CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006.

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Presentation transcript:

CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006

CNRFC Operations 11 Weather offices 11 Weather offices 220 Basins modeled 220 Basins modeled 87 Flood Forecast Points 87 Flood Forecast Points Partners: Calif. DWR Partners: Calif. DWR Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15 Season: Oct. 15 – Apr Reservoir Inflow Points 50 Reservoir Inflow Points Partners: COE & BUREC Partners: COE & BUREC Season: year-round Season: year-round 50 Water Supply Points 50 Water Supply Points Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1 Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1

CNRFC Staff Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) 4 Senior Hydrologists 4 Senior Hydrologists 3 Hydrologists 3 Hydrologists 1 Senior HAS Forecasters 1 Senior HAS Forecasters 2 HAS Forecasters 2 HAS Forecasters Administrative Assistant Administrative Assistant

CNRFC Hydrologic Products Flash Flood Guidance Flood Forecast Guidance Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Spring Snow Melt Forecasts Water Supply Volume Short Range … … … … … … Long Range

Flood Forecasting Operations QPFRiver Forecasts

Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure ESP Operational Forecast System Calibration System

Primary NWSRFS Models Rain-Snow Elevation Rain-Snow Elevation Snow-17 Snow-17 Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Unit Hydrograph Unit Hydrograph Reservoir Models Reservoir Models River Routing Models River Routing Models

NWSRFS Models Rain-Snow Elevation Snowfall Rainfall

NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 Conceptual Model of Physical Processes Conceptual Model of Physical Processes Models a Column of Snow Models a Column of Snow - Accumulation of Snow Cover - Surface Energy Exchange - Snow Cover ‘Ripening’ - Ground Heat Exchange - Transmission of Liquid Water Input = Air Temperature & Precip. Input = Air Temperature & Precip. Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Extent of Snow Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Extent of Snow

NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 WY 1986 SJ River

NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycle Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycle Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Cover Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Cover Output = Inflow to the channel system Output = Inflow to the channel system

SAC-SMA

NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA WY 1986 SJ River

NWSRFS Models Actual Inflow (FOLC1) Observed (w): hourly data Simulated (p): 6-hourly (with reservoir outflows)

NWSRFS Models River Routing Example

NWSRFS Models Reservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)

NWSRFS Models Tidal Example (Rio Vista)

Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure ESP Operational Forecast System Calibration System

Operational Flood Forecasting HAS DataSystems precip / temp / flow RiverForecastSystem QPF Forecast Temp Hydrologist Soil, snow & routing parameters hydrologic expertise River Forecast Guidance Rain/Snow Elevations Model Calibration

Operational Flood Forecasting DataSystems Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Model Calibration

Precipitation Data Quality Control

Gage Catch Issues Wind Wind Snow Snow Instrumentation (double tipping) Instrumentation (double tipping) Gage location (vegetation, topography…) Gage location (vegetation, topography…) Vandalism Vandalism

River and Reservoir Data QC Reservoir Inflow Outflow and Storage Hourly Stage & Streamflow Anticipated Reservoir Outflow Automated Filtering & Manual QC

Real-time Forecasting Observed Data Simulated Flow NF American River

Folsom Inflow Real-time Forecasting

Simulated Flow Observed Flow Data San Joaquin River at Newman

Operational Flood Forecasting

DataSystems Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Model Calibration

Interactive Forecast Program River Model

IFP Runtime Modifications

Operational Flood Forecasting HAS DataSystems precip / temp / flow RiverForecastSystem QPF Forecast Temp Hydrologist hydrologic expertise Model Calibration Rain/Snow Elevations Graphical RVF Soil, snow & routing parameters

Graphical River Forecast Guidance Merced River - Pohono Bridge

Graphical RVF Availability 87 official flood forecast points. 87 official flood forecast points. Routine updates. Routine updates. twice per day. twice per day. morning/afternoon. morning/afternoon. Updates during floods. Updates during floods. 8am/2pm/8pm/2am. 8am/2pm/8pm/2am. as needed. as needed. Visible to everyone. Visible to everyone.

Graphical River Forecast Guidance Benefits Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation. Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation. More information is presented than in a text product. More information is presented than in a text product. Longer range guidance for emergency managers. Longer range guidance for emergency managers.

Forecast Value Accuracy Timeliness Forecasting Balancing Timeliness and Accuracy Forecast Lead Time

Graphical River Forecast Guidance Guidance period information has higher uncertainty. Guidance period information has higher uncertainty.  Timing and amount of rainfall forecast.  Rain/snow level forecast.  Unanticipated reservoir regulation will affect downstream forecasts and guidance.

New Website Graphical RVF gov/

New Website Other River Guidance gov/

Review of 2006 Flood Event Folsom Inflow Forecasts Graphs

Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure ESP Operational Forecast System Calibration System

ESP Products Reservoir inflows Reservoir inflows Unregulated rivers Unregulated rivers Extended forecasts Extended forecasts

AHPS – Relevant Products CNRFC implemented AHPS locations CNRFC implemented AHPS locations Started in WY2005 on 70 points Started in WY2005 on 70 points ESP Custom Product Generation

ESP Traces

AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation

CNRFC Development Areas Flood Forecasting Flood Forecasting Dam Break Support Dam Break Support Flash Flood Support Flash Flood Support Water Supply Forecasting Water Supply Forecasting Hourly Hydrologic Modeling Hourly Hydrologic Modeling Website Website

California-Nevada River Forecast Center Thank You