Prepared By Prof Alvin So1 SOSC 188 Lecture 30 The Future of East Asia.

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Presentation transcript:

Prepared By Prof Alvin So1 SOSC 188 Lecture 30 The Future of East Asia

Prepared By Prof Alvin So2 The Transformation of the World-Economy in the past few decades The Possible Fault Lines in Asia The Future of Asia

Prepared By Prof Alvin So3 The Transformation of the World- Economy over the last few decades 3 phases - (1) The Cold War ( s): anti-communism, Korean War/Vietnam War, politics in command, divided nations Three paths of development in East Asia: China into revolutionary communism Japan into a core (the 2 nd largest economy in the world) HK/Taiwan/Singapore/S. Korea into four little dragons (2) Globalization starts at the end of the Cold War (1980s-1990s): economics in command, borderless economy, global production (3) The new era of Anti-terrorism (2000s -): re-strengthening of state boundary, politics in command again

Prepared By Prof Alvin So4 How the transformation affect Asia: possible fault lines (1) The old fault lines of the Cold War remained: How Divided Nations get re-united? Mainland China-Taiwan cross strait tensions (war) North Korea-South Korea tensions (nuclear weapon) (2) The New fault lines in the era of Anti-terrorism & Hegemonic Transitions: the rising power (Germany, US) usually needs to win a war to achieve hegemony China-Japan tensions (shrines, history textbook, territory disputes) due to historical legacy of WWII China-US tensions (competing for oil, market, currency)

Prepared By Prof Alvin So5 The Future of East Asia The Peaceful Rise Scenario: Asia solves all its problems peacefully – a happy ending The Asian century –the center of the world-economy will shift from the West to Asia in the 21st century The War and Downfall scenario: WWIII starts in Asia (China/Russia vs Taiwan/US/Japan), economic decline and downfall, the world-economy still U.S. centered History is contingent and unpredictable – A combination of structural trends, human choices, unforeseeable events, making the future unpredictable