes accessible. This elasticity in reserves effectively trades shortages for cost. The market determines how this plays out and it is not possible to project the magnitude of this effect with confidence. • there is less quantitative information about natural gas reserves, and far less analysis of its production expectations. The projections we have indicate that its production will peak beyond oil. • the world and the US have plentiful coal reserves, enough to last at least 200 years under projected use. • the second challenge of fossil fuels is atmospheric pollution. Greenhouse gases and specifically CO2 are widely thought to produce global warming with major changes in the ocean currents, the climate of the earth, and rising sea levels. • the graph shows the correlation between CO2 in the atmosphere and mean global temperature since 1000 AD. There is a noticeable correlation. The effect has accelerated in the past 100 years and both quantities continue to rise at ever increasing slope. • unlike finite fossil fuel supply, which creates problems in the future, CO2 emissions and global warming are problems that are already in progress. They are cumulative effects, with today’s conditions dependent on all the CO2 we have put into the atmosphere for the last century and more. There is an urgency to this problem that may equal or exceed that of fossil fuel supply. Effects are noticeable: there is far less polar ice at the North Pole than in previous decades, often allowing ships to steam directly over the pole, glaciers are receding, and Hemingway’s famous Snows of Kilimanjaro have nearly disappeared. • the solution is to capture and store the CO2 emissions that we produce. It is unlikely that we will opt not to use our fossil fuel reserves as long as they last, so we must find ways to use them without emitting CO2. Creating a viable route to accomplish this is a major scientific challenge. 1 TWyr = 31.56 EJ = 5.89 bbl Oil: 30-50 yrs? gas: beyond oil? coal: > 200 yrs? find alternate sources nuclear renewable Distinguish between “Estimated” (above) and “Proven” reserves (next slide) www.kostic.niu.edu
World now: 13 TWyr /yr 410 EJ/yr About 88 years: 60 coal, 14 oil, and 14 gas. Distinguish between “Proven” (above) and “Estimated” reserves www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Challenges: Local/Regional Pollution the six principal air pollutants (not including CO2) acid rain origin secondary effect hazard SOx impurities in fuel acid rain particilates health, crops corrosion NOx high T combustion in air particulates ozone, health CO incomplete combustion health, reduced O2 delivery Particulates combustion sunlight + NOx/SOx Pb chemical industry ground ozone sunlight + NOx + organics respiratoryvegetation pollution zones near sources urban areas, power plants www.kostic.niu.edu
So, what are we going to do? Do we need CASH for ALCOHOL research? www.kostic.niu.edu
The energy “difficulties” … (1) will be more challenging than what we anticipate now (2) NO traditional solutions (3) New knowledge, new technology, and new living habits and expectations will be needed www.kostic.niu.edu
Nanotechnology potentials … Enabling Nanotech Revolution(s) Nanotech to the rescue … (1) Nano multifunctional materials (2) Nano electronics & super-computers (3) Nano sensors & actuators (4) Nano devices & robotics (5) Nano photovoltaics & photocatalitics (6) Nano super-conductors (adv. transmission and el. motors) (7) Nano energy-storage (adv. batteries & hydrogen) (8) Nano bio-materials (synthetic fuels, pharmaceuticals, …) Some examples: Armchair Wire Project: electrical conductivity of copper at 1/6 the weight with negligible eddy currents Single Crystal Fullerene Nanotube Arrays … (Etc.) www.kostic.niu.edu
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The renewable biomass energy and development of synthetic hydro-carbons … The renewable biomass energy (BM) and development of synthetic hydro-carbons (SynHC) will be very important if not critical for substitution of fossil fuels… … since they are natural extensions of fossil fuels, the existing energy infrastructure could be easily adapted global CO2 emission will be balanced during renewable biomass production. BM&SynHC particularly promising for energy storage and use in transportation to replace fossil fuels, www.kostic.niu.edu
Hydrogen versus Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons … … especially considering the Hydrogen facts: (1) hydrogen does not exist in nature as primary energy source (2) hydrogen production (from hydrocarbons or water) is energy inefficient (always net-negative, energy storage only) (3) hydrogen storage and distribution are facing a host of problems that cannot be economically resolved with present state of knowledge www.kostic.niu.edu
Hydrogen versus Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons (2) Instead of going ‘against’ the nature with hydrogen … H H-H H-C-… H … we should go ‘along’ with nature with biomass energy and development of synthetic hydro-carbons. www.kostic.niu.edu
The Hydrogen Economy: Challenges and Opportunities George Crabtree Senior Scientist and Director Materials Science Division Northern Illinois University November 5, 2004 the hydrogen economy requires breakthrough basic research to find new materials and processes incremental advances in the present state of the art will not meet the challenge Argonne National Laboratory A U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Laboratory Operated by The University of Chicago U.S. Department of Energy www.kostic.niu.edu
Hydro and Biomass & Waste www.kostic.niu.edu
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Biomass and Biorefinery Summary: Biomass is the only sustainable source of hydrocarbon-based fuels, petrochemicals, and plastics Large national and world-wide biomass resource base Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Will diversify and reinvigorate rural economy Bio-refineries utilize residue from existing industry www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…) www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…) www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…) www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…) www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…) www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…) www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…) www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…) www.kostic.niu.edu
Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…) www.kostic.niu.edu
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Dr. Romesh Kumar, Chemical Engineering Division Thanks (for sharing their presentations with me) to: Dr. George Crabtree, Materials Science Division Dr. Romesh Kumar, Chemical Engineering Division Argonne National Laboratory A number of Data Slides are taken from: Energy in World History by V. Smil (Westwiew Press, Inc., 1994) www.kostic.niu.edu
More information at: www.kostic.niu.edu/energy Solar 1.37 kW/m2, but only 12% over-all average 165 W/m2 2000 kcal/day100 Watt World Prod. 2,200 Watt/p 275 Welec/p USA Prod. 12,000 Watt/p 1500 Welec/p www.kostic.niu.edu