1. www.kostic.niu.edu Energy Future Outlook: Importance of Renewable Biomass Energy and Bio-Energy Research Prof. M. Kostic Mechanical Engineering NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY NIU & Growth Dimensions AgTech Initiative: Future of Energy and Agriculture Belvidere, IL * April 27, 2005

2. www.kostic.niu.edu Energy Future Outlook: Importance of Renewable Biomass Energy and Bio-Energy Research 2000 kcal/day  100 Watt USA about 0.3 billion 12,000 Watt/p 1500 W el /p World over 6 billion 2,200 Watt/p 275 W el /p 1.37 kW/m 2 ·12%  165 W/m 2

3. www.kostic.niu.edu The two things are certain (1) the world population and their living-standard expectations will substantially increase (over 6 billion people now, in 50 years 10-11 billion - energy may double)(1) the world population and their living-standard expectations will substantially increase (over 6 billion people now, in 50 years 10-11 billion - energy may double) (2) fossil fuels’ economical reserves, particularly oil and natural gas, will substantially decrease (oil may run out in 30-50 years)(2) fossil fuels’ economical reserves, particularly oil and natural gas, will substantially decrease (oil may run out in 30-50 years)

4. www.kostic.niu.edu Population & Energy: Unrestricted Exponential Growth About one million years ago our own species, homo sapiens, first appeared, strived most of the history and boomed with agricultural and industrial revolution. We are over 6 billion now.About one million years ago our own species, homo sapiens, first appeared, strived most of the history and boomed with agricultural and industrial revolution. We are over 6 billion now. Standard of living and energy use have been growing almost exponentially due to abundance of resources.Standard of living and energy use have been growing almost exponentially due to abundance of resources. The growth will be naturally restricted with overpopulation and resource depletion as we know it.The growth will be naturally restricted with overpopulation and resource depletion as we know it. Time in history Population in millions Most of BC history 10 due to hardship AD 1300 1750760 18001,000 19502,500 20006,000

5. www.kostic.niu.edu Earth Energy Balance: All energy to Earth surface is 99.98 % solar, 0.02% geothermal, and 0.002% tidal-gravitational. About 13 TW world energy consumption rate now (0.007% of solar striking Earth) is about 7 times smaller than global photosynthesis (all life), the latter is only 0.05% of total solar, and global atmospheric water and wind are about 1% of solar. Source: Basic Research Needs To Assure A Secure Energy Future, ORNL Report, 2003

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8. The challenges facing us… Economic Competitiveness Environmental Pollution Growing Petroleum Consumption

9. www.kostic.niu.edu Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0383(2002), Dec 2001 Automobiles Light Trucks Heavy Trucks Air Domestic Production Projected Actual Million barrels per day Passenger Vehicles Shipping Rail Off-Road Military Transportation accounts for 2/3 of the 20 million barrels of oil our nation uses each day. The U.S. imports 55% of its oil, expected to grow to 68% by 2025 under the status quo. Nearly all of our cars and trucks currently run on either gasoline or diesel fuel. Oil consumption by U.S. transportation continues to grow

10. www.kostic.niu.edu Source: DOE/EIA, International Petroleum Statistics Reports, April 1999; DOE/EIA 0520, International Energy Annual 1997, DOE/EIA0219(97), February 1999. 2% 12% 26% 7% 41% 77% 67% 47% 21% Major fraction of the world’s oil reserves is in the OPEC countries

11. www.kostic.niu.edu Source: OTT Analytic Team World automobile population is expected to grow substantially

12. www.kostic.niu.edu World Energy Use World Fuel Mix 2001 oil gas coal nucl renew EIA Intl Energy Outlook 2004 85% fossil 2100: 46 TW 2050: 30 TW Hoffert et al Nature 395, 883,1998 1 TWyr=31.56 EJ=5.89 bbl

13. www.kostic.niu.edu Energy Challenges: Supply find alternate sources nuclear renewable EIA: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/ presentations/long_term_supply/index.htm 1900 1950 20002050 2100 bbl/yr 10 20 30 40 50 World Oil Production 2016 2037 2% demand growth ultimate recovery: 3000 bbl Hubbert’s Peak when will production peak? Oil: 30-50 yrs? gas: beyond oil? coal: > 200 yrs? production peak supply falls short of demand oil becomes precious price increases global tension Distinguish between “Estimated” (above) and “Proven” reserves (next slide) 1 TWyr = 31.56 EJ = 5.89 bbl

14. www.kostic.niu.edu World now: 13 TWyr /yr  410 EJ/yr About 88 years: 60 coal, 14 oil, and 14 gas. Distinguish between “Proven” (above) and “Estimated” reserves

15. www.kostic.niu.edu Energy Challenges: Local/Regional Pollution the six principal air pollutants (not including CO 2 ) origin secondary effect hazard SOx impurities in fuel acid rain particilates health, crops corrosion NOx high T combustion in air particulates ozone, acid rain health CO incomplete combustion health, reduced O 2 delivery Particulatescombustion sunlight + NOx/SOx health Pb chemical industryhealth ground ozone sunlight + NOx + organics respiratory vegetation pollution zones near sources urban areas, power plants acid rain

16. www.kostic.niu.edu So, what are we going to do?

17. www.kostic.niu.edu The energy “difficulties” … (1) will be more challenging than what we anticipate now(1) will be more challenging than what we anticipate now (2) NO traditional solutions(2) NO traditional solutions (3) New knowledge, new technology, and new living habits and expectations will be needed(3) New knowledge, new technology, and new living habits and expectations will be needed

18. www.kostic.niu.edu The renewable biomass energy and development of synthetic hydro-carbons … The renewable biomass energy (BM) and development of will be very important if not critical for substitution of fossil fuels…The renewable biomass energy (BM) and development of synthetic hydro-carbons (SynHC) will be very important if not critical for substitution of fossil fuels… … since they are of fossil fuels, the existing energy infrastructure could be easily adapted… since they are natural extensions of fossil fuels, the existing energy infrastructure could be easily adapted global during renewable biomass production.global CO 2 emission will be balanced during renewable biomass production. BM&SynHC particularly for energy storage and use in transportation to replace fossil fuels,BM&SynHC particularly promising for energy storage and use in transportation to replace fossil fuels,

19. www.kostic.niu.edu The renewable biomass energy and development of synthetic hydro-carbons … … especially considering the Hydrogen facts: (1) as primary energy source(1) hydrogen does not exist in nature as primary energy source (2) (from hydrocarbons or water) is (always net-negative, energy storage only)(2) hydrogen production (from hydrocarbons or water) is energy inefficient (always net-negative, energy storage only) (3) are facing a that cannot be economically resolved with present state of knowledge(3) hydrogen storage and distribution are facing a host of problems that cannot be economically resolved with present state of knowledge

20. www.kostic.niu.edu The renewable biomass energy and development of synthetic hydro-carbons … Instead of going ‘against’ the nature with hydrogen … H H-H H-C-… H … we should go ‘’ with nature with biomass energy and development of synthetic hydro-carbons. … we should go ‘along’ with nature with biomass energy and development of synthetic hydro-carbons.

21. www.kostic.niu.edu George Crabtree Senior Scientist and Director Materials Science Division Northern Illinois University November 5, 2004 The Hydrogen Economy: The Hydrogen Economy: Challenges and Opportunities A U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Laboratory Operated by The University of Chicago Argonne National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy the hydrogen economy requires breakthrough basic research to find new materials and processes incremental advances in the present state of the art will not meet the challenge

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23. about 20% efficiency about 75% efficiency about 50% efficiency about 33% efficiency

24. www.kostic.niu.edu 2.8 % 46% of 6% =2.8 %

25. www.kostic.niu.edu Biomass and Waste

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34. Biomass and Biorefinery Summary: Biomass is the only sustainable source of hydrocarbon-based fuels, petrochemicals, and plasticsBiomass is the only sustainable source of hydrocarbon-based fuels, petrochemicals, and plastics Large national and world-wide biomass resource baseLarge national and world-wide biomass resource base Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Will diversify and reinvigorate rural economyWill diversify and reinvigorate rural economy Bio-refineries utilize residue from existing industryBio-refineries utilize residue from existing industry

35. www.kostic.niu.edu Energy Future Outlook: …a probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’ abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following energy future outlook is possible… 1.Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’ era) 2.Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and life) 3.Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary energy needs 4.Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry at global scale (to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing efficiency) 5.Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher order of magnitude) and large potentials, particularly in industry (also in transportation, commercial and residential sectors) 6.Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals) 7.Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries, hydrogen,…) 8.Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill in the gap…)

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37. Thanks (for sharing their presentations with me) to: Dr. George Crabtree, Thanks (for sharing their presentations with me) to: Dr. George Crabtree, Materials Science Division Dr. Romesh Kumar Dr. Romesh Kumar, Chemical Engineering Division Argonne National Laboratory

38. www.kostic.niu.edu More information at: www.kostic.niu.edu/energy 2000 kcal/day  100 Watt World Prod. 2,200 Watt/p 275 W elec /p USA Prod. 12,000 Watt/p 1500 W elec /p 1.37 kW/m 2 ·12%  165 W/m 2