1 Global Change: Greenhouse Gases Environmental Sustainability Educational Resources prepared by Gregory A. Keoleian Associate Research Scientist, School of Natural Resources and Environment Co-Director, Center for Sustainable Systems University of Michigan

2 Contents Human Impact on Global Climate [slide 4] Greenhouse Effect [slide 5] Global Warming Potentials [slide 6] 1998 GHG Emissions in U.S. [slide 7] Trends in U.S. GHG Emissions, 1990–1998[slide 8] Carbon Dioxide (non-energy related) Emissions[slide 9] Methane Emissions[slide 10] Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emissions[slide 11] Perfluorocarbons (PFC’s) Emissions[slide 12] Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Emissions [slide 13]

3 Total Energy Related Carbon Emissions for Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1994[slide 14] CO2 Emissions per Capita for Selected Countries[slide 15] Global Atmospheric Concentration of CO2[slides ] CO2 & Temperature Relationships (Historical) [slides ] GHG Emissions (Projected) [slide 20] Carbon Emissions by Region 1997[slide 20] Carbon Emissions by Region 2020[slide 21] Potential Climate Change Impacts [slide 22] –Temperature [slides 23-25] –Sea level [slides 26-27] Policy: Kyoto Protocol [slides ] Additional Resources[slide 30]

4 Human Impact on Global Climate “The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate” IPCC 1995

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6 Global Warming Potentials (100 year time horizon)

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8 Trends in U.S. GHG Emissions, 1990–1998

9 Carbon Dioxide (non-energy related) Emissions Cement manufacture –calcium carbonate is heated to produce lime –In 1998, the United States manufactured an estimated 85.5 million metric tons of cement, resulting in the direct release of carbon dioxide containing about 10.6 million metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere.

10 Methane Emissions Energy production and consumption –coal mining –natural gas systems Waste management –landfill gas Agriculture –manure management –cattle (enteric fermentation) –rice cultivation

11 Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emissions Agricultural soil management –nitrogen fertilization Mobile sources Adipic acid production –used to make nylon

12 Perfluorocarbons (PFC’s) Aluminum production –perfloromethane (CF4) GWP = 6500 –perfloroethane (C2F6) GWP = 9200

13 Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Emissions Insulator for electrical equipment Fugitive emission from semiconductor manufacture Cover gas for magnesium production –prevents the oxidation of molten magnesium in presence of air

14 Total Energy Related Carbon Emissions for Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1994

15 Carbon Emissions per Capita for Selected Countries

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18 Expected Consequences of GHG Concentration Increases Temperature: Global temperatures are rising. Observations collected over the last century suggest that the average land surface temperature has risen °C ( °F) in the last century.

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20 Carbon Emissions by Region 1997 (6175 Million Metric Tons Carbon)

21 Carbon Emissions by Region 2020 (10,009 Million Metric Tons Carbon)

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23 Predictions of future temperature Since 1979, scientists have generally agreed that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide increases the earth’s average surface temperature by °C (3-8°F).

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25 New Temperature Projections The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8ºC over the period 1990 to Source: Shanghai Draft IPCC WGI THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT

26 Sea Level Sea level has risen worldwide approximately cm (6-8 inches) in the last century. Approximately 2-5 cm (1-2 inches) of the rise has resulted from the melting of mountain glaciers. Another 2-7 cm has resulted from the expansion of ocean water that resulted from warmer ocean temperatures.

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28 Kyoto Protocol Framework –stabilize greenhouse gas emissions to prevent anthropogenic interference with the climate system –emission targets for industrialized countries between are collectively about 5% lower than 1990 emissions US target is 7% reduction developing countries do not have quantified targets –six gases CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6

29 The Protocol is subject to ratification, acceptance, approval or accession by Parties to the Convention. –It shall enter into force on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Annex I Parties which accounted in total for at least 55 % of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 from that group, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.

30 Additional Resources Global Change Courses at the University of Michigan –Introduction to Global Change (AOSS 171/172) –