1 Analysis of Vulnerability to Climate Change Maria Fernanda Zermoglio (SEI), Barbara Huddleston, presented by Annie Roncerel, UNITAR

2 Vulnerability  What is vulnerability? Vulnerability is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to harm which is caused by a stress or shock.  What is weather(climate)-related vulnerability? Weather-related vulnerability is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to harm caused by weather-related stresses or shocks.  What is vulnerability to climate change? Vulnerability to climate change is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to harm caused by the consequences of long-term changes in weather patterns.

3 Why assessing vulnerability? “The purpose of assessing vulnerability is to be able to take appropriate actions to reduce vulnerability before the potential for damage becomes actual” (Anderson, 1995, p. 41)

4 Why assess vulnerability to climate change?  Because climate impacts do and will differ  For different people/groups of people  For different sectors  In different areas  At different times  And because  Other environmental, economic and social factors are different from one place to another  Capacity to adapt differs; people’s responses will differ

5 Underlying Causes Dynamic Pressures Unsafe Conditions Poverty Few skills or assets Lack of diversity in sources of livelihood Economic & cultural rigidities No insurance Macro-forces Investment patterns Market performance Population growth Urbanization Environmental degradation Fragile physical environment Dangerous locations Vulnerable infrastructure Fragile local economy Livelihoods at risk Low income levels Trigger events Storms Flooding Landslides Drought Hazard DISASTER What causes vulnerability? Inability to cope

6 What are climate change hazards?  Known hazardous impacts  Increased uncertainty  Greater variability and randomness in the occurrence of natural climatic phenomena  Knowledge uncertainty -- we don't know everything about the earth system and we can’t make completely accurate scientific predictions about how it will behave or how society will respond to changes

7 Who / What is at risk?  Livelihood groups  Environmental elements  Socio-economic systems  Infrastructure

8 Meteorological and socio- economic databases Ability to “see” + = Who? Subsistence farmers in the foothills What? Increased frequency of droughts Where? Senqu River valley Visualisation

9 Seasonal calendar in Mali

10 What actions are needed to reduce risk and vulnerability?  Actions that manage risk  Actions that strengthen resilience  Actions that mitigate climate change

11 Acting to address vulnerability to climate change = ADAPTATION!  What’s the benefit of integrating mitigation and adaptation?  What’s ongoing that can be strengthened?  What’s needed that is not yet being done ?

12 Objectives of working sessions Deepen understanding of climate change and the variety of impacts it may have Explore implications of climate change for different ecosystems and livelihood groups in specific country settings Identify actions that IFAD could promote to respond to climate change consistent with already identified strategic opportunities and ongoing country programmmes

13 Challenges of climate change: Four country cases DROUGHT-PRONE REGIONS: WHERE COPING IS A WAY OF LIFE  The Case of Northeastern Brazil DRYLANDS: ADAPTATION IN WATER-SCARCE ENVIRONMENTS  The Case of Jordan SMALL ISLAND STATES: IS NATIONAL SURVIVAL AN OPTION?  The Case of the Maldives DESERTS: EXPLOITING THE ENERGY OF THE SUN  The Case of Mauritania

14 About the exercise  We will divide into five working groups, with each one assigned to explore vulnerabilities and response options for the five selected countries.  You will have until 10:30 to prepare a working group report comprised of two flipcharts.  One chart should contain a handrawn map of the country that shows:  current and future climate change hazards  ecosystems  vulnerable livelihood groups  The other should contain a short list of bullet points, covering:  strategic priorities of current IFAD programme in the country  adaptive actions best suited to address climate change hazards and vulnerabilities in the country  match or mismatch between the two  options for adjusting the IFAD country programme to incorporate response to climate change

15 What’s in your packets  Powerpoint notes pages  Climate change brochure (see Table: Climate and ecosystem interactions, pp )  Figure: Effects of global warming on the earth system  Map of the country  General background notes on the country  List: Current IFAD programme priorities in the country  Table: Options for responding to climate change

16 AND NOW Join your country working group and begin! Thank you