What should voters know? Information and its importance to the electoral process.

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Presentation transcript:

What should voters know? Information and its importance to the electoral process

What functions do elections serve in a democracy? 1. Supply legitimacy 2. Solve principal-agent problems 3. Ensure governmental responsiveness

What role should information play in the electoral process? What should voters know?

What do voters know? Not much.

Institutions and rules The good news: the United States is a democracy (88%) presidents serve 4 years (93%) know that popular votes don’t elect the president (69%)

Institutions and Rules The bad news The length of a House term or a Senate term (30%, 25%) Can Name two or three branches of government (27%, 19%)

Important people in politics 99% can name the US president 25% can name both of their US Senators 29% can correctly name their representative in the House

Facts related to politics 31% can describe affirmative action 35% can say where most immigrants are coming from 19% can locate Colombia on a map 39% can locate Massachusetts on a map 15% can say what the New Deal was

Irrationality "Requiring most businesses to offer health insurance to their employees, with tax incentives for small business owners to do so" 2/17-18/10 –Favor: 75 Oppose: 20Unsure: 5 "Requiring that all Americans have health insurance, with the government providing financial help to those who can't afford it" 2/17-18/10 –Favor: 59Oppose: 36Unsure: 5 "If health coverage is required for everyone, imposing fines on individuals who don't obtain coverage and on larger businesses that don't offer it" 2/17-18/10 –Favor: 28Oppose: 62Unsure: 10 Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Feb , N=1,009 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.6 (for all adults).

Irrationality "As you know, after the man in [the Christmas Day] incident was turned over to the FBI, agents read him the statement of his rights, including the right to remain silent, that is read to all people who are arrested by the police or the FBI in this country. Do you think the FBI should or should not have done that?" N=522 (Form A), MoE ± 4.5 Should: 65Should not: 33 Unsure: 2 "As you know, the police and FBI agents always inform suspects of their constitutional right to remain silent and to have a lawyer present during any questioning. Do you think law enforcement officials should or should not follow this practice for people who are suspected of attempting to commit an act of terrorism?" N=501 (Form B), MoE ± 4.5 Should: 56Should not: 43Unsure: 2 CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb , N=1,023 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).

Question wording effects “Do you favor or oppose direct US Military action against Iraq at this time? – Gallup, 8/3-4/1990, 23% favor, 68% oppose Would you approve or disapprove of using US troops to force the Iraqis to leave Kuwait? – Gallup, 8/9-12/1990, 64% agree, 36% disagree ”Should or should not the US take military action if Iraq refuses to withdraw from Kuwait? –NBC/WSJ, 8/18/1990, 49% should, 51% should not

Recognition, not recall Mann and Wolfinger, 1980

Why so little? Mostly from the media (mostly horse-race, scandal, and conflict, if anything) Complex processes Most elections aren’t competitive, so why bother

Maybe “Voters are not fools”? It’s ok to use low information rationality and shortcuts like party It’s ok to change your mind and so not have consistent positions It’s ok to vote based on past performance Information doesn’t matter at all because voting is about values and trust Maybe the Drunkard’s search is really rational?